Greg Cote’s Week 9 NFL picks

Kept the hot hand by spinning a 12-4 mark straight-up last week, including a trio of outright upset bull’s-eyes with Commanders over Bears, Rams over Vikings and Eagles winning at Cincy. Granted, got super-lucky with Washington on on that last-play Hail Mary touchdown, but we’ll take it, thank you. Big disappointment was misfiring on Miami’s home loss to ‘Zona. Was sitting pretty up 26-18 early in fourth, but then the Dolphins defense stood up like a straw hut in a hurricane. (Not that I’m bitter!) In addition to the trio of outright upsets we also had Browns-with-points covering vs. Ravens, although going 8-8 vs. the spread is just holding serve. Let’s keep our good run going as we dig into the second half of the regular season! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was Texans (6-2, +2) over @Jets (2-6) in upset, 23-20.]

———

Week 8: 12-4, .750 overall; 8-8, .500 vs. spread.

Season: 76-47, .618 overall; 62-58-3, .517 vs. spread.

———

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 8 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

LIONS (6-1) at PACKERS (6-2)

Line: DET by 3.

Cote’s pick: DET, 34-27.

TV: 4:25 p.m. Sunday, Fox.

Detroit is on pace to score 602 points in this 17-game regular season. NFL record is 606 by Denver in 2013 (in 16 games). In past four games this Lions’ five-game win streak they have averaged 43 points. Yet this is a battle for first place in the rugged NFC North. Lions have nudged ahead of San Fran in betting odds to be conference rep in Super Bowl. Green Bay doesn’t have such hype but has been quietly quite good. A thorn in this pick: Pack QB Jordan Love (groin) practiced Thursday and seemed on track to play, but might he be limited? Gee Bees’ D leads NFL with 19 takeaways and Lions are next with 15, so turnovers may steer outcome at the hands of two disruptive defenses, with temps around 50 and possible rain increasing the chance of that. Pack will likely need a turnover edge to derail sizzlin’ Jared Goff’s offense and score the upset. Detroit has won past two trips to Lambeau Field. Make it three.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

COWBOYS (3-4) at FALCONS (5-3)

Line: ATL by 3.

Cote’s pick: DAL, 30-27.

TV: 1 p.m. Sunday, Fox.

“AAAWWWK!” booms the Upset Bird. “Cowbaaawwwk!” I sort of get why Falcons are favored, but I think injury-walloped Dallas is better than its record and still can vie for playoff spot and, by habit, it’s hard to believe Atlanta is this good. Cowboys have a better record away (3-1) than Falcs do at home (2-3) and all seven of Kirk Cousins’ interceptions have come in the ATL. No team misses any injured player more than Dallas misses Micah Parsons, but Boys are well-positioned for a shootout here. Falcons defense is dead last in NFL in sacks, so Dak Prescott should have the time and space for a big game. “No attack on Dak,” summarizes U-Bird. “Dallas’ sad ground game might even be able to run the ball vs. this run-D. Run the baawwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 9:

Thursday night pick was Texans (6-2, +2) over @Jets (2-6), 23-20: Upset!

@Bills (6-2, -6) over Dolphins (2-5), 31-20: Week 9 of the NFL season kicks off on Halloween night and ends the day before we find out the U.S. presidential election result — truly a terrifying week in America! Could be pretty scary for Dolphins fans, too. Should be gorgeous football weather in Buffalo (mid-50s, clear), but the temperature-read on this matchup skews turbulent for Miami. Dolfans know it well: Bills have won five straight and 12 of last 13 in this AFC East rivalry — and eight straight played in western New York. Buffalo is 3-0 at home and rides a three-game overall win streak, while Fins are coming off a blown-lead home loss to Arizona. It’s just hard to imagine in what reasonable world the Dolphins could have packed much real confidence for this trip to Billsville. Miami also will play with defensive injuries against an opponent that leads the NFL with a plus-11 turnover ratio. Tua Tagovailoa was solid-to-good in his return from a concussion last week, but it will take more than him to conjure an upset here. It will take great protection for him, a time-eating ground game, and strong defense that forces a couple of turnovers — all the things Miami did not have at home in a 31-10 loss to Buffs in Week 2. I’m sorry, am I conveying pessimism? Miami’s best hope might be Bills overconfidence (who could blame ‘em?) or, given the recent series, the law of averages suddenly kicking in.

@Bengals (3-5, -7) over Raiders (2-6), 24-18: Cincy is 0-4 at home despite Joe Burrow’s 111.5 passer rating there with nine TDs. Home skid must end here for any shot at a climb back into playoff contention. And will. Lean Vegas with the points, though. Tee Higgins may be missing again, and Raiders’ pass defense is (perhaps surprisingly) top 10.

Chargers (4-3, -1 1/2) over @Browns (2-6), 20-16: LAC coach Jim Harbaugh makes his return to Ohio, where by birthright they hate him from his U-Michigan days. Cleveland played great in home upset of Baltimore last week, riding a bump from Jameis Winston’s first start. But see Winston struggling vs. Bolts’ No. 1-ranked scoring defense. Ball safety (two turnovers all season) and defense have been winning for Harbaugh.

