Despite increases in some violent crimes, the overall crime rate in Anchorage, pulled down by big decreases in property crimes, fell by more than 12 percent in 2008, according to Anchorage police data released Monday.
The data, compiled by police for the FBI's annual Uniform Crime Report, indicates 2008, with a total of 11,857 recorded crimes in the seven categories reported, saw the fewest total crimes since 1980. The rate of crime per 100,000 residents last year was 4,253, which was also a decline, according to the data.
"Based on the UCR measurements, crime is down. It's the lowest it's been in 28 years," police chief Rob Heun said. But "it's real important that people recognize that this is a function of reported crime. There's a lot of crime that goes on that just doesn't get reported."
While the population of Anchorage has been rising fairly consistently since the late 1980s, crime has followed the opposite track, according to the data. Crime reached a 20-year high in 1994 with 18,662 total crimes, for a rate per 100,000 of 8,483, and has been in decline since.
"Overall since the mid-90s, the crime rates have been going down slightly," said Alan McKelvie, research director at the Alaska Justice Statistical Analysis Center at the University of Alaska Anchorage.
"There's a slight downward trend, but we're dealing with such small numbers that it's really hard to put any confidence bounds around the trends because if we have one person who goes on a spree, you've got a 200 percent jump in robberies or homicides."
In fact, there were only 10 reportable murders in 2008 -- which matched 1990 and 2001 for the lowest number in more than 20 years -- compared with 23 in 2007. That drop caused an impressive-sounding, although statistically specious, 56 percent decline in murders for the year, Heun said.
Overall, violent crimes increased by more than 7 percent, with aggravated assaults the driving force behind that number. With 1,830 recorded instances, assaults were up by more than 9 percent. Forcible rapes increased by more than 2 percent to 263.
Property crimes, including theft and burglary, were down significantly in 2008 and helped pull down the overall rate, Heun said. A decrease of 1,901 property crimes from 2007 brought the total to 9,211 for a 17 percent decline.
The only property crime that increased last year was robbery, which was up nearly 20 percent over the previous year, to 543 reported cases.
"If you look at the variation through the years, it's not unusual to see a 20 percent variation through the years -- up or down," police Lt. Dave Parker said.
The most precipitous fall in property crimes was vehicle thefts, which dropped by nearly 40 percent to 766. Burglary saw an 18 percent decline, dropping from 1,454 incidents in 2007 to 1,191 last year. Other thefts dropped by 13 percent to 7,254, according to the data.
Police attribute the overall decline in crime here to normal fluctuations, more officers on the streets and more arrests of offenders.
Heun said the number of homicides may be down in part because of increased targeting of drug and weapons offenders under the Safe Streets Task Force, which allows police to charge offenders in federal court. Property crimes are affected by neighborhood watch groups helping prevent crimes like burglaries as well as increases in arrests, he said.
"When you arrest one burglar," Heun said, "a lot of times you'll get more than one burglary that he's responsible for. So in 2008, we made 157 arrests for burglary, so we're getting some of the burglars off the street. And the fellows involved in burglary are generally involved in thefts too."
There were a total of 19,357 arrests for all reportable crimes in 2008, up from 16,814 in 2007.
Comparisons with national data were not available because the FBI is still preparing its annual report.
But according to preliminary FBI data collected during the first half of 2008, law enforcement agencies nationwide reported a 3.5 percent decrease in violent crimes compared with the same period in 2007. Property crimes decreased by 2.5 percent during the same period.
McKelvie said local crime data can reveal some interesting facts. For example, most types of crime in Anchorage peak in July and reach a low in February -- possibly because people are most active in summer, he said. But big fluctuations caused by the small numbers make it hard to identify trends in specific crimes, he said.
"It's a good general indication, but there's not really anything specific that you can really grab a hold of," McKelvie said. "But the trouble we have is if you start looking at particular crimes, like trying to tease apart burglary to find out what's going on with it, it becomes very difficult to do."
Find James Halpin online at adn.com/contact/jhalpin or call him at 257-4589.
By JAMES HALPIN
jhalpin@adn.com