Pebble is fool’s gold and Alaskans know it

The Pebble Mine has been in the news a lot lately, largely because it’s an insane project facing overwhelming opposition that is somehow weeks away from a permitting decision. This means the Pebble spin machine is running wide open. So, it’s critical that Alaskans and all Americans continue to separate fact from fiction.

Fact: There is no precedent for a mine like Pebble coexisting with abundant salmon runs.

Pebble executives constantly push this fairy tale of large-scale, open-pit mining coexisting with abundant salmon runs. That sounds really nice, but where is the proof? In Canada, where the parent company Northern Dynasty Minerals is headquartered? No! Up until the late 1970s, Canada’s Fraser River watershed produced a similar volume of sockeye salmon as Bristol Bay. Since then, mining activity has skyrocketed and sockeye salmon stocks have plummeted so low that Canada’s Fisheries and Oceans department does not expect to allow any commercial or recreational fisheries for Fraser River sockeye in 2020.

What about the Red Dog Mine near Kotzebue? No! Salmon populations in that area are microscopic compared to Bristol Bay and even Pebble’s smaller (economically unfeasible) proposal would process seven-times more ore than Red Dog, which produced 756 million pounds of toxic chemicals in 2016. This is an apples-to-oranges comparison with far more downside and complexity in the case of Pebble.

Pebble’s CEO Tom Collier couldn’t name a single similar mine that didn’t have problems after just 20 years in this APRN interview from 2019 (go to the 4:37 mark). Incredibly, we could be weeks away from a permitted mine without any successful precedent.

Fact: The Pebble Mine is likely not economically feasible as proposed, and under any scenario creates substantial risk for Alaska taxpayers.

Based on estimates from a former Rio Tinto executive, the Pebble Mine is “almost certainly not economically feasible” producing a negative net present value of $3 billion. This means that if the mine is permitted, the eventual mine operator must cut every corner possible to grind out a profit. So where will all this money for general fund tax revenue come from?

A more likely outcome for Alaskans can be seen playing out in Montana, where taxpayers are paying for a cleanup bill nearing $100 million for a single mine – with no end in sight. Pebble will be a massive mine with extreme risks that could easily end up costing Alaskans (and their children) more than it ever produces in revenue.

Fact: The Pebble Mine is a not a job creator, it’s a job killer.

Bristol Bay is the world’s most valuable wild salmon fishery and is the foundation of Alaska’s salmon industry. The fishery directly employs nearly 15,000 people in sustainable jobs, 17 times more jobs than would be directly created by operating the mine. And it’s not just non-resident fishermen and processing workers who risk losing their jobs. Bristol Bay’s commercial salmon fishery directly employs nearly twice as many Alaska residents as the state’s entire (non-oil/gas) mining industry. The Pebble Mine will very likely trade one resource for another, and there’s no going back.

Fact: Alaskans, and specifically Bristol Bay residents, do not want the Pebble Mine.

Poll after poll tells us that Alaskans, and more importantly regional residents, do not want the Pebble Mine. Fifty-eight percent of Alaskans have an unfavorable opinion of Pebble, and 76% of Bristol Bay Native Corporation shareholders oppose the mine. That should mean something. Our state and federal governments need to show they work for Alaskans and the American public, not some Canadian mining company.

Fact: Copper is critical in the modern world, but it is also recyclable and reserves are abundant.

It is estimated that since 1900, two-thirds of the 550 million tons of copper produced are still in productive use. And there’s still a lot of copper yet to be mined. At current global production volumes, it would take more than 100 years to exhaust known copper reserves, based on data from the U.S. Geological Survey. The Pebble Mine isn’t about meeting critical demand for copper, it’s about creating a profitable exit strategy for a desperate mining company with no other assets.

Fact: The Pebble Mine federal permitting process has not been rigorous or objective.

We were told to “trust the process” and that the mine’s permitting would be rigorous and objective. Unfortunately, this has clearly not been the case. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has somehow managed to amass more than 3,000 pages of analysis in its final environmental impact statement (EIS) report, yet numerous, critical gaps remain.

There is no analysis of a major tailings dam breach (even though BBRSDA commissioned and submitted one). There is no economic feasibility study. Seismic analyses are faulty. There is a failure to consider project’s true scope and cumulative impacts. Analyses of water treatment and tailings storage are inadequate. The plan fails to adequately examine market impacts on salmon fisheries. There is inadequate analysis of impacts along the transportation corridor. Baseline data is likewise inadequate.

The Trump Administration and the Corps recently took a step in the right direction by requiring more stringent measures in Pebble’s compensatory mitigation plan, but many unanswered questions remain. We believe the Environmental Protection Agency should exercise its 404(c) veto authority over this project, or barring EPA action, that the Corps has no choice but to deny a permit for the Pebble Mine. Any other outcome would be permitting fiction over facts.

Fritz Johnson is a Bristol Bay commercial fisherman and Board President of the Bristol Bay Regional Seafood Development Association (BBRSDA). Mark Niver is a Bristol Bay commercial fisherman and chairs BBRSDA’s Sustainability Committee. Andy Wink is Executive Director of the BBRSDA, a fishermen’s association that seeks to maximize the value of the Bristol Bay commercial salmon fishery.

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