@Titans (1-6, -3 1/2) over Patriots (2-6), 19-17: Two bad offenses intersect in Nashville, both with QB issues. Patriots’ Drake Maye is iffy (concussion), but Jacoby Brissett is OK. Titans’ Will Levis remains iffy (shoulder), but backup Mason Rudolph has been an upgrade. New England has clear path to upset if Titans’ plague of turnovers continues. Otherwise, Lean Tenners to snap an 0-3 home skid but Pats to stay inside the bet-line in low-points affair.

Commanders (6-2, -4) over @Giants (2-6), 24-21: Washington lucked to beat Chicago on miracle Hail Mary last week while NYG lost to Pitt on Monday night. Now Commanders seek first season sweep of Biggies since ‘21 after winning 21-18 Sept. 15. Though Giants are 0-4 at home, lean them to cover. An outright upset would not surprise, although Daniel Jones’ offense (28 total points, two TDs across three straight losses) is nothing to trust.

Saints (2-6, -7) over @Panthers (1-7), 27-16: Remember when Saints won first two games 47-10 (over Carolina) and 44-19 and for a minute Derek Carr was the first darling of this NFL season? Sorry to torture you with he memory, N’Awlins. Team has since flushed its hopes, though Carolina is everybody’s temporary remedy. Carr is expected back from three weeks’ out injured. Andy Dalton is healthy again for Panthers but looks like Bryce Young gets the call.

@Ravens (5-3, -9 1/2) over Broncos (5-3), 27-20: John Harbaugh’s always-good Ravens coming off surprise loss at Cleveland; surprising-good Broncos have Sean Payton in coach-of-the-year chatter at season’s midpoint. Denver is 5-1 since move to rookie QB Bo Nix. BAL traded for WR Diontae Johnson but unsure he’ll debut here. Crows will lean on run-game as always, though DEN’s run D is top 10. Ravens on the rebound, but Broncos are 3-1 away and should cover a big betting line.

@Eagles (5-2, -7 1/2) over Jaguars (2-6), 34-17: Jax coach Doug Pederson arrives in Philly to face the team he coached for nine seasons, head coached from 2016 to 2020 and won the 2017 season Super Bowl. (Eagles fans will probably boo him anyway). Don’t see a smooth homecoming on the scoreboard, either. Though Jags gave Green Bay a big fight last week, Trevor Lawrence is 0-4 away, and Birds have been hot since their bye, winning three straight with strong defense and lots of Saquon Barkley.

@Cardinals (4-4, -1 1/2) over Bears (4-3), 24-20: Feels like an upset. Isn’t. [Fast fact: Only old-timers may recall the franchise that now is Arizona (after being St. Louis) began as the Chicago Cardinals from 1920-59.] Bears lost heartbreaker on Hail Mary last week and dipped to 0-3 on road. Worse, Caleb Williams has been subpar away at 58.4 accuracy with two TDs and four picks. ‘Zona is revving up with two straight wins, Kyler Murray has been good at home and — as Dolphins fans saw firsthand last week — Marvin Harrison Jr. is the real deal.

Rams (3-4, -1 1/2) over @Seahawks (4-4), 30-20: L.A. is 0-3 away but is a different looking (and performing) team with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both back and Matthew Stafford flourishing because of it. Rams also with the rest/prep edge after playing last Thursday. Seattle hopes to have WR DK Metcalf back but Hawks problem isn’t offense. In its 1-4 skid SEA is allowing an average of 168 rushing yards, so Kyren Williams’ fantasy managers might be smiling as well.

@Vikings (5-2, -5) over Colts (4-4), 28-20: Storyline on each ream for Sunday night TV crew: Minny — Are wheels coming off or at least wobbling with two straight losses and 61 points allowed? Indy — Wise to bench struggling young QB Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco “moving forward”? Answers — No, and yes. Colts are better with Flacco, 39, at least in short-term, and but look for rebound by Minnesota. Vikes coming off long week, hope for lift from TE T.J. Hoclkenson’s season debut, and Justin Jefferson is extra good in the home dome.

@Chiefs (7-0, -8 1/2) over Buccaneers (4-4), 27-20: How can K.C. keep staying unbeaten with Patrick Mahomes 23rd in passer rating? (Quick answer: Defense and champion mojo.) Mahomes and Baker Mayfield are tied for NFL lead with nine interceptions entering what looks like an entertaining Monday nighter, so turnovers may well decide this — especially with foul weather expected. Tampa (with Tom Brady) beat Chiefs in 2020-season Super Bowl, so revenge is in play for fans of intangibles. K.C. keeps winning despite injuries, and Mayfield pitched for 330 yards last week even sans top WRs Mke Evans and Chris Godwin. Look for Mahomes to maul Bucs’ 29th-ranked pass D, but look for Mayfield to keep it inside the bet-line.

[Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of Thursday mid-afternoon.]

OFF THIS WEEK

— 49ers (4-4, next @Buccaneers): San Fran got back to .500 by beating Dallas — good enough for share of first in struggling NFC West. Niners still favored, especially with star RB Christian McCaffrey’s hoped-for season debut after the bye vs. Tampa.

— Steelers (6-2, next @Commanders): Beating Giants Monday night for a third straight win has Pitt leading AFC North entering the bye, with a looming tough road test on deck at Washington.