Ranked choice voting repeal now trailing by 45 votes ahead of final Alaska ballot count and tabulation Wednesday

A ballot measure to repeal Alaska’s system of ranked choice voting and open primaries is trailing by a razor-thin margin after the state Division of Elections counted another 2,080 ballots Tuesday.

The repeal effort is behind 49.99% to 50.01%. Out of 315,633 ballots counted, the gap is now 45 votes.

Elections director Carol Beecher said a final count of roughly 5,800 ballots is planned for Wednesday before the ranked choice tabulation process takes place. She did not have details to share on Tuesday about what types of ballots still need to be counted and from where.

Beecher said that 2,080 early and absentee ballots were counted Tuesday. Around 1,300 came from the Kenai Peninsula, Kodiak and Southeast Alaska. Roughly 800 came from the Mat-Su.

From election night results, the ranked choice voting repeal was ahead by almost two percentage points, amounting to roughly 4,300 votes. But the lead switched Monday after tens of thousands of absentee, early and questioned votes were counted.

After Monday’s count, the repeal effort was trailing by 192 votes. Tuesday’s ballot count saw that deficit shrink to just 45 votes.

[Two weeks after Election Day, Alaska is still counting ballots. This isn’t new.]

The ballot initiative that implemented ranked choice voting and open primaries followed a similar trajectory four years ago. The measure trailed by 13 points after Election Day, but caught up and narrowly won when tens of thousands of absentee ballots were counted.

Phil Izon, who led the signature-gathering effort for the repeal campaign, said he is already planning to file another initiative to repeal ranked choice voting in the 2026 election.

He pointed to the vast gulf in fundraising totals.

Supporters of ranked choice voting and open primaries raised over $14 million to retain the election system. Opponents raised $150,000.

After Tuesday’s count, Republican Nick Begich III was leading 49% to 46% against Democratic U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola for Alaska’s sole U.S. House seat. Begich widened his lead and was ahead of Peltola by over 7,500 votes. He declared victory over the weekend.

No legislative results substantially shifted from Tuesday’s count.

Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom said in a prepared statement Tuesday that the final ballot count and the ranked choice voting tabulation will take place on Wednesday. Unofficial results will be published around 5 p.m., she said.

The Division of Elections will count all overseas and military voters’ absentee ballots on Wednesday, Beecher said Monday. Then, election officials will determine which races need to be decided through the ranked choice voting tabulation process.

If no candidate gets more than 50%, the last-place candidate is eliminated and their votes are redistributed to the other candidates based on their supporters’ second-choice votes. That process is repeated until one candidate has a clear majority.

Gavel Alaska — operated by KTOO 360TV in Juneau — is planning to broadcast the ranked choice tabulation process live online, with a planned start around 5 p.m. Wednesday.

Election results are unofficial until they are certified. The state’s target date to certify the election is Nov. 30.

After results are certified, candidates and campaigns can request recounts. The state will pay for a recount in races where the margin is less than 0.5%.