Jake Berkowitz: Who to watch this year at the top of the Iditarod pack

The best of the best in the mushing world takes to the streets of Anchorage on Saturday morning for a day filled with fanfare. But the real show — and the one that every racer has been focused on since the finish in Nome last year — will begin in the very snow-filled town of Willow on Sunday afternoon.

It seems unlikely Mitch Seavey’s record of 8 days, 3 hours, 40 minutes will be broken. The race is on the longer, more difficult southern route; there’s been heavy snowfall across Alaska and brutal storms along the coast; the size of teams has been reduced from a maximum of 16 dogs to a maximum of 14; and the Iditarod’s ever-evolving rules now only allow resting dogs to be carried in front of a musher’s handlebars.

But if there was ever a field of mushers that could break Seavey’s record, this would be it. With nine out of last year’s top 10 finishers returning, we can only imagine we’ll be in for a real show.

The big question on everyone’s mind: “Who will be the next Iditarod champion?” Here are my predictions.

Three possible champions

JOAR LEIFSETH ULSOM

The reigning champion has six top-10 finishes in six Iditarod races, a run culminating in his first win last year. Leifseth Ulsom, who now has the confidence of a champion, a beautiful new Dodge truck, a slew of new sponsors and a dog team made up primarily of Iditarod winners, is poised for a repeat. He is more dangerous than ever now and the heavy snowfall and tough conditions early on the trail tend to favor him.

[Meet the mushers: Photos, stats and starting order for all 52 mushers in the 2019 Iditarod]

For his fans out there, don’t get nervous if Leifseth Ulsom tucks himself away in the middle of the front pack early on. We can expect him to make his first move around Takotna and then slowly build and prepare for his big move on the coast.

Every competitor’s eyes are fixed on Leifseth Ulsom, and there is a large target on his back.

MITCH SEAVEY

A three-time champion who hasn’t placed outside the top three since 2012, Seavey is poised to “bounce back” from his third-place finish last year. That’s a ridiculous statement to make, but having been first or second in 2015, 2016 and 2017, we can only imagine that placing third last year has been weighing on Seavey’s mind. Plus there’s his desire to get one more win and join son Dallas Seavey as a four-time Iditarod champion.

Seavey, who was once known as being one of the toughest competitors for a slow, hard slog of a race, seems to have changed his approach in recent years. He has gone more for speed and the strategy of carrying dogs in his sled, allowing them more rest and and putting fewer miles on them. Last year’s trail, and particularly the Yukon River, didn’t allow Seavey to showcase the same speed we saw in recent years.

The big question this year is if Seavey went back to the drawing board and created a new hybrid approach, or if is he sticking with the same strategy that earned him the 2017 victory and the race record.

NICOLAS PETIT

Petit had one of the most impressive years of racing last year, winning every mid-distance race he entered and then placing second in the Iditarod after losing the trail while crossing Norton Sound — a mistake that quite possibly robbed him of his first Iditarod win.

Petit’s 2019 season started off very similarly to his 2018 season, with a win at the Copper Basin 300. Then he took fourth in the Kusko 300 and third in the Tustumena 200, a season most anyone would be thrilled with, but my guess is this was not up to Petit’s standards.

So the question is if those results are an indication of how Petit will do in the Iditarod. On paper he hasn’t been as dominant as he was last year, but results in shorter races are not always an indicator of Iditarod success. Petit could have been trying out some new dogs, new leaders, new gear or any combination of things to prepare himself for the Iditarod.

Petit has been known for making big, bold and sometimes unprecedented moves. He is not bashful about leading the race, so look for him to make an early move to the front and stay there.

The rest of the top 10

Pete Kaiser (5th in 2018)

Ramey Smyth (8th in 2018)

Jessie Holmes (7th in 2018)

Richie Diehl (6th in 2018)

Wade Marrs (Scratched in 2018)

Matt Failor (13th in 2018)

Jessie Royer (16th in 2018)

Top 3 rookies

1. Ed Hopkins (multiple top-5 Yukon Quest finisher)

2. Martin Apayauq Reitan (2019 Yukon Quest rookie of the year)

3. Richie Beattie (2006 Yukon Quest rookie of the year)

Jake Berkowitz is a three-time Iditarod finisher with an eighth-place finish in 2013, when he was awarded the Leonhard Seppala Humanitarian Award. This is his fourth year of Iditarod commentary for the Anchorage Daily News and adn.com.