Six outsiders that could crash the playoffs in the 2024 NFL season

Even the most casual NFL fan knows the power of parity in this league and the annual phenomenon of postseason surprises. In four straight seasons, at least six teams have made the playoffs after missing them the year before. Trying to predict which teams will make that jump is the challenge.

Of course, that’s not going to stop us from trying. And as always, we enlisted some help from a few NFL general managers, scouts, executives and analysts to attempt as educated a guess as possible. The same eight or nine teams kept coming up through this exercise, though there was uniformity about only one particular team making the jump (the Cincinnati Bengals). While it’s difficult to quantify these rankings - and most individuals were prohibited by team or NFL rules from speaking publicly about players under contract to other teams - we listed these teams in order of overall confidence about them qualifying for the playoffs, following discussions with our informal panel.

So with that out of the way … we’re on to Cincinnati:

Cincinnati Bengals

Do we have to belabor this point? They nearly made the playoffs last year despite playing in the toughest division in football and without quarterback Joe Burrow in the second half of the season. Burrow hasn’t been healthy in September much as a pro, and the quarterback seems to be on a mission now after last year’s season-ending wrist injury. This probably will be the best offensive line he has played behind, and everyone I spoke to believes the defense, which slipped in 2023, will bounce back.

“I think they fixed their problem at safety, and I like Dax Hill moving to corner,” one GM said, noting that defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is known for astute in-game adjustments. “They have the best roster in the division.” One scout who pays particular attention to the AFC North said: “They are a Super Bowl team for me.”

They get an easier schedule than the Baltimore Ravens, too, which could help decide the AFC North.

Atlanta Falcons

The NFC South is weak, and while Tampa Bay was strong in the second half last year, the Falcons got a lot of attention from my panel as a potential division winner. Kirk Cousins is a huge upgrade at quarterback over Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke, and the more people I asked about rookie offensive coordinator Zac Robinson (yes, another Sean McVay product), the more I bought in.

“He’s the real deal,” said someone in the Rams organization who worked with Robinson before. “There will be a learning curve because he wasn’t calling plays before, but he’s going to be good there.”

Cousins can be a little bit particular about how he’s coached, but I hear he’s simpatico with his new coordinator and believes in Robinson’s abilities. A scout who pays particular attention to the NFC loved Atlanta picking up pass rusher Matthew Judon and safety Justin Simmons late in camp. “They just got a lot better on defense,” he said, “Judon is a natural disrupter, and Simmons will get his hands on the ball. They’ve got one of the best safety tandems in the league now. … I love both of those moves.”

Indianapolis Colts

If he can stay healthy, quarterback Anthony Richardson might take the league by storm. A high-ranking official from a team that faced Richardson in his four-game sample last season is particularly bullish on the Colts. “That kid is a b---- to play against,” the executive said. “He gave us everything we could handle, man. It’s like Mike Vick’s skill set inside of Cam Newton’s body but as a better pocket passer. He’s like in the 99th percentile across the board athletically. The defense is not that good, but they’ll run the ball on you. And it came down to Week 18 last year with [quarterback Gardner Minshew II], and they almost got in.”

The AFC scout said: “Richardson will be the difference. Yeah, I like the Colts, and I’m a Richardson guy. They don’t have to run him as much as they did last year, but I know that’s their scheme. He can beat you inside the pocket. If they’re smart, they won’t run him much outside the red zone. They need to keep him healthy.”

Seattle Seahawks

People are raving about new coach Mike Macdonald and his ability to create a legit defense immediately. The Seahawks also have a deep quarterbacks room.

“Mike Macdonald is a bad [motherf-----],” said one offensive-minded coach who faced Macdonald’s defense in Baltimore. “That’s probably the best defensive mind in football right now.” The NFC scout, who had to do advance work before his team faced Macdonald and the Ravens last year, said: “Macdonald runs the most multiple defense in the NFL. It’s the total opposite of everything they did under [former Seahawks coach] Pete Carroll. He will scheme up a pass rush, and he has some nice pieces in the secondary. Before, you knew they were going to sit back in cover-three, and everyone kind of knew what routes to run against them. … Seattle is going to be a lot better than people think.”

One agent who has had many players on Seattle’s rosters in recent years said he detected a major change in his clients this summer, after things had gotten stale under Carroll. “My guys can’t stop gushing about the head coach,” he said. “Pete’s great, but 12 years is a long time. I think they had kind of stopped listening.”

Chicago Bears

Getting Caleb Williams with the first overall pick puts this franchise in new terrain at quarterback, and he has a legit cast of skill players around him. The defense improved significantly throughout the 2023 season.

One college evaluator said: “Yeah, I’m buying the Bears, and I’m buying Caleb. He definitely has the ‘It’ factor, and he can process presnap, and I think he can succeed as a rookie where a lot of guys fail. A lot of young quarterbacks, once they get to that fifth step and there isn’t anything there, that’s where they fall apart. But Caleb can win off-script and has three really good receivers who all complement each other well. I know they gave up a lot for Keenan Allen, but, man, he can still separate and he’s always open. And the tight end [Cole Kmet] is good, too.” A GM said of the Bears, “That was a playoff defense the last two months of the season.”

Los Angeles Chargers

Quarterback Justin Herbert’s return to practice arrived at the perfect time. This last spot came down to the Chargers or New York Jets for several of the individuals I spoke to, with a massive chasm in quality of the coach giving Los Angeles the nod. The NFC scout said: “Jim Harbaugh will turn them around right away. Look at what he did in San Francisco in 2011. He knows how to manage a game and understands special situations and how to manage a locker room. It’s been a long time since they had a coach like this there. They will try to beat you up, and they’ll run the hell out of the football. They’ll be ready to play.”

From what I gather, the Chargers’ long-suffering defense is making considerable strides. “Their defense looks way better than their offense,” said the scout, who has had a chance to watch the Chargers fairly closely this summer. “… But look at their schedule; they might start 3-0. And the numbers tell you that will usually get you in.”

The Chargers start with the Las Vegas Raiders, Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers.