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Voters weeded the Alaska Legislature in Tuesday's election, likely changing the direction of the state's handling of our fiscal crisis.
Seven, or perhaps six, incumbent members of the House majority caucus lost the voters' confidence after their group resisted solutions to Alaska's overwhelming budget deficit and offered no solutions of their own.
That number of defeated incumbents is all the more remarkable because only 13 caucus members had opponents in the primary (including the three who were trying to move up to the Senate). And some of those opponents were weak.
[Incumbents feel sting of voters in Alaska primary election]
In a low-turnout election, the voices of the politically informed speak loudest. This election had nothing to do with who ran the best campaign or spent the most money. It was a throw-the-bums-out wake-up call for the political class.
Voters rewarded Rep. Paul Seaton, R-Homer, who did offer solutions, worked across the aisle and stood forthrightly for politically risky positions. He crushed an opponent who said she was recruited by the Alaska Republican Party and who received outside expenditure support, Homer Mayor Beth Wythe. She came in third.
Always the gentleman, Seaton refused to gloat when we talked Thursday. He is focused on finally getting his boat in the water after a summer spent in special sessions and on a campaign in which he had no time for door knocking.
Seaton said the voters' message could change the Legislature's approach.
"People are waking up and saying, 'The voters aren't happy if we aren't solving the problems,'" he said. "If that happens, things get a lot better for everybody."
Most Alaska legislators seem to be motivated primarily by fear. If they take the message that voters won't forgive them for failing to do their job, then we could expect some meaningful action next year.
But action also requires leadership. Many legislators move only in a group with someone to follow.
House Speaker Mike Chenault failed to lead his body toward a solution or even create the conditions for discussing one. He never let Gov. Bill Walker's plan come to the floor and his leadership group killed Seaton's bill that would have paired an income tax with a reduction of the Alaska Permanent Fund dividend to create a revenue system fair to rich and poor.
Chennault has said he will not serve again as speaker. He had no opponent Tuesday, but 19 percent of voters in his district turned in blank ballots rather than vote for him in an election without real choices.
[Questions arise over close House race after revelation of ballot mistake]
Seaton would not say if he will seek the speaker's chair. A bipartisan coalition led by moderates from both parties seems the best chance for solving the crisis, marginalizing the extremists among Republicans and Democrats who drew lines in the sand.
The fall election could make that more likely by further weeding the Legislature.
Rep. Lance Pruitt, R-Anchorage, is the most vulnerable of the remaining House majority incumbents. His East Anchorage district elected two progressives to the Anchorage Assembly and he has a strong opponent, Democrat Harry Crawford, who previously represented the area.
Rep. Liz Vazquez, R-Anchorage, faces a weak Democratic opponent, but a strong independent, Jason Grenn, who could threaten her in Sand Lake.
But some Democratic incumbents who would likely join a coalition are vulnerable, too, including Adam Wool in Fairbanks and Matt Claman in West Anchorage.
A coalition in the Senate could occur if two Republican incumbents lose their competitive races, John Coghill in North Pole and Cathy Giessel in Anchorage.
But that's insider stuff. The creation of legislative leadership groups mostly depends on the factors of chance, personalities and the way district boundaries are drawn to favor each party. Voters think about bigger and more basic issues when we choose how to use our ballots.
Here are some of those factors.
Walker told me recently he will submit a budget for next year based on no new revenues coming into the state (his budget last year reflected his plan to balance income and spending). It's impossible to balance the budget based on the state's current revenue, but extreme cuts could extend our savings another year.
If the governor submits such a budget early, say by the beginning of October, candidates would be forced to either endorse its draconian cuts — which will be unpopular — or to talk about revenues.
The apparent meltdown of the Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump, could also affect the outcome in November. A Trump loss in Florida would end his chance of winning the presidency. We could know that in Alaska before going home from work on Election Day, which could hold down voter turn-out, especially on the right.
As voters, we can also screen candidates for their honesty in addressing the fiscal problem.
Some Republicans have continued talking about budget cuts as a solution when they know that solving the state's fiscal problem by cutting alone is impossible. Some Democrats similarly lie to the public when they promise no cuts to the PFD.
The primary showed this strategy is dangerous. After all, if the Republicans could solve the problem by cutting, why haven't they done it over the many years they have controlled the Legislature? They set the terms by which voters are now grading them.
Next time you get your hands on a candidate, don't accept lines in the sand. Anyone who says we will have either no taxes or no dividend cuts is uninformed or dishonest.
Demand details. Economists say only a multipart solution will work, including oil tax reform, a dividend cap and broad-based taxes.
Don't vote for anyone who promises anything but pain and a hard road ahead. If we stick together and do that, we can finish weeding the Legislature and end up with a group that will do its work.
Correction: An earlier version of this column misspelled Sen. Cathy Giessel's first name.
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