The news was good for the Alaska Permanent Fund this week as the corporation that manages the state's massive sovereign wealth account held its annual meeting. At the end of the last fiscal year, the fund had grown to a recordbreaking sum of $65.4 billion (as of July 31, it had grown even more, to an unaudited total of $66.2 billion). What's more, the price of the oil that fuels the fund's growth is continuing its long recovery, and this week moved above $80 per barrel for the first time since November 2014. If the price of oil stays high and production doesn't slide, Alaska next year could have something residents haven't seen in almost half a decade: A balanced budget.
But that doesn't mean the four men running for governor should breathe easy.
There's no question that high oil prices are good news for Alaska. Even when oil prices collapsed to less than $30 per barrel, revenue from oil was one of the chief contributors to the state's bottom line. With prices above $75 per barrel, that is even more the case, and new discoveries and developments on the North Slope indicate it's likely to remain so for years to come. Alaska's economic health is still closely tied to the price of its mineral resources.
It's understandably tempting for Alaskans — and especially gubernatorial candidates — to revert to the mentality they enjoyed prior to the oil price collapse of late 2014 and 2015. Before the slump and subsequent recession began, few were seriously discussing how to provide state services in the event that oil couldn't cover all the state's fiscal needs. The time since has been a wake-up call, in which Alaska had the savings — barely — to cover massive deficit spending while the price of oil crept back from the depths. Even if oil stays pricey enough to keep the state in the black during the coming year, we shouldn't pretend it can't happen again — and we should take measures to be ready for it when it does.
This doesn't mean drastically altering the way our state works or the essential services government provides, such as transportation, public safety and education. But it does mean having a plan for what we do if oil dips back to $50 per barrel. Or $40 per barrel. Or $30 per barrel. Every candidate for governor should have such a plan, and be able to articulate it to Alaskans' satisfaction. As Gov. Bill Walker learned in his first year on the job, sometimes a multibillion-dollar budget deficit immediately follows the election.
Whether the candidates' solutions to a budget gap include cuts, a reallocation of Permanent Fund revenue, or new revenue measures such as taxes, they owe it to voters to share those plans and demonstrate how they will be effective. Whatever budget path they choose, while oil prices stay high enough to allow for it, they should make an effort to replenish the state's savings accounts that have been drained by four years of deficit spending.
There is plenty to celebrate in the growing value of the Permanent Fund and the rising price of oil. But it doesn't absolve our leaders of making plans to address the potential for budget deficits, now that the Achilles heel of Alaska's economy has been made plain.
The views expressed here are those of the Anchorage Daily News, as expressed by its editorial board, which welcomes a broad range of viewpoints. Current editorial board members are Ryan Binkley, Andy Pennington, Julia O'Malley, Tom Hewitt and Andrew Jensen. To submit a piece for consideration, email commentary@adn.com. Send submissions shorter than 200 words to letters@adn.com or click here to submit via any web browser.