Does Alaska's strong king return mean the run is big — or early?

HOMER — King fishing around Cook Inlet this week is shaping up like a sales pitch: Act now! Limited-time offer! While supplies last!

And, of course — void where prohibited.

When and where harvest is permitted, action has been heating up, bolstered by promising numbers of fish hitting fresh water.

"We are cautiously optimistic," said Matt Miller, area sportfish biologist for Lower Cook Inlet with the Alaska Department of Fish and Game. "We're seeing some good runs so far with king salmon throughout Cook Inlet, and we're pleased to see that."

[Weekly Fish and Game fishing report]

The Anchor River north of Homer has seen more kings return so far this spring than at the same point in any of the last three years, with Fish and Game counting 1,614 fish as of June 1. The Anchor opened to fishing Saturdays, Sundays, Mondays and Wednesdays on May 21, and anglers have been scoring.

In-season counts aren't available for Deep Creek and the Ninilchik River, but anecdotal reports point to fish returns being good there too. Those streams are open Saturdays, Sundays and Mondays as of May 28.

And timing counts. Ben Mastre of Soldotna and his dad, Jeff, had their lines and spinners in Deep Creek at 12:01 a.m. May 28, and were packing up to leave 25 minutes later.

"I had four kings for the night in about a half-hour . . . Everybody caught fish that was down there," Mastre said.

His dad landed his first king in five minutes. Mastre said he's fished the last five Deep Creek openers, and this was the best he's fared.

"We did excellent. It was some of the better fishing I've had down there in quite a few years," Mastre said.

12- to 20-pounders

Mastre and his dad were a little upstream, with fellow anglers spaced 30 to 40 feet apart. There was plenty of action for everyone. In fact, before the anglers' first cast, it was clear they wouldn't be forgoing sleep for nothing.

"You could see fish rolling in there. You could tell there were a lot of them," Mastre said.

The fish averaged 12 to 15 pounds, Mastre said, and he saw a couple of 20-pounders taken from the water. His were females — bright, fresh and ready to bite.

"They were definitely fighting good. They were super hot," he said.

That sounds about right from the king fishing reports coming from lower-Peninsula streams, Miller said.

"Our area manager is out talking to people. It's sounding good. And we're hearing good things from the marine fishery still, so we're happy about that," Miller said. "Hopefully, that will continue."

Will Kenai River open?

Fish and Game is even considering opening the Kenai River to catch-and-release fishing, Miller said. Back in February, the department announced a closure of all fishing for early run Kenai kings through June 30.

The early forecast for this year's return was similar to the 2015 forecast, and it was not good — 5,265 fish. The low end of the department's optimal escapement goal is 5,300 fish.

But so far king numbers are looking better than expected. Fish and Game's cumulative king count in the Kenai was 1,834 as of May 30, crushing the returns of recent years for the same date — 702 kings in 2015, 217 in 2014 and zero in 2013.

"We've been having some conversations this week looking at the Kenai early run," Miller said. "Now we're looking at opening that up for a non-retention fishery. That would be the first step in lifting some of the restrictions we did preseason."

Deshka numbers encouraging

News is equally promising in the Susitna Valley.

The Deshka River opened to bait — which is typically far more effective than lures — after Memorial Day.

"Fishing has really picked up, especially now that bait is open. We had really good catch rates (Wednesday) up and down the river, especially in the mouth fishery, and I expect that it was really good fishing success (Thursday) morning, as well," said Sam Ivey, Matanuska-Susitna area sportfish manager with Fish and Game.

Weirs installed on the Deshka and the nearby Little Su are showing strong early king numbers. As of Wednesday, Fish and Game estimates 3,150 kings passing the weir on the Deshka, compared to 533 by the same date in 2015, 248 in 2014 and zero in 2013.

Half of the run seems to be males less than 4 years old, Ivey said.

"And those are usually really aggressive biters. And so that probably just adds to the fishing success," he said.

Fishing on the Deshka is open every day, with bait and multiple hooks allowed.

The Little Su is open to king fishing Fridays through Mondays. Fishing got off to a slow start there, but Ivey expects that to improve as water conditions clear. He heard that three dozen Little Su kings were caught over the weekend.

"Which is a little bit low, but it indicates there's fish out there. And, also, the water was high and muddy. And the visibility was real low, so that's reasonable, in my opinion," he said. "If the water clarity just clears up a little bit it should be pretty good at the Little Su."

For boaters, Lake Creek, about 60 miles up the Yentna River, is also looking good for harvest, Ivey said. And the Eklutna Tailrace terminal stocked fishery is shaping up to be an even surer bet.

Ivey and Miller agree that now's the time to reel in a sweet deal on early king fishing, especially because there's no telling how long supplies will last.

"At this point, you can't really say with any certainty whether it's early or whether it's big or whether it's both," Miller said. "We're obviously pleased to see the kings coming back in the numbers that they are, but it's really too early to say anything definitive about what that means."

Historically, the Deshka would have one percent of its run past the weir at this point.

"The weir counts and . . . our fish-wheel counts on the lower main stem of the Susitna kind of indicate that same entry pattern that we've seen the last two years that equated to an early run of kings," Ivey said.

In that case, the bite that heated up early could cool early too.

"The entire run (last year) was shifted a full seven days early, which means it peaked a week early, as well," Ivey said.

While it isn't unheard of to have such a promising start to the season, it's a welcome change from recent years.

"We're not in uncharted territory here, but it's been a while since we've seen happy anglers this early in the season," Ivey said. "Have fun out there, be safe and enjoy. This is a good time to get out."

Jenny Neyman is a freelance writer based on the Kenai Peninsula.