Trump’s economic team is surprisingly conventional. Will it limit tariffs?

President-elect Donald Trump has chosen relatively conventional experts to lead his second administration’s economic policy, even as he pursues tariffs that could upend the international trade order and fills much of his Cabinet with ideologues and loyalists.

Trump tapped a former Fox News host to lead the Defense Department and a vaccine skeptic to run the Department of Health and Human Services; his choice for attorney general, former congressman Matt Gaetz (R-Florida), withdrew from consideration after even GOP senators said they doubted he could be confirmed. In contrast to