UAA coach Matt Thomas called this a rebuilding season for his team before the first puck dropped, and he wasn't alone – his Western Collegiate Hockey Association peers picked the Seawolves to finish ninth among 10 teams, and the circuit's media predicted they would extend their lease in the league basement.
None of that was startling. UAA had lost two of its best defensemen and two of its best forwards to graduation, and its new edition was young – 13 of 20 players dressed in the season opener were either sophomores or freshmen.
Also, UAA finished last in the league last season.
Yet, heading into the regular season's final series this weekend – on the road against rival UAF – the eighth-place Seawolves have a shot at holding their place and seizing the WCHA's last playoff spot. Doing so would also deny the ninth-place Nanooks the postseason.
If the Seawolves make the playoffs, the season's a win for them.
Despite their losing record – 11-18-3.
Despite their misery since the holiday break – 3-11-0 in that stretch.
Despite a lineup thinned to the bone by injuries and other obstacles – Thomas last weekend in two home losses to league-leading Minnesota State-Mankato dressed 11 forwards and seven defensemen instead of the usual 12 and six.
If the Seawolves don't make the playoffs, they will be left with regret.
UAA already has delivered more overall wins and more WCHA wins than last season. But the Seawolves will be severely bummed if they don't make the playoffs, especially after a first half – 7-8-3 overall, 5-5-2 WCHA – that was relatively promising and set them up for a playoff spot. If they don't make the playoffs, they will have basically only matched low expectations.
Still, they continue to control their fate, in no small part because UAF hasn't been very good in the second half either. The Seawolves own a two-point lead on the Nanooks for the final playoff spot. They need two points at the Carlson Center this weekend to clinch that berth.
UAF needs three points to jump over the Seawolves and grab the last playoff berth. The Nanooks took three points at Sullivan Arena in December with a 2-1 win and 1-1 tie.
At stake too is the Governor's Cup, which no current Seawolf has won and no current Nanook has failed to win. UAF has won the Cup six straight seasons, though it had to vacate three of them for NCAA violations.
Just as this weekend could be glorious or grim for UAA, ditto for UAF. Think about it – the Nanooks could not only leap over UAA for the final playoff spot and win the Cup yet again, but they could send the Seawolves packing for the season.
One team is going to be very happy come Saturday night and one team is going to be haunted by what might have been. Frankly, both clubs could use the emotional lift because it's not like either has been lights-out, or even remotely electric, lately. UAA and UAF are both 2-8-0 in their last 10 games. UAA is 3-11-0 since the holiday break, UAF 3-10-1.
The Nanooks are beat up too. They've gone the last six games without senior center Tyler Morley, the best player on either club. Forwards John Mullally and Austin Vieth have also been out with injuries. That has forced bench boss Dallas Ferguson to use defensemen at forward.
If the December series between the teams was any indication, goals might be hard to come by this weekend – could be, as Thomas said, "a test of wills more than skills.'' UAF's Jesse Jenks and UAA's Olivier Mantha were both sharp in that December series. Mantha is coming off a strong two-game set against Minnesota State-Mankato -- .921 save percentage – and UAF's Davis Jones, who replaced Jenks following Michigan Tech's four-goal first period last Friday, stopped 77 of 82 shots (.939) the rest of the way in that series.
UAF lost two heartbreakers at Michigan Tech. The Nanooks fell 6-5 on a last-minute goal Friday, after storming back from a 4-0 deficit to forge a 5-5 tie, then lost 3-2 in overtime Saturday.
Recent history between UAA and UAF has been filled with delightfully close games. In the last nine meetings between the teams stretching back to UAA's elimination of UAF in the first round of the 2014 WCHA playoffs, there have been eight games decided by one goal and a tie. The teams split those nine games – 4-4-1.
Wouldn't hurt the Seawolves to mix in a power-play goal. They have gone five games without one and have converted just 4 of 81 chances in the last 22 games. That is not a typo.
Even so, opportunity lies in front of the Seawolves this weekend, when they can either seize a reward or stomach regret.
Reach Doyle Woody at dwoody@alaskadispatch.com, check out his blog at adn.com/hockeyblog and follow him on Twitter at @JaromirBlagr
UAA
11-18-3 overall, 8-16-2 WCHA
at
UAF
8-20-4 overall, 6-16-4 WCHA
Friday and Saturday night, 7:07 p.m.
TV: Tape delayed, 10 p.m., GCI Channel 1 and 999 (HD)