Biden just set a new climate goal. Trump and other obstacles await.

President Joe Biden announced Thursday that the United States would aim to cut its greenhouse gas emissions at least 61% below 2005 levels by 2035, even as the nation remains far offtrack from meeting his previous climate goal - and as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to dismantle dozens of climate policies.

The announcement builds on Biden’s pledge in 2021 that the United States would seek to slash its emissions between 50 and 52% by 2030 relative to 2005 levels. Yet even before Trump won a second term, many analysts expected the country to blow past this prior target under the Paris climate accord.

In announcing the new goal a month before Biden will leave office, White House officials struck an upbeat tone, saying the country would continue to make climate progress over the next four years. But some analysts said the announcement succeeded only in highlighting how far off the nation’s climate targets truly are.

“This goal is very, very ambitious,” said Robbie Orvis, senior director of modeling and analysis at Energy Innovation, an environmental policy firm. “To achieve these numbers, given the incoming administration, would require a lot of unprecedented policies from nonfederal actors like states and cities.”

A recent analysis by Energy Innovation projected that the United States would reduce its emissions by roughly 37% by 2030 under current policies. The analysis accounted for landmark Biden policies that Trump has promised to undo, including the strongest limits to date on greenhouse gas emissions from cars and power plants.

In addition, the firm accounted for the clean-energy tax credits established by Biden’s signature climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act. Trump has pledged to work with Republican lawmakers to repeal many of these credits, even as they disproportionately spur investments in conservative states and congressional districts.

A recent study by Rhodium Group, an independent research firm, similarly projected that the United States would cut its emissions by 38% to 56% below 2005 levels in 2035.

“We are not on track for [the 2035 target] today. We were not on track for it even if all of the Biden administration policies were to be maintained,” said Kate Larsen, a partner at Rhodium Group who leads the firm’s international energy and climate research.

But, she added: “There’s 10 years between now and 2035. There’s two presidential elections between now and then. This is a long game.”

In a video address from the White House, Biden said his administration has carried out “the boldest climate agenda in American history.” Without mentioning Trump, he asserted that these actions would “transform our nation for generations to come.”

Biden plans to formalize the new goal in a submission to the United Nations, which has asked all nations party to the Paris agreement to update their climate targets by a February deadline. Trump has vowed to withdraw the United States from the Paris accord, as he did during his first term.

“The Biden-Harris administration may be about to leave office, but we’re confident in America’s ability to rally around this new climate goal,” John D. Podesta, senior adviser to the president for international climate policy, said on a call with reporters. “While the United States federal government under President Trump may put climate action on the back burner, the work to contain climate change is going to continue in the United States with commitment and passion.”

The U.S. Climate Alliance, a bipartisan coalition of governors representing nearly 60% of the U.S. economy and 55% of the U.S. population, pledged Thursday to work to meet Biden’s new climate goal. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) also vowed this week that his state would continue setting stronger climate rules for cars than those of the federal government.

“The 2035 climate target can serve as a North Star for states, cities and corporations that are committed to climate action, and ready to accelerate progress outside of Washington, D.C.,” Manish Bapna, president and CEO of the Natural Resources Defense Council, said in a statement.

At the U.N. Climate Change Conference last month in Baku, Azerbaijan, other developed countries announced their own fresh carbon-cutting targets. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, for instance, pledged that Britain - the world’s fifth-largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases - would aim for an 81% cut in its emissions by 2035.

One major question mark remains China, the world’s biggest annual emitter. While a growing number of analysts expect China’s carbon dioxide output to peak this year, it is unclear whether Beijing will be able to dramatically slash its emissions or merely let them plateau in the coming years.