Most of Alaska’s candidates are already thinking about November. Here’s why the primary election still matters.

With days remaining until Alaska’s primary election concludes on Tuesday, candidates and voters are still figuring out the significance of a primary that in most races will not eliminate a single candidate.

It has been four years since Alaskans narrowly adopted a new voting system. Until 2020, Alaska for years handled primaries the way most states do — by facilitating partisan elections. For a generation, only registered Republicans and undeclared voters could vote for Republican candidates in the primary. A second primary ballot for Democrats and minor parties was open to all registered voters.

But under Alaska’s new voting system, first used in 2022, all candidates appear on a single primary ballot, regardless of party affiliation, and all voters pick a favorite from the same list of candidates. The top four vote-getters advance to the ranked choice general election. Alaskans are set to vote in November on an initiative that asks whether to keep or repeal the new election system.

In races that draw a multitude of candidates, like Alaska’s lone U.S. House seat, the open primary is helpful in crystallizing a list of four options to choose from in November. But in legislative races, it is rare to see more than four candidates throw their hat into the ring. This year, only two out of 50 legislative races have more than four candidates.

“The existence of the top four primary has really changed the way that campaigns are having to look at this,” said Matt Shuckerow, a political consultant working on Republican Leslie Hajdukovich’s campaign for a Fairbanks state Senate seat.

Even in low-stakes primary races, candidates have to spend time and money ahead of the primary, he said. But the stakes are hard to define for candidates and voters alike.

“Obviously, you’re not wanting to have a poor showing, so you’re putting forward some resources,” said Shuckerow.

Jim Lottsfeldt, a political consultant leading a group supporting U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola’s reelection, said the primary results could be helpful for candidates with fewer than four candidates — if they do well.

“It’s definitely going to be useful for the people who end up on top, or look competitive when they might not actually be competitive,” said Lottsfeldt. “It’ll be results that will either help or hurt your fundraising based on how people interpret it.”

Most candidates say their sights are already set on November, but Tuesday’s primary election will give them a better sense of the work that lies ahead.

“It is important for momentum,” said former state Sen. Mia Costello, an Anchorage Republican running for an open West Anchorage district that is set to be one of the most competitive — and expensive — races of the year. “It is important to know where you stand and how much work needs to be done to get that success in November.”

Democrat Denny Wells, who is running against Costello after losing by nine votes in his first run for office in 2022, said he is already looking ahead past the primary.

“I would like to do well, hope a lot of people engage and turn out, but what we’re really focused on is November,” said Wells.

In Fairbanks, incumbent Democratic Sen. Scott Kawasaki and Hajdukovich, a Republican, are vying for a Senate district that leans Republican. Their closely watched race could be critical for whether a bipartisan majority maintains control in the Alaska Senate, or if Republicans can form a majority in their own right.

Kawasaki had raised $98,000 by Aug. 13 and had spent just over $8,000, with a focus on November. He said the primary “means less because it’s just us two, and we’ll both be continuing on to the general election.”

One week out, Hajdukovich was the top fundraiser and biggest spender so far among legislative candidates. She had raised over $170,000 and spent $63,000 — more than seven times the amount her opponent had reported spending. She said the campaign had been “watching our pennies,” but it was important to spend now to boost her name recognition.

”We’ve put a lot of energy and expenditure into getting my name out there. I mean, I’m running against an 18-year incumbent,” she said.

According to the Alaska Division of Elections, early voter turnout ahead of the primary election has been down compared to recent cycles.

“It’s very quiet right now,” said House Speaker Cathy Tilton, a Wasilla Republican running unopposed. “We have a primary on Tuesday and a lot of people don’t even know that there’s a primary.”

Alaska political consultants say primary voters are typically more partisan than those at a general election, meaning Tuesday’s results may not be an indicator of electoral success in November.

John-Henry Heckendorn, a political consultant who owns Ship Creek Group, which advises left-leaning candidates, said some candidates who underperformed in the 2022 primary ended up winning in the general election, proving that primary results can have limited utility for candidates seeking to take the temperature of the electorate.

“I think campaigns are really feeling the push to use the primary to position themselves, but I think folks who are watching the races need to be careful of over-indexing on the primary,” said Heckendorn.

Competitive primary races for the Alaska Legislature were uncommon even before the 2020 election reform was adopted, said Heckendorn, who has advised around 100 campaigns in Alaska.

“I think I can count on one hand the number of competitive primaries that I’ve worked on,” he said.

But partisan primaries were once critical in legislative districts that had a strong partisan lean. Rep. Zack Fields won a hotly contested primary in 2018 for a solidly Democratic downtown Anchorage seat, which all but guaranteed Fields’ victory. In 2020, more than $160,000 was spent on a Republican primary race between Wasilla incumbent Rep. David Eastman and then-challenger Jesse Sumner, which dwarfs any primary election spending for legislative races this cycle.

Another quirk of Alaska’s open primary system is that it allows any individual to run as a member of a political party, even if they do not have that party’s backing, or even adhere to its values.

Costello and Wells in November will also face a perennial candidate named Dustin Darden, who registered as a Democrat the same day he registered as a candidate. Darden has adopted positions that are antithetical to those of the Alaska Democratic Party, including his support for limiting abortion access; limiting protections for LGBTQ+ Alaskans; and opposition to joining bipartisan coalitions.

Despite the possibility that unsuspecting voters seeking to support a Democrat could vote for Darden, Wells said he likes Alaska’s open primary system.

