U.S. watches warily as key Asian ally descends into political chaos

The Biden administration breathed a sigh of relief Tuesday as South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, in the face of overwhelming domestic opposition, backed down within hours from an emergency declaration of martial law.

But the fast-moving developments in a crucial part of the world left a deep sense of unease over the political future of one of the United States’ closest allies and concern for the tripartite U.S.-South Korea-Japan security pact, a deterrent against both China and Russia, that is one of President Joe Biden’s signature foreign policy achievements.

While Yoon is “one of the pillars of our regional engagement strategy,” said a U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the issue’s sensitivity, his political future is in doubt.

Following a narrow victory in elections last spring that saw the opposition Democratic Party - considered more accommodating toward North Korea and suspicious of close relations with the United States and Japan - win a legislative majority, Yoon quickly became mired in scandal and political turmoil and was threatened with impeachment. He accused the opposition of engaging in “antistate” activities in alignment with Pyongyang.

The startling news of Yoon’s action, coming as both Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken are traveling outside the country, caught the administration by surprise. Shortly after being informed of the situation in Seoul, Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell opened remarks at an unrelated State Department event Tuesday morning by voicing “grave concern” over “the recent developments in the ROK [Republic of Korea].”

As U.S. officials sought more information, Campbell said, “I do want to underscore that our alliance with the ROK is ironclad, and we stand by Korea in their time of uncertainty. I also want to just underscore that we have every hope and expectation that any political disputes will be resolved peacefully and in accordance with the rule of law.”

[Martial law, then a reversal: An astonishing six hours in South Korea]

The coming days are likely to be tense for both Seoul and Washington, although administration officials expressed some optimism that the three-way agreement would endure.

“There is a lot happening at the lower levels across the board, almost on a daily basis,” the U.S. official said. “We think that’ll continue because it’s in our common interest to do so.” The strategy was designed “to insulate it from any political changes or turmoil at the top.”

But Biden will “have to balance how good Yoon has been for U.S. alliance equities and strategic equities in the region versus whether they think this guy can survive,” said Victor Cha, a Georgetown University professor and former East Asia aide in the George W. Bush White House. Yoon and Biden seemed to hit it off during the South Korean’s visit to Washington last year, capped by Yoon serenading a state dinner with a creditable version of “American Pie.”

South Korea’s opposition parties Wednesday submitted a motion to impeach Yoon.

If Yoon is impeached or otherwise forced to step down, “for the United States, that’s a big loss, because Yoon has been a driver” of the three-way security pact, first agreed to at a Camp David summit in 2023 and institutionalized with a memorandum of understanding last summer. Yoon has also been a proponent of the “Washington declaration” to expand nuclear consultations between Seoul and Washington and to support Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression, Cha said.

Beth Sanner, a former top intelligence official in both Democratic and Republic administrations, expressed concern that North Korea may seek to take advantage of the chaos in the South. Korea watchers have been worried for months about North Korea conducting some sort of “kinetic action” in the next few months, perhaps shelling a South Korean island or sinking a South Korean ship, Sanner said.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un “could time this for a real dilemma” for President-elect Donald Trump, she said.

The Pentagon, with nearly 29,000 troops stationed in South Korea, quickly declared it had nothing to do with events there. U.S. military personnel were not used to enforce martial law, spokesman Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder told reporters, and the force protection posture of U.S. service members in the country had not changed in response to political unrest.

Ryder said he was unaware of any requests made by Seoul for military assistance, and repeated - as had officials at the State Department and the White House National Security Council - that the United States was not notified ahead of Yoon’s declaration.

The martial law order, signed by an Army general Yoon put in charge of its implementation, suspended all political activity in South Korea and opened the door for military deployments.

Concerns rose as the Americans - including the commander of American forces in South Korea - were unable to reach their counterparts there, a second U.S. official said. Eventually, although there was no Cabinet-level contact, the administration engaged on numerous levels, officials said.

After several tense hours, as protests in the streets of the capital grew into the night, the National Assembly in Seoul convened an emergency session and voted unanimously - including the head of Yoon’s own People Power Party - to block the decree.

On Wednesday at about 4 a.m. local time, Yoon went on national television and said the decree was lifted.

In a statement later issued from Brussels, where he is attending a NATO foreign ministers meeting, Blinken said the United States welcomed Yoon’s decision. Referring to the National Assembly vote and the South Korean constitution, he said, “We continue to expect political disagreements to be resolved peacefully and in accordance with the rule of law.”

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Alex Horton contributed to this report.