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The Buffalo Bills scored six offensive touchdowns (three rushing and three passing) and didn’t turn the ball over in Sunday’s 44-42 loss at the Los Angeles Rams. Up until that point, teams with those stats were 41-0 in the Super Bowl era (including the playoffs), with all of them winning by at least seven points. Yet Buffalo couldn’t cover a 4½-point spread, putting another loss on my ledger.
I shouldn’t complain too much, as chaos helped us cover our bet on the Cincinnati Bengals -5½ against the Dallas Cowboys. The score was tied at 20 at the two-minute warning, with Dallas set to get the ball back after a blocked punt, but Amani Oruwariye was unable to secure the ball and Cincinnati regained possession. Ja’Marr Chase’s ensuing touchdown catch secured us a winning wager.
Best bets record in 2024: 9-22
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-2½)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. | Prime Video
Pick: 49ers -2½
The Rams are coming off that big win against the Bills but find themselves as the underdog again on short rest. These situations have not proved fruitful for the team catching points again on Thursday nights. Since 2002, teams in this situation are 13-22 against the spread and miss covering by almost three points per game, per TruMedia. With the spread already under the key number of three, I am comfortable backing San Francisco. Teams like the Rams are also a paltry 8-27 straight-up over that span in these situations, making the 49ers money line look enticing, too.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-3½)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Under 45 points (The pick is Broncos -3½, but it is not a best bet)
The Broncos are one of the best defensive teams in the NFL. Opponents are scoring almost eight fewer points per game against them after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each play, per TruMedia. Aaron Schatz’s defense-adjusted value over average agrees and ranks their defense fifth overall after adjusting their efficiency for strength of schedule.
Plus, when two teams coming off a bye meet in a game with a total greater than 40, the under has cashed almost 60 percent of the time since 2002, per TruMedia. Over this year and last year, the under is 12-0. In a game that could prove pivotal for playoff positioning, I like the under.
The plays above represent our best bets of the week because our analysis shows their value is the most lucrative compared with what we expect to happen on the field. Below, you will find against-the-spread picks for all of the games on this week’s schedule.
However, trying to pick every game is something of a fool’s errand. The house wins so often partly because bettors try to make too many plays when the odds aren’t in their favor. Keep that in mind when evaluating the remaining games from this week’s schedule.
Baltimore Ravens (-14½) at New York Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Giants +14½
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (-2½)
Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Panthers -2½
Kansas City Chiefs (-4½) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Chiefs -4½
Cincinnati Bengals (-4½) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Bengals -4½
Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (-2½)
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Texans -2½
New York Jets (-3½) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Jaguars +3½
Washington Commanders (-7) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Commanders -7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Buccaneers +3
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-5½)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Eagles -5½
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (-5½)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Cardinals -5½
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (-1½)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Lions -1½
Green Bay Packers (-2½) at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. | NBC
Pick: Packers -2½
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-7)
Monday, 8 p.m. | ABC
Pick: Vikings -7
Atlanta Falcons (-4½) at Las Vegas Raiders
Monday, 8:30 p.m. | ESPN
Pick: Falcons -4½