Peltola leads Alaska’s primary results amid low turnout

With nearly 97,000 votes counted the day after primary voting had ended, Democratic U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola had more votes than her 11 challengers combined.

Peltola’s challengers included two high-profile Republicans — businessman Nick Begich III and Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom. Both had crafted campaigned targeting Peltola’s record in Congress, in an effort to return Alaska’s lone congressional seat to Republican hands.

“I thought Peltola showed surprising strength,” said Jim Lottsfeldt, a political consultant advising a pro-Peltola political action committee. He said there weren’t many reasons for centrist or left-leaning voters to head to the polls, making Peltola’s showing all the more noteworthy.

While additional results were expected, Peltola was easily ahead with more than 50% of the vote in the 12-way race. Begich was second, with 27%, and Dahlstrom was in third with 20%.

As both Begich and Dahlstrom sought to crown themselves as the Republican most likely to defeat Peltola, their matchup was expected to be the most significant driver of turnout in the primary election. But turnout appeared to be historically low, coming in at 16% with additional results expected from absentee ballots and seven rural precincts that had yet to report their results as of Wednesday evening.

Matt Shuckerow, a Republican political consultant, said the results are not promising for the candidates seeking to replace Peltola. But low turnout in the primary could make it difficult to make meaningful predictions of results in the general election, when hundreds of thousands of additional Alaska voters are likely to head to the polls.

“For folks who are really looking to make any sort of extrapolations from the primary, it is a little bit tough, because with such low voter turnout, it’s not even near a representative sample of what the electorate looks like,” said Shuckerow.

Final turnout in this year’s primary, which won’t be known until all absentee ballots are counted later this month, could be lower than in 2016, when around 17% of Alaska voters participated in the primary election.

It’s been 24 years since an Alaska primary election ballot did not feature a U.S. Senate race, a governor’s race or a ballot initiative. Burke Croft, deputy data director at progressive campaign firm Ship Creek Group, said that could have helped depress turnout.

“It’s like a historically boring election and nothing to do with who was running,” said John-Henry Heckendorn, managing partner at Ship Creek Group.

From available data, Croft said that a higher proportion of Democrats and nonpartisans voted early or by mail in the primary than in prior elections. His assumption is that more Democrats participated in the primary overall than was expected.

Conventional wisdom in Alaska political circles is that more Republicans vote in primaries than Democrats, and that progressives turn out for general elections. Croft said it would take a couple of weeks to analyze the data to confirm if that trend continued this year. A presidential election also typically drives out more turnout than a midterm. Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are set to be on the general election ballot, which could alter turnout, Heckendorn said.

”We’re not taking anything for granted or banking anything because we think we’re going to be dealing with a very different electorate in November,” he said.

The top four vote-getters in the primary advance to Alaska’s general election. Rounding out the top four in the congressional race is Matthew Salisbury, a Republican who said he voted for Peltola in 2022 but was disappointed by her tenure so far. Salisbury, who had not reported any significant fundraising, said he would run on a platform focused on three issues: opposition to bottom-trawling, opposition to corporate ownership of housing, and support for Social Security Funding.

Under Alaska’s voting system, the winner is determined by ranked-choice tabulation, otherwise known as instant runoff, if the top vote-getter in the general election receives less than 50% of the vote.

Before results were out, Begich — who has the support of several local Republican groups — promised he would drop out of the race if he was not the top finishing Republican. The goal of the promise was to increase the likelihood of a Republican winning without the need for a ranked-choice tabulation. With Begich ahead, neither Begich nor Dahlstrom — who’s been endorsed by former President Donald Trump — have indicated they will drop out of the race.

With both Republicans set to remain on the ballot, Republicans’ success could be determined in part by their willingness to adapt to Alaska’s ranked-choice system. In 2022, Republicans’ reticence to rank more than one candidate played a part in elevating Peltola’s candidacy. This year, Republicans have continued to question the value of Alaska’s new voting system, but have increasingly spoken about harnessing the system to Republicans’ advantage.

“If Alaskans can figure out how to write in a U.S. senator’s name in a historic write-in campaign, then they can figure out how to rank the red,” Shuckerow said.

But Peltola’s strong showing indicates that the internal jockeying among the GOP candidates may prove irrelevant. Begich and Dahlstrom combined received fewer votes than Peltola did, and political consultants said that turnout in November could be even more favorable for Democrats.

“When we get to November, there’s this great motivator,” Lottsfeldt said, referring to the presidential election. “People on the left are so fearful of another Trump presidency that he is their motivation to show up to stop him.”

Come November, Peltola could win the congressional race outright — skirting a ranked-choice tabulation against Begich and Dahlstrom.

Alongside the presidential election, Alaska’s November ballot is set to feature two initiatives: a question on whether to raise the minimum wage; and a question on whether to keep Alaska’s ranked-choice voting and open primary system, which was itself adopted by ballot initiative in 2020 and first used in 2022.

