Greg Cote’s Week 16 NFL picks

Happy holidays, y’all! Our sizzlin’ hot run straight-up continued last week with a big 14-2 record, but the betting line again proved tougher at an even 8-8 against the spread. We nailed our Upset of the Week with Cowboys winning at Carolina, scored a second outright upset bull’s-eye on Buccaneers beating Chargers, and also had a ‘dog-with-points cover by Rams vs. Niners. We’re still on the right side of .500 ATS but need a strong finish. Let’s do it! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was Broncos (9-5, +3) over @Chargers (8-6), 23-18.]

———

Week 15: 14-2, .875 overall; 8-8, .500 vs. spread.

Season: 152-72, 679 overall; 114-106-4, .518 vs. spread.

———

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 16 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

STEELERS (10-4) at RAVENS (9-5)

Line: BAL by 6 1/2.

Cote’s pick: BAL, 21-20.

TV: 4:30 p.m. Saturday, Fox.

[Playoffs: PIT has clinched; BAL is in with a win and still hugely likely even with a loss.] Saturday’s late-afternoon game arguably is the NFL’s best rivalry and a guaranteed good one. Baltimore can tie its nemesis for the AFC North lead with a win. Nemesis? Pitt has beaten the Ravens four games in a row and eight of the past nine including 18-16 in Week 11 — and also won the past four straight 200-mile trips to Charm City. This is the one foe Lamar Jackson has not solved, and the availability of Pitt’s top defender T.J. Watt (questionable but expected to play) won’t help. But Ravens are just plain past-due to win in a series history recently full of consistently close, low-scoring games. The points margin in the past nine meetings has been 2, 7, 7, 3, 2, 3, 1, 5 and 4. That’s crazy. From any vantage you come at it, from the Steelers’ recent dominance to the relentless parade of tight games, the point spread here looks fat.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Broncos (9-5, +3) over @Chargers (8-6), 23-18, on Thursday night was our Upset of the Week: [Playoff status: DEN clinches with win; LAC can clinch with win and help.].

THE REST OF WEEK 16:

@Chiefs (13-1, -3 1/2) over Texans (9-5), 24-17: [Playoffs: Both have clinched.] Betting line swung five points midweek with the news Patrick Mahomes had a full practice and seemed likely to start in Saturday’s early game despite enduring a mild high ankle sprain last week. Would seem a prudent precaution to let him sit and start proven backup Carson Wentz, but K.C. still is looking to lock up AFC’s No. 1 seed. Weather at mid-30s and sunny shouldn’t be a factor, but Chiefs are 7-0 at Arrowhead. Texans are pretty good not great and needed the gift of four Dolphins turnovers for last week’s one-score win.

@Falcons (7-7, -9) over Giants (2-12), 22-16: [Playoffs: ATL needs win to boost wobbly hopes, though not out even with loss; NYG was eliminated during Eisenhower Administration.] Atlanta benched pick-prone Kirk Cousins and is handing QB reins to rookie Michael Penix Jr. Birds obviously think that makes ‘em better. Oddsmakers were less sure, reducing ATL from a 10-point fave. Giants expect Drew Lock back at QB. (Is that a good thing?) NYG has lost nine straight and is 2-4 on road, but all four L’s by one score. With ATL 1-3 as a favorite and figuring a Penix turnover or two, lean Biggies with points.

Lions (12-2, -6 1/2) over @Bears (4-10), 34-16: [Playoffs: DET is in; CHI is out.] Detroit lost RB David Montgomery and a couple of key defenders to injuries in last week’s wild 48-42 loss to Bills and saw its Super Bowl hopes take a perceived hit. But Lions remain in three-way fight for NFC’s No. 1 seed, and Jared Goff is 10-1 on TDs/picks and averaged 332.7 air yards in past three games. DET offense remains elite, and Bears in an eight-game skid have topped 20 points only one time.

@Bengals (6-8, -8) over Browns (3-11), 28-17: [Playoffs: CIN is eliminated with loss and would need miracle even with win; CLE is way out.] Cleveland has axed the Jameis Winston experiment and in from the bullpen comes Dorian Thompson-Robinson. But Browns will be missing RB Nick Chubb and maybe TE David Njoku. Cincy has won past two at home over its state rival by 30 points and should roll again as Joe Burrow aims to extend six-game streak with three-plus TD passes.

@Colts (6-8, -3 1/2) over Titans (3-11), 21-16: [Playoffs: IND (like MIA) would be extreme long shot even with a win; TEN is long out.] Wild hunch: Fewest turnovers wins? These teams combined for 11 turnovers last week led by leaky QB play. Titans have since benched Will Levis for Mason Rudolph, while. Colts hold breath with every Anthony Richardson dropback. Colts have won three straight in series, and home field and flickering playoff hope should be enough again.

Rams (8-6, -3) over @Jets (4-10), 27-23: [Playoffs: LAR would be playoff-likely with a win and still contending even with loss; NYJ are out.] Rams lead NFC West on heel of three straight wins and should keep the mo’ going. LAR have had zero turnovers in that run, are rested after playing last Thursday, and now face a Jets team on an 0-4 skid straight-up and 1-3 ATS as a dog. Beware, though: Aaron Rodgers has been really good lately, the Davante Adams magic is rekindled, and if you’re casting for a Week 16 upset pick, this one might tempt.

