OPINION: Trump drew a line between Latinos and migrants. It worked.

President-elect Donald Trump may owe a good share of his victory to the group he has denigrated the most - Latino men.

The surge in Black voter support Trump bragged about never materialized, and he actually lost ground among some White voters. But in battleground state after battleground state, Latinos provided a critical edge.

According to a CNN exit poll, Latino men, for the first time, broke for Trump by 55% to 44% for Harris.

Why? It shouldn’t come as a complete shock. Latinos were motivated by the same concerns that drove other voters in the new Trump coalition: an economy that has eroded working-class buying power and a flood of immigrants who were feared as competitors for jobs.

Trump shrewdly played on those fears with his “Black jobs” riff, which he later expanded to include “Hispanic jobs.” His anti-immigrant rhetoric drew a bright line between Hispanics on the one hand and migrants on the other. “They’re going to be attacking - and they already are - Black population jobs, Hispanic population jobs, and they’re attacking union jobs too,” Trump said. “So, when you see the border, it’s not just the crime. Your jobs are being taken away, too.”

Never mind data that shows the claim is untrue.

The pitch drew Latinos into a universe where many longed to be, included in the mainstream, and allowed them to participate in otherizing the new enemy - recent immigrants.

Trump’s attacks also exploited tensions within the Latino population itself. Mexicans by far represent the largest and most well-established group of Latino Americans and occupy all rungs of society, from entrepreneurial billionaires on down. Puerto Ricans are American citizens by birth and some - though by no means all - resent being associated with those here illegally.

Trump gave permission for each group to look down on newer waves of immigrants that now arrive mostly from Central and South America and have proved as much a headache to Mexico as to the US.

Statistics show that Latinos tend to work lower-wage jobs at a disproportionate rate, so inflation hit them especially hard. Democrats’ insistence that the US economy was leading the world (which it is) was cold comfort as they struggled to buy both bread and milk and pay for gas and utilities. They were especially vulnerable to Trump’s siren song about the pre-pandemic economy with its lower prices and interest rates.

There were early warning signs for the Harris campaign that her support among Hispanics was eroding. A USA Today/Suffolk poll in October showed Trump was polling at 51% with younger Hispanic males in Arizona and even more, 57%, with older Hispanic men. Harris’s support was at 39% and 37%, respectively. Pennsylvania, the prize with its 19 electoral votes, is home to more than 1 million Hispanics, half of whom are eligible voters. Reading, where the GOP concentrated its efforts with splashy events and rallies, is nearly 69% Latino. Biden won it handily in 2020, but Trump increased his support among Latino voters by 28% in some precincts compared to 2016. In 2024, he returned with the persistence of a top salesman.

When Harris sensed trouble among Black male voters, she rushed out an “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men” in early October. She released a similar plan for Latinos, but not until two weeks before Election Day. Admittedly, her 107-day race left her little time, through no fault of her own. But her appeal came far too late in an age of early voting and with so little fanfare that most voters knew little about it.

And no matter how much she laid out about her economic plans, culturally, for some Latinos, the Democratic agenda has become too liberal. As the daughter of Mexican immigrants, I know the culture can be socially conservative, patriarchal and family-oriented. Abortion and transgender rights were always going to be a difficult sell for Mexicans steeped in Catholicism.

For Latino men, strongman leaders are also familiar and somewhat fascinating. They are often blunt and rough-edged yet charismatic - in a word, macho.

Ronald Reagan used to joke that Latinos were Republicans, “they just don’t know it yet.” Democrats have long sought to make Latinos part of their coalition - fighting for Dreamers, a path to citizenship, and better wages and working conditions.

But they may have lost a step in recognizing that Latinos are no more a monolith than Black voters or any other identity group. The Latino red shift could be a fluke or a permanent realignment. But expect the priorities of this multi-faceted community to come into a much higher profile as the two parties battle over them.

Patricia Lopez is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering politics and policy. This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

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