Greg Cote’s Week 2 NFL picks

Happy Friday the 13th, paraskevidekatriaphobes. I got my bad luck out of the way early with a tough Week 1, especially against the spread. (The tie there was a push on Seahawks -6). I got a bit drunk on Upset Punch, calling five underdogs to win outright. I nailed one with Cowboys’ win at Cleveland and two others were legit gambles even in retrospect — but overestimating the Panthers and Giants made for spectacularly bad choices. Got a bit unlucky ATS as well, with three of my losses by a 1 point or a half point. We live, we learn and with shockingly buoyant confidence we attack Week 2! (Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Dolphins (-2 1/2) over Bills, 27-23.)

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Week 1/Season: 10-6, ,625 overall; 6-9-1, .406 vs. spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 2 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

BENGALS (0-1) at CHIEFS (1-0)

Line: KC by 5 1/2.

Cote’s pick: KC, 27-17.

TV: 4:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS.

The real Game of the Week was Buffalo at Miami Thursday night, but we pin the next-best medal on this one. Cincy has been a bit of a thorn for K.C. Joe Burrow is 3-1 vs. Patrick Mahomes, and the teams split in AFC championship game head-to-heads in 2021 and ‘22. But this time it’s Burrow with his surgically repaired wrist and his offense that seems out of sync and may be missing Tee Higgins again, while the Chiefs looked great in their opening win over Baltimore last Thursday — great enough to make a third straight Super Bowl win seem doable. Andy Reid’s Chiefs are 22-20 against the spread with a rest advantage, K.C.’s defense is solid and Mahomes has exciting weapons in Rashee Rice and rookie Xavier Worthy. In his 98th career game, a win here would be Mahomes’ 76th to tie Tom Brady and Roger Staubach for the most ever by a QB in his first 100 starts. Would be, and will be.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

COLTS (0-1) at PACKERS (0-1)

Line: IND by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: GB, 19-16.

TV: 1 p.m. Sunday, Fox.

“AAWWK!” touts the Upset Bird. “Green Bay Paaawwwk!” Love is lost. But hope remains. Pack QB Jordan Love is expected to miss a month or so with his knee sprain, but I expect a rallying effect in Gee Bees’ home opener, with a big defensive effort and heavy lifting by RB Josh Jacobs, who has been slowed by a minor back ailment but should play. Pack will try to insulate fill-in QB Malik Willis, who has only been with the club a month. (They should sign veteran free agent Ryan Tannehill, it says here.) As is, though, Pack was 3-1 covering as a home dog last year, is rested after playing last Friday, and will get Jacobs going against a mediocre Colts run D. “Lambeau magic,” notes U-Bird. “Lambaaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 2:

@Cowboys (1-0, -6) over Saints (1-0), 24-20: Both clubs racked up lopsided opening wins, but on the opponent scale N’awlins going from Carolina to Dallas is like going from bumper cars to the Indy 500. Like Cowboys without hesitation in their home opener, but chancing the Fleur-de-lis with the points. Saints have covered in 10 of past 15 meetings vs. Boys, and, weak opponent or not, New Orleans really impressed in Week 1.

@Lions (1-0, -7 1/2) over Buccaneers (1-0), 28-23: Lions beat Bucs 31-23 in playoffs last year and the rematch should be just as competitive. QB Baker Mayfield is enjoying a career renaissance in Tampa, his fourth team, with ageless Mike Evans the big reason. I give Bucs a medium upset shot and a better chance to cover — even though Detroit is crazy-good 38-17 against the spread under Dan Campbell. Lions are more physical on both lines, but Mayfield vs. shaky secondary will keep TB close.

Jets (0-1, -4) over @Titans (0-1), 20-10: Aaron Rodgers’ heralded Week 1 comeback game was a Monday night dud, and the Jets’ hyped-up defense disappointed. But that was against mighty San Francisco. This isn’t. NYJ has covered 10 times in past 12 vs.Titans, and expect Planes to reassert themselves — especially on defensive with domination of shaky Will Levis.