“It has never made sense to me that we would spend taxpayer dollars to run a primary on behalf of private parties,” said Wells. “While it’s not necessarily beneficial in my specific race, I really appreciate the fact that people have more choices on the ballot.”

But not everyone is a fan. In several races with more than one Republican candidate, some Republican operatives and candidates have been trying to exert pressure to ensure that all but the top-performing GOP candidate drop out of their respective races following the primary.

“Obviously we want to have the best opportunity for our candidates to be successful. So I think it’s something that you have to look at,” Tilton said.

In Eagle River, a five-way race sees Republican Sen. Kelly Merrick running against former GOP state Reps. Ken McCarty and Sharon Jackson, Democrat Lee Hammermeister and Republican newcomer Jared Goecker. One of them is set to be eliminated in the primary.

Merrick won by 16 points in 2022 against McCarty, a more conservative Republican. A member of the bipartisan Senate majority, Merrick is campaigning on crime and energy bills she helped pass. She suggested that success in the primary would indicate voters’ support for bipartisanship.

Goecker, who decided to run after his brother was killed in a shooting last year, said that Tuesday’s primary was “make-or-break” for him. He pledged to drop out if he is not the top-placed “conservative” Republican in the race. He did not count Merrick in his tally of conservatives. Goecker had raised $74,000 by Wednesday and had spent most of it. He expected donations would follow from a strong showing on Tuesday.

“A lot of people are watching to see the primary to make sure that this is a viable campaign,” he said.

McCarty said he would not drop out if he finishes in third or fourth place in the primary election. Jackson said she’s still making up her mind.

“Alaskans are still sort of trying to react and respond to these changes that we’ve only experienced just a couple times before,” said Shuckerow.

‘Boots on the ground’

No primary race will be more pivotal than the U.S. House race, in which Peltola, the incumbent, is facing 11 challengers, including two high-profile Republicans.

Nick Begich, a businessman who twice lost to Peltola in 2022, is vowing that unless he is the top-performing Republican in Tuesday’s primary, he will bow out of the election. But Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, who has endorsements from former President Donald Trump and other national GOP figures, has not made a similar promise.

The race between Begich and Dahlstrom could drive more voters to the polls on Tuesday in what is otherwise expected to be a low-turnout race.

“There’s a lot of folks who are curious to see who will finish in which order,” said Shuckerow. “I think that’s going to certainly drive Republicans to the ballot box and folks that are maybe moderate, centrist voters who are interested in the outcome of that race.”

On paper, Begich and Dahlstrom have positioned themselves similarly, aligning themselves with Trump and the right wing of their party. Both say they will support a national ban on abortions after 12 weeks of gestation; both say they will support limits on the rights of transgender children.

But their candidacies have revealed a fissure among Alaska Republicans, and internal frustration over the control that the Alaska GOP lost over the outcome of primary elections.

Begich, who came in third in 2022 behind Peltola and former Gov. Sarah Palin, has become the darling of many local Republican groups, with endorsements from a growing number of Republican district committees and Republican women’s groups. Meanwhile, Dahlstrom has the backing of national groups, including the National Republican Congressional Committee, which has vowed to spend money on her behalf.

Tilton suggested that the contrast between local support for Begich and national support for Dahlstrom reveals the disconnect between Alaskans and figures based in Washington, D.C. Most of Dahlstrom’s campaign staff resides out of state.

“If you’re not in the state, walking boots on the ground, it’s hard to understand the dynamics of that state,” said Tilton.

In the places with the highest concentration of registered Republicans in Alaska — including the Kenai Peninsula, Mat-Su and Fairbanks — Tilton said she believes Begich has more grassroots support than Dahlstrom does. She has not made an endorsement in the race, but the Republican committee for her district has endorsed Begich.

According to a report from Punchbowl News, Dahlstrom spent several days in the week leading up to the primary election in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, rubbing shoulders with House Speaker Mike Johnson, other leaders of the Republican conference and other GOP candidates tapped by Johnson.

Dahlstrom has pitched herself as the only GOP candidate who can draw enough moderate voters to beat Peltola, despite the fact that her views are largely in line with Begich’s positions on key national issues. Begich has so far focused his campaign in GOP strongholds, doing little to pitch himself to moderate voters.

The different primary system has changed the timeline, particularly for GOP candidates. Under Alaska’s closed primary system, Republican candidates often gathered for high-profile debates and forums ahead of the primary. No such events have taken place this year.

The closest Republicans got was with a closed-door event featuring Begich and Dahlstrom in Ketchikan earlier this month. Shortly after the event, the Ketchikan district Republicans endorsed Begich.

“I think Nick Begich has created this idea some have called a ‘false primary,’” said Shuckerow. “He kind of threw this Hail Mary because he finished third the last three times he’s run.”

If the gambit succeeds and he finishes ahead of Dahlstrom, Begich could exert pressure on Dahlstrom to leave the race despite her national credentials and stated unwillingness to leave the race.

While the primary could be pivotal for the GOP candidates, it is less so for Peltola, the incumbent. That means that supporters for Peltola could be less motivated to turn out and vote, further skewing the results.

“It’s just not going to be a great reflection of what’s going to go down in November,” said Lottsfeldt.

Still, Peltola is foregoing a trip to the Democratic National Convention, which coincides with the primary, planning instead to make campaign stops in Fairbanks, Wasilla, Anchorage and Kenai ahead of the primary.