Let's talk about money.
I don't know if you've got enough money to be worth talking about. I don't. But together, we -- and every other Alaskan -- have a pile of money. Not a Denali-sized pile, but nothing to sneeze at.
Most of it -- about $40 billion at last count -- is in the Alaska Permanent Fund. It's what's left of the Prudhoe Bay oil bonanza: money saved by law since 1980, direct deposits by the Legislature and the earnings from all that.
Sound good? There's more.
The legislature has also siphoned about $10 billion into the Constitutional Budget Reserve over the years, money that is supposed to be used when state income is too small or state spending is too big.
And if that's not enough, there's the Statutory Budget Reserve, money that is stashed away to be spent whenever -- well, whenever the Legislature wants to. That's supposed to be worth $2.2 billion as soon as the governor signs the budgets.
While the Statutory Budget Reserve is easy to get at, the rest of the money lies behind legal or political barriers. Still, it's there, waiting for those with sufficient resolve -- and political clout --to spend it.
Good numbers, right? The public purse is fat and we're sweating against silk.
Except.
Except that the Legislature hasn't made a voluntary general fund deposit into the Permanent Fund since 1985. I tried to make one this session. No dice. Instead, surplus funds are being parked in places that are a lot easier to get at, both legally and politically.
Except that state spending keeps growing. Not counting the money Uncle Sam gives us, we plan to spend about $10 billion in the next year. That's a record. And there's no sign that nonprofits, agencies, construction companies -- all the people and concerns that benefit from state spending -- want us to cut back.
Except that almost all of that money comes from oil production, and Alaska oil production has been dropping since 1987. Only the increasing value of oil is keeping us in the black. In that way, paying for the budget we just passed is a complete crapshoot.
And, finally, except that we politicians haven't dived into the deep end on any of the big ideas some of us have. Yet.
What big ideas? Here's a partial list:
• Energy: The sky's the limit
• An in-state gas pipeline: $8.4 billion
• The Susitna dam: $4.5 billion to $10 billion
• Road to Nome: $3 billion
• The oil industry giveaway: $1.5 billion to $2 billion a year.
• Transportation fund: $1 billion
You get the idea. There are far more ideas than money to pay for them. Some of them are just ideas. But several have advanced to active planning. Build the cheapest Susitna dam and in-state gas line and you've spent everything but your annual income and the Permanent Fund. (Actually, the in-state pipeline will also require an annual subsidy, and another $70 million or so a year to operate.)
So we could pay for one, maybe two big projects. Or a lot of smaller projects. (The $130 million to finish the Point MacKenzie rail spur is looking like chump change by comparison.)
Except.
Except that to keep up with the rising cost of the budgets and compensate for falling oil production, Alaska oil has to be more valuable each year. In fiscal year 2010, it had to be worth $64 a barrel. In the current year, $76 a barrel. Next year, $92.50 a barrel.
How long can we keep that up? Let alone pay for multi-billion-dollar add-ons? Just the increase in the operating budgets is enough to give me the shakes. How about you?
Seriously. Give this some thought.
Let's talk about money.
Mike Doogan, D-Anchorage, has served in the state House of Representatives since 2007.
By MIKE DOOGAN