49ers (1-0, -5 1/2) over @Vikings (1-0), 27-20: Christian McCaffrey (calf/Achilles) is expected to sit again as his fantasy owners sweat, but SF proved it can run and win without him. Expect more of an air show, though. Minnesota loves blitzing, and Brock Purdy led NFL last year averaging 9.9 yards per attempt vs. the blitz. And Niners’ D should dominate Sam Darnold, who was their backup QB last year. Vikes have won seven in a row at home in series, but beware betting on eight.

Seahawks (1-0, -3 1/2) over @Patriots (1-0), 19-16: Pats’ defense led the big upset at Cincy in Week 1 and should make for another low-scoring game. Seattle won last week by stacking the box to stop the run vs. Denver because they didn’t fear rookie QB Bo NIx — and Hawks will do the same here, knowing the NE attack centers on RB Rhamondre Stevenson and not worrying much about Jacoby Brissett’s arm.

Giants (0-1, +1 1/2) over @Commanders (0-1), 24-22: Upset! Yes, I am. I am trusting Daniel Jones to be good, and trusting Washington to be the team that has lost seven straight at home and six in a row in its division. Jones is 5-1-1 vs. this foe with a 98 passer rating and 10-3 on TDs/picks. And the home team’s defense is really bad, especially vs. the pass.

Chargers (1-0, -6) over @Panthers (0-1), 34-13: I picked Carolina to win a game it lost 47-10 last week. I have since promised my therapist I would never do that again. LAC will fashion its first 2-0 start since 2012 not because the Bolts are that great, but because the Panthers are that bad. Chargers’ big pass rush and playmaking secondary should continue the misery for a befuddled Bryce Young.

@Jaguars (0-1, -3) over Browns (0-1), 21-19: Interesting matchup. QB Deshaun Watson faces yet another sexual abuse lawsuit while simultaneously being awful on the field as the Browns sink into panic mode. (The dictionary defines panic mode as “weighing alternatives that include extracting Jameis Winston from mothballs.”) Cleveland’s defense tends much better at home than on the road but should keep this close and put an outright upset in play.

@Ravens (0-1, -9) over Raiders (0-1), 37-16: Jim to John, the Raiders lost to one coach Harbaugh last week and now will face and lose to the other one. Lamar Jackson vs. Gardner Minshew is a colossal mismatch and makes Crows the biggest favorite of Week 2. BAL enjoys a rest/prep edge after playing last Thursday, and has covered seven of past eight at home vs. this opponent. Smells like a rout.

Rams (0-1, +1) over @Cardinals (0-1), 31-23: Upset! Upset? Well, technically. But I question why. Arizona has lost nine in a row at home to the Rams, and 13 of the past 15 overall. Maybe the oddsmakers are banking on the law of averages rescuing the Cards? Puka Nacua is out injured but Zona’s weak pass rush will afford Matthew Stafford ample time to find Cooper Kupp, et al. And Kyren Williams should feast on Redbirds’ bad run defense.

Steelers (1-0, -2 1/2) over @Broncos (0-1), 20-13: We’re denied Russell Wilson facing his former Broncos team; he’s out with a calf injury. So it will be run-threat Justin Fields pitching again for Pittsburgh. But this result should arise from the Steelers defense as T.J. Watt and that big pass rush continue the rough pro indoctrination of Denver rookie QB Bo Nix.

@Texans (1-0, -6 1/2) over Bears (1-0), 24-20: Sunday night’s stage will focus on the young QB matchup of Texan C.J. Stroud, the 2023 second overall draft pick, vs. Bear Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall ‘24 pick. Stroud owns the home field and the better offense — with RB Joe Mixon and WR Stefon Diggs looking like great adds. But Chicago has the defense to keep team in games while Williams develops, and to keep this one inside the betting number.

@Eagles (1-0, -6 1/2) over Falcons (0-1), 27-20: Philly’s home opener finds Jalen Hurts a nifty 20-11-1 on home turf. But the Monday night spotlight could find Eagles RB Saquon Barkley starring again. After his dreamy Philly debut last Friday in Sao Paulo, Brazil, he gets the Falcons’ soft run defense for an encore. Meanwhile new ATL QB Kirk Cousins had a bad debut last week that and appeared tentative with his plant foot on throws as if still mindful of the Achilles tear that ended his ‘23 season. Is he healthy? If so Cousins could find openings vs. a shaky Eagles secondary.

(Note: Betting lines are courtesy ESPNBet as of Thursday afternoon.)