What the Alaska Legislature will accomplish this year — and what it should

The beginning of the legislative session is often a time for optimism: In January, anything seems possible. Rewrite the state’s alcohol laws? Sure. Split a state department in two — why not? Fix the ferry system? Plenty of time for that. Propose wholesale, permanent changes to the state’s revenue streams and budget? No time like the present.

In the end, however, it seems little of substance except the bare minimum of the budget gets addressed: Especially in election years, legislators are prone to keep from rocking the boat, leading to few bold ideas, the passage of a status quo fiscal plan for Alaska and a swift retreat home to campaign. This is even more true when state funds are high enough that they don’t force hard choices about budget cuts, spending priorities or new revenue.

So here we are in an election year, with oil prices high enough to buoy a status quo budget, particularly if the Legislature takes the tack Gov. Dunleavy adopted in his budget proposal, inserting one-time federal money from the infrastructure bill to augment operating budget needs. There’s little hope that the Legislature will do much more than kick the can down the road for one more year, avoiding the difficult and necessary planning of a long-term budget solution that will provide for Alaska’s future. Using this one-time federal money in the operating budget in order to fund excessive Permanent Fund dividends is yet another repetition of the 1980s bumper sticker prayer: “Dear God, give us just one more oil boom; we promise not to waste it.”

The oil boom of this year, so to speak, is the billions of dollars in federal infrastructure funds available to Alaska — and we’d better not waste it. Gov. Dunleavy’s proposed budget commits a cardinal sin of government accounting by using one-time federal funds to pay for operating expenses that will persist indefinitely, such as for the ferry system. Using that budget sleight-of-hand, the governor can say the budget balances and push for expanding the Permanent Fund dividend — but after this election year, we’ll be worse off, with those one-time funds absent and a smoking crater in the budget where they were before. Legislative leaders, such as Senate Finance Committee mainstays Sen. Bert Stedman, R-Sitka, and Sen. Click Bishop, R-Fairbanks, should, and likely will, take a longer view and make sure we’re not leaning on federal money to overspend and fulfill campaign promises — neither the governor’s nor anyone else’s.

If there’s any positive to such a drop-back-and-punt session, it will be that the Legislature won’t likely waste time posturing in multiple costly special sessions, as in previous years — with 59 of 60 seats up for election this year, incumbents will be keen to finish on time and get home to convince their constituents they deserve another round in Juneau. They may even move to pass the budget before the first of April, in order to avoid a repeat of the protracted fight over an effective date like we saw last year. If there is a special session called, it will likely be by Gov. Mike Dunleavy. The governor knows as well as anyone that legislators will want to get out of town, and he could use the threat of a special session to extract leverage for his proposed Permanent Fund plan or constitutional amendments.

But just because non-budget items aren’t likely to see passage doesn’t mean legislators will refrain from chest-thumping about them. In the wake of U.S. Supreme Court signals that the Roe v. Wade abortion precedent is in danger of being overturned, you can expect emboldened anti-abortion legislators to propose laws further restricting Alaskans’ access to abortion, possibly inspired by Texas’ recently passed “bounty” legislation.

Similarly, hard-right legislators are likely to beat the drum for a constitutional convention to rewrite Alaska’s founding document. This is the worst idea that will come forward during the session, a Pandora’s box that would shred the well-designed system that our state’s principled founders drew up more than six decades ago. Think about Alaska’s constitutional framers in the 1950s, then think about Alaska’s political leaders and party bosses now: Which group would you say had the best interests of Alaskans more at heart?

Although legislators may not be inclined to make hard choices and real budget progress this session, it’s up to Alaskans to convince them that doing so is in their best interest. And how might you do that? Flip the script: Let your representatives in Juneau know you’re paying attention, and your support for their reelection is contingent not on them avoiding any potentially unpopular decisions but on making concrete steps toward a long-term budget solution. That may mean difficult negotiations between caucuses and individual legislators. It may mean compromises that don’t make any constituency feel like they won. But it would be an actual accomplishment we should reward in November — one that moves Alaska toward a more stable future.