NFL team rankings: 1-32, Super Bowl to dregs

MIAMI — The NFL’s 105th season kicks off Sept. 5 as King Sport again reminds all others who’s boss. That means it’s time for my annual Miami Herald NFL Team Rankings — the outlook for 2024 from the No. 1 squad overall to the bottom-feeding 32nd.

This ain’t science or math, folks. Like political polling, the margin for error is always there. Certainties in life are death, taxes, tomorrow’s sunrise and me being embarrassingly wrong on my estimation of at least a few teams.

The previous two years I correctly predicted 19 of 28 playoff teams, or 68%. Not bad. Last year that included the Chiefs and 49ers, the eventual Super Bowl matchup, the Dolphins reaching the postseason again, and the Lions’ first playoff season in seven years.

Then again I also ranked the Texans 31st last year; they made the playoffs. Also had the Bengals ranked No. 3 overall and they missed the postseason (although Joe Burrow’s unforeseeable injury slaps an asterisk on that one).

I separate the 32 teams into four categories, tiers to tears, best to worst. OK, enough preamble. Here are my 2024 NFL Team Rankings, with ‘23 record, regular season and playoffs where applicable, in parentheses:

Super Bowl favorites

• 1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4, 1-1) — Crows’ defense last year was first in NFL history to lead league in fewest points allowed, most sacks and most takeaways in same season. Offense is led by two-time MVP Lamar Jackson, and new RB Derrick Henry will show the world he’s got plenty left at age 30. It’s the Year of the Raven.

• 2. San Francisco 49ers (12-5, 2-1) — Kyle Shanahan’s offensive system makes a fantasy darling of RB Christian McCaffrey and an unlikely star of Brock Purdy. Add a top-five defense for the most complete, balanced, airtight roster in NFL. But SF, as of this writing, still needed to settle WR Brandon Aiyuk and LT Trent Williams’ contract disputes.

• 3. Kansas City Chiefs Chiefs (11-6, 4-0) — K.C. aims for a third straight Super Bowl title, but there’s a reason only two NFL teams have won three championships in a row (both Green Bay) in pre-SB 1965-67 and 1929-31. Chiefs’ D is solid and Patrick Mahomes to Travis Kelce is still awesome, but stooping to sign Juju Smith-Schuster verifies rest of offense underwhelms.

• 4. Detroit Lions (12-5, 2-1) — Lions were NFL’s “it” team in ‘23, with club’s first playoff win since 1991. And they led Niners by 17 in NFC title game before faltering. Can they now bag franchise’s first championship since 1957? Tall climb, but NFL’s best O-line and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown have given new career life to Jared Goff.

• 5. Houston Texans (10-7, 1-1) — Meet the new “it” team. QB C.J. Stroud instantly made Houston matter as a rookie last year and he has a new toy now in WR Stefon Diggs. Also, the league’s easiest division (AFC South) gives Texans a soft path to playoffs. But neither Stroud nor Houston are a surprise now, and automatic improvement is no given.

• 6. Buffalo Bills (11-6, 1-1) — Sean McDermott has new coordinators, not usual for a team with four straight division titles. The pressure is mounting. Is the championship window closing on the Josh Allen era? He and the Bills must prove it is not. The top of the AFC East is vulnerable, but neither the Dolphins nor Jets have proved able to take it.

• 7. Dallas Cowboys (12-5, 0-1) — Call this Mike McCarthy’s last chance as aging Jerry Jones frets the 29-year gap since Dallas’ last Super Bowl appearance. Getting WR CeeDee Lamb signed was huge, Dak Prescott is still really good and top-five defense give the ‘Boys a fighting chance.

• 8. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6, 0-1) — A 1-6 swoon ended last season and both coordinators got fired, putting Nick Sirianni on the hot seat (OK, increasingly warm) entering ‘24. Jalen Hurts behind a B+ offensive line must prove as valuable to his team as he is to his fantasy owners.

Playoff contenders

• 9. Cleveland Browns (11-6, 0-1) — Browns won 11 games despite massive injuries last year, and now face the NFL’s toughest schedule mathematically — and without RB Nick Chubb the first four games. But a really talented defense buoys this team. They’ll be playoff good if QB Deshaun Watson is anywhere close to the player they stupidly paid $230 million to get.

• 10. Green Bay Packers (9-8, 1-1) — Did they pay QB Jordan Love too much too soon? Are hopes in Green Bay too high off a 9-8 year and the postseason magic of running up 48 points to beat Dallas then nearly upsetting San Fran? Impressive. But will it carry over enough to challenge Detroit in the division. Is the defense good enough?

• 11. Miami Dolphins (11-6, 0-1) — I had Miami ranked No. 4 overall last year and at 11-4 things were looking good. Then, the usual tailspin and disappointment. Until the team proves it can finish strong, win the AFC East, earn a home playoff game and end an NFL-worst 23-year playoff-victory drought, it’s just wishful to imagine this a Super Bowl contender and therefore I have demoted the Fins from that tier. Team speed, Tua Tagovailoa, great receivers led by Tyreek Hill, and a top running backs room are pluses. But the O-line is suspect, and the defense needs to really improve under new coordinator Anthony Weaver. I like Fins as a playoff team with a shot to vie for club’s first division crown since 2008. But Super Bowl? Prove you can win a playoff game, then we’ll talk.

