‘Hot mess’: Trudeau’s turmoil draws Trump’s taunts

TORONTO - Canada’s government is melting down at the worst possible moment.

The country is girding for the return of Donald Trump, who many here see as an existential threat to Canada’s security. He has threatened to slap 25 percent tariffs on Canadian goods, levies that could crush the economy of a country that sends nearly 80 percent of its exports to its southern neighbor.

And he has taken to mocking embattled Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as the “governor” of the “great state of Canada” in middle-of-the-night social media posts that officials here have sought to cast as lighthearted ribbing but others view as not-so-neighborly and not-so-funny. On Christmas, he said he’d pitched hockey great Wayne Gretzky on becoming Canada’s next prime minister.

Now, weeks before Trump’s return, Trudeau is dealing with the bombshell resignation from cabinet of Chrystia Freeland, long one of his most loyal and powerful lieutenants.

Trudeau and his Liberal Party were already struggling in polls. Freeland’s abrupt announcement - even some friends were taken by surprise - has thrown his government into disarray. Adversaries and some erstwhile allies have intensified calls that he step down; rival parties say they will move a confidence vote when Parliament returns in January, which could trigger elections.

Freeland, who was finance minister and deputy prime minister, said she and Trudeau had been at odds on how to counter Trump. Now, Ottawa is likely to be weakened and distracted as it squares off against its largest trading partner in a potential trade war.

“This is really a hot mess,” said Daniel Béland, director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada at McGill University.

The timing “couldn’t be worse,” said Scott Reid, a former director of communications for Liberal former prime minister Paul Martin.

“Donald Trump smells weakness the way a shark smells blood, and everyone knows it,” he said. “No matter what option the prime minister chooses, no matter what path the country ends up following, Trump is going to perceive us as in a weakened position and therefore less able to exert leverage in the face of his demands.”

The president-elect noted Freeland’s resignation.

“Her behavior was totally toxic, and not at all conducive to making deals which are good for the unhappy citizens of Canada,” he crowed on his Truth Social platform. “She will not be missed!!!”

Not everyone here agrees.

Freeland earned plaudits for her work as foreign minister in steering Canada thorough the bruising renegotiation of NAFTA during Trump’s first administration, including from then-U.S. Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer.

People who worked on the renegotiation called her Canada’s quarterback. She drew praise for her mastery of details, for standing her ground and keeping cool even as Trump imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum.

“Like a football team or a hockey team, everybody has to play their positions to win,” said Flavio Volpe, president of Canada’s Automotive Parts Manufacturers Association. “But all the plays came through her.”

Trump’s disparaging comments, he said, are “the best indication that we have about how effective she was.”

At one point, she wore a shirt that said “Keep calm and negotiate NAFTA.” Foreign Policy magazine named her its diplomat of the year in 2018.

“No one will benefit from this beggar-thy-neighbor dispute,” Freeland told a Washington audience. “The price will be paid, in part, by American consumers and American businesses.”

Freeland had her detractors. Some viewed her focus on gender and the environment during the talks as unnecessary. Others saw her hardball approach not as strategic shrewdness but needless filibustering.

Jared Kushner, a former senior adviser to Trump and the president-elect’s son-in-law, blamed Freeland for “an increasingly frustrating series of negotiations.” He chided her in his memoir for the “political theater” of reading notes scribbled on her hand, refusing to make commitments and “uttering platitudes such as ‘I get paid in Canadian dollars, not U.S. dollars’” at news conferences.

Few acts in Canada’s recent history have been as dramatic as the one set in motion by Freeland’s announcement. Freeland said Trudeau had fired her as finance minister and sought to shuffle her into a lesser role.

She resigned from cabinet instead but not before issuing a stinging rebuke of Trudeau’s leadership. She accused him of focusing on “costly political gimmicks” - a veiled reference to a holiday tax break and rebate checks for some Canadians - when the government should be “keeping its powder dry” for a potential trade war. She called on Trudeau to “act in good faith and humility” with provincial leaders on countering Trump.

Since then, the government has been on its back foot. Trudeau has not directly addressed the resignation, and his office canceled year-end interviews. The number of Liberal caucus members calling on him to resign is growing. The New Democratic Party, which backed his government, said it would vote to bring it down after Parliament returns.

There is no mechanism to force Trudeau out, but analysts say he might find staying on untenable. Amid cost-of-living concerns, a housing shortage and voter fatigue, his Liberals trail the Conservatives by more than 20 points.

During the first Trump administration, Trudeau led a majority government and saw many friendly faces around the provincial premiers’ table. Even rivals rallied to his side. Now, he leads a minority government and several premiers are among his leading antagonists.

Trump, meanwhile, has surrounded himself with loyalists and has more experience operating the levers of power.

The president-elect threatened to impose the tariffs if Canada does not curb what he has called an “invasion” of migrants and fentanyl. (Just 1.5 percent of the migrants apprehended by U.S. Customs and Border Protection and 0.2 percent of fentanyl seized at U.S. land borders in the most recent fiscal year came from Canada.)

With the federal government on life support, provincial leaders have sought to play a larger role in the response, including by wading into areas under Ottawa’s jurisdiction. But even they can’t agree on the best way forward.

Some have proposed Canada strike a bilateral trade deal with the United States that excludes Mexico. They are divided on the use of retaliatory tariffs. Others have pledged their own border patrols, an idea that analysts say could be unconstitutional.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford, a Conservative, told The Washington Post that Canada is preparing a list of retaliatory levies. He supports halting energy exports to the United States as a measure of last resort, a move that other premiers oppose.

“I don’t feel that we should be going down this road,” Ford said, “but we can’t just roll over and watch our economy get destroyed.”

Laura Dawson, executive director of the Future Borders Coalition, said Canada’s response to Trump should be coordinated. “It’s not clear whether we’ve got some folks who are really, really freelancing,” she said, “And freelancing is not helpful.”

Ford dismissed those concerns. The premiers, he said, aren’t going rogue.

“We see a little bit of a gap right now at the federal government because of what’s going on,” he said. “At the end of the day, who gets hit, who’s responsible? The premiers are responsible for their own local economies. … It’s absolutely critical that the premiers step up.”

Trudeau jetted off to Mar-a-Lago last month, the first Group of Seven leader to meet with the president-elect, to dissuade Trump from imposing the levies, and Canada last week unveiled a $900 million plan to tighten the border with more aerial surveillance and new technology to detect fentanyl.

Trump claimed credit for the plan, but there’s no sign he will budge on tariffs. His description of the levies as a revenue-generating tool are fueling fears here that his apparent concern about border security is a pretense.

“If the reality is that he says: ‘Listen, thanks for all the action on the border. Now, I’m going to turn around and slap you right across the head as hard as I possibly can anyway,’ we know that we’re dealing with a situation where the only answer is going to be targeted pain,” Reid said.

“But the ability to marshal the political will accompanying that on the Canadian side,” he added, “is going to be somewhat compromised because of the political situation.”