Eagles (12-2, -3 1/2) over @Commanders (9-5), 30-20: [Playoffs: PHI is in; WAS will be all but in with win and still have solid shot even with loss.] Our Game of the Week runner-up finds Eagles still circling for the No. 1 NFC seed and oozing Super Bowl cred on a 10-game win streak. Philly D has allowed under 20 points in five of past six games, and Saquon Barkley is percolating on 2K pace. Birds have won three in a row and six of seven in division rivalry, and in 26-18 PHI win in November, Barkley bulled through Comms for 146 yards and two TDs.

Cardinals (7-7, -5) over @Panthers (3-11), 28-17: [Playoffs: ARI has very small chance even with a win; CAR is way out.] It’s Kyler Murray vs. Bryce Young in a duel of former Heisman winners and No. 1 draft picks to spice this matchup. Arizona is still in hunt to win wide-open NFC West but must win this. Carolina has lost four straight and in past three has allowed at least 200 yards rushing, hinting at a big day for James Conner.

Vikings (12-2, -3) over @Seahawks (8-6), 24-20: [Playoffs: MIN is in; SEA must win or face long odds.] Large playoff stakes as Vikes still jockey for No. 1 NFC seed and Hawks for NFC West crown. Geno Smith looks good to go for SEA despite hurting a knee last week, and air not ground is how to attack MIN. But Vikes’ sack unit should dominate Seahawks’ O-line and hound Smith into mistakes. Minnesota has been better on road (5-1) than Seattle is at home, and Sam Darnold is hot.

@Bills (11-3, -14) over Patriots (3-11), 41-10: [Playoffs: BUF is in; NE is way out.] Bills have very little chance to catch K.C. for No. 1 AFC seed and in wake of that thrilling shootout win over Detroit could face a letdown here. But home crowd and division foe should prevent that. Buffs offense is en fuego with Josh Allen now a clear MVP fave. Bills have totaled 125 points in past three games, and four of Pats’ losses have been by 14-plus points.

Jaguars (3-11, +1 1/2) over @Raiders (2-12), 19-17: [Playoffs: Both are way eliminated.] These are two of the seven teams in the sad hunt for the No. 1 overall draft pick. Vegas expects Aidan O’Connell back, but I lean Mac Jones in the C-list QB duel vs. a bad Raiders pass defense made worse by the injury absence of defensive linchpin-sacker Maxx Crosby. Vegas and future ex-coach Antonio Pierce are on a short week and a 10-game losing streak. Upset!

49ers (6-8, +1) over @Dolphins (6-8), 23-20: [Playoff status: SF hopes are on life support and would be even with a win. MIA is in better shape — but not by much.] It’s a near-pick-’em game as two of the season’s most disappointing teams collide — both trying to keep alive playoff hopes that have all but flat-lined. This one is must-win on steroids. Based on percentile metrics, Miami presently has a 5% playoff likelihood that would bump up to 12% with a win and fall to a near-dead 1% with a loss. San Fran’s current 1% likelihood would stay there with a win and fall to zero (elimination) with a loss. The Niners, the team Mike McDaniel coached in 2017-21 before coming to Miami, will be playing in the 3-0-5 for first time since 2016. QBs Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa both are coming off bad performances in losses, and chances are the one who best avoids turnovers wins. Whichever of two erratic running games gets going best also will be huge factor. [Quick aside: Tyreek Hill’s cryptic tweet this week — “It’s time for me to go coach” — was jocularly dismissed by McDaniel, and likewise I had not read much into it beyond Hill’s fondness for social-media trolling and the frustrated impetus of his and his team’s off years.] This is a coin-flip game, but with the 49ers owning the rest/prep edge after playing last Thursday and the Fins maybe missing Jaylen Waddle to a knee injury, I give a razor-thin lean to Niners. Upset! Well, a micro-mini upset, OK?

Buccaneers (8-6, -4) over @Cowboys (6-8), 27-24: [Playoffs: TB will all but clinch with a win and still be on solid ground even with loss; DAL must win to remain in need of miracle..] Not a great Sunday night matchup, although Jerry Jones fuming in a home suite is always prime-time fodder. Teams’ last meeting was in 2022 wild-card playoffs, a 31-14 Dallas win, so Bucs have payback in the pocket and can eliminate Team Jerry from all playoff hope with a win. Baker Mayfield has TB on a four-game win streak, but Cooper Rush and RB Rico Dowdle have been good enough lately to see ‘Boys inside the spread.

@Packers (10-4, -14 1/2) over Saints (5-9), 24-13: [Playoffs: GB clinches with a win but remains extremely playoff-likely even with loss; NO with a win would still need to hit the lottery.] Lambeau Feld in winter is always a delicious tableau for Monday Night Football, especially with light snow expected. N’Awlins QB Derek Carr is likely done for the season and RB Alvin Kamara is iffy to play. Pack RB Josh Jacobs should gobble up Saints weak run defense, but lean Fleur-de-lis with the points in what figures as a low-scoring game given the conditions.