Lottsfeldt said those questions could increase turnout among voters who earn the minimum wage; and voters who feel strongly about Alaska’s voting system. Those dynamics could affect down-ballot races, as well.

“Elections are decided by those that show up, and so the key to success is to get the right people to show up,” he said.

‘Path to success’

Among the 50 legislative races that appeared on the primary ballot, only two had more than four candidates, meaning that the vast majority of names that appeared on Tuesday’s ballot will appear again in November. But in some races, candidates may take Tuesday’s results as their cue to bow out.

In several legislative races that feature more than one GOP candidate, some Republican politicos have said that the candidates who are not ahead should drop out of their respective races. Candidates have until Sept. 2 to drop out of the November race before the general election ballots are finalized.

One such race is House District 9 covering parts of South Anchorage and Girdwood, where the retirement of Republican Rep. Laddie Shaw has prompted three GOP contenders to enter the race — Lee Ellis, Lucy Bauer and Brandy Pennington. The three also face nonpartisan candidate Ky Holland, who won just over 40% of votes counted so far. Leading among the Republicans was Bauer, with 21.7%, followed by Ellis with 19.3% and Pennington with 18.6%.

The low turnout “throws a wrench into evaluating what your path forward looks like,” Ellis said Wednesday. He said his plan is to evaluate historical voting data to figure out whether the different electorate in November could favor his candidacy in November.

“If we were to withdraw, we withdraw because we don’t see a reasonable path to success,” he said.

Ellis said the voters in the primary could have skewed more partisan, meaning that the success of one Republican candidate in the primary does not indicate that that same Republican would succeed in a general election that draws more moderate voters.

“The issue with the primary is that you can have someone who is very popular with the very, very right folks. And those folks get out and vote in the primaries. And then when we get to the general election, we’re going to have a much bigger cross-section of voters, and folks that maybe are a little are more moderate,” said Ellis.

On the line with the outcome of the legislative races is the composition of majorities in the House and Senate next year. The House is currently governed by a narrow mostly Republican majority, but the current 16-member minority coalition is looking to grow its ranks and regain control of the chamber in November. Supporters of that coalition saw glimmers of hope in primary results so far.

In House District 40, current independent Rep. Thomas Baker — who was appointed to the seat by Gov. Mike Dunleavy — appears poised to lose to a Democrat. With 14 out of 20 precincts reporting results so far, Baker had less than 27% of the vote, while two Democratic challengers — Saima Chase and Robyn Burke — had nearly 35% and close to 39% respectively.

In House District 10, Republican incumbent Rep. Craig Johnson was being easily beaten by a more moderate challenger, Republican former lawmaker Chuck Kopp. Kopp had nearly 61% of the vote compared to Johnson’s 39%.

But Republicans had reasons for optimism, as well. In House District 1, currently held by independent Rep. Dan Ortiz of Ketchikan, Republican Jeremy Bynum had nearly 50% of the vote. Two nonpartisan candidates — Grant EchoHawk and Agnes Moran — trailed far behind with 27% and 23% respectively.

“The House is going to be closely divided once again,” said Rep. Bryce Edgmon, a Dillingham independent and one of the longest-serving members of the House. But with the low turnout, Edgmon said “it’s too early to tell” the eventual composition of the majority.

“I’ve seen the course of the game change dramatically in the fourth quarter,” said Edgmon.

In an East Anchorage district that could be pivotal for the ultimate majority negotiations, Republican incumbent Rep. Stanley Wright was trailing behind Democratic challenger Ted Eischeid by fewer than 20 votes. Of the ballots counted by Wednesday, turnout in the district was less than 8%.

“It’s a qualifying heat. Both candidates qualified for the final. I may have gotten across first to the finish line in the heat, but now we have another race to do,” said Eischeid, who in 2022 lost to Wright by 72 votes.

Longtime Anchorage Democratic Sen. Bill Wielechowski said that Democrats would likely improve on their results in the general election, increasing the odds that bipartisan coalitions would form in both the House and Senate. Wielechowski, who was attending the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, predicted that enthusiasm for Vice President Harris would also boost Democratic turnout in Alaska come November.

“The energy is through the roof here. I have never experienced anything like this in my life,” he said.

Two left-leaning Senate candidates from Fairbanks who trailed their Republican opponents — Democratic Sen. Scott Kawasaki and Savannah Fletcher — expressed optimism that they could improve their showing in November. Kawasaki was trailing Republican challenger Leslie Hajdukovich by 70 votes. Fletcher had 45 votes fewer than Tok Republican Rep. Mike Cronk. Fletcher and Cronk are among four candidates running for an open Senate seat vacated by Republican Sen. Click Bishop.

Both Kawasaki and Hajdukovich were cautiously optimistic about their chances of winning a Senate seat that historically has leaned Republican. Echoing candidates across the board, they suggested the primary was one test, but the election was just getting started.

”We’re not going to take anything for granted, but we’re fairly confident with the results,” Kawasaki said.

”I don’t think it’s a super great indicator, but to come out on top with an 18 year incumbent, I think is a great marker,” Hajdukovich said.