• 12. Los Angeles Rams (10-7, 0-1) — Not sure about LAR’s defense as the post-Aaron Donald era begins, but this offense should be top-five material with Matthew Stafford leading, as long as Puka Nacua doesn’t sophomore slump off a sensational rookie year. RB Kyren Williams needs to reprise his breakout season as well.

• 13. New York Jets (7-10) — Robert Saleh is 18-33 in three seasons with zero playoffs. Aaron Rodgers’ lost 2023 gives him an asterisk but Saleh likely needs to get to and make a run in the playoffs to save his job. I have him sneaking in here with the seventh and last AFC spot. Assuming Rodgers’ good health and with an elite-seeming defense, he should get there.

• 14. Atlanta Falcons (7-10) — Surprise! My seventh and last NFC playoff spot goes to a team I haven’t seen slotted this high in any other rankings. This defense is an eternal question mark, but Atlanta enjoys the NFL’s easiest schedule, mathematically, and I believe the addition of veteran QB Kirk Cousins will be great for him and show big dividends.

• 15. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8) — Star WR Ja’Marr Chase still was unsigned as of this writing, a headache for the ‘Gals as well as fantasy teams that invested a first-round pick on him (like me). Having Cincy just miss the playoffs at this slot may be harsh, though, with Chase returning before much longer and a healthy Joe Burrow may be enough.

• 16. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7, 0-1) — Pitt’s defense looks solid again, but a playoff repeat looks tough. The offense is a bit unsettled with a retooling, young O-line and Russell Wilson trying to hold off Justin Fields for the starting QB job. Fantasy buzz suggests a big comeback year for RB Najee Harris, but will he deliver?

• 17. Chicago Bears (7-10) — Rookie QB Caleb Williams, the draft’s overall No. 1 pick, has looked the part, and fans count on him bringing instant magic and hope to Chitown as C.J. Stroud has done for Houston. It’s a big ask, but an improved defense should help. Coach Matt Eberflus’ job may depend on it.

• 18. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) — Miami’s season-opening opponent sank sharply last season after an 8-3 start, and will need better health and offensive performance to make a run at nine wins again. Jax lavished Trevor Lawrence with a mega-contract extension (as Fins did with Tua), now the onus is on each to be the difference.

Also-rans

• 19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8, 1-1) — This is disrespect, granted, for a team with four straight playoff seasons (due in part to a soft division). But I’m not impressed with Bucs on either side of the ball. (Sorry, Baker Mayfield.)

• 20. Indianapolis Colts (9-8) — If you believe in QB Anthony Richardson and in a comeback year for RB Jonathan Taylor, then Indy might surprise. But Colts’ defense does not look playoff caliber.

• 21. Los Angeles Chargers (5-12) — Alleged genius Jim Harbaugh takes over as he leaves behind a Michigan program he left smoldering with NCAA problems.. He has his work cut out. Justin Herbert, for all the hype, hasn’t made much difference.

• 22. Seattle Seahawks (9-8) — QB Geno Smith, about to turn 34, needs a big comeback year and help from his defense if he’s to score one last big contract and make a run at the postseason.

• 23. Minnesota Vikings (7-10) — Vikes’ entire season hopes sagged with rookie QB J..J. McCarthy’s season-ending injury making Sam Darnold the default starter. Not much to love here beyond star QR Justin Jefferson.

• 24. New Orleans Saints (9-8) — There are ample reasons why Dennis Allen tops most betting lists in the category, ‘First Coach Fired.’ N’Awlins’ defense seems worse, though a weak division lends a tendril of hope.

• 25. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9) — Gardner Minshew is the starting QB by default because Aidan O’Connell isn’t every good. This is not what star WR Davante Adams had in mind when he cheered his trade west from Green Bay.

• 26. Arizona Cardinals (4-13) — A healthy, revitalized Kyler Murray plus rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. equals sort of interesting? But it’s a steep climb in a tough division fronted by the 49ers.

The dregs

• 27. Washington Commanders (4-13) — Rookie QB Jayden Daniels is generating some hopeful buzz, but there isn’t much else on this roster to haunt an opposing coordinator’s sleep.

• 28. Tennessee Titans (6-11) — Major changes on offense, defense and the coaching staff surround a suspect starting QB in Will Levis. Long road back.

• 29. New York Giants (6-11) — Remember when New York loved Brian Daboll for a minute? Tough to picture better than third in NFC East barring an unexpected miracle year from injury-plagued, overpaid QB Daniel Jones.

• 30. Denver Broncos (8-9) — A defense in decline will require a bunch of scoring from rookie QB Bo Nix, who barely edged Jarrett Stidham for the job, is Denver’s 13th different starter post-Peyton Manning and isn’t surrounded by a ton of help.

• 31. New England Patriots (4-13) — Once-mighty Pats are in plain rebuilding mode as the Bill Belichick/Super Bowl era shrinks in the rear view. How long do we give Jacoby Brissett before Drake Maye gets the keys?

• 32. Carolina Panthers (2-15) — QB Bryce Young struggled as a rookie but Cats and new coach Dave Canales went all in on him in offseason, with infusions at WR and O-line. That means heat on Young to lead a lead a turnaround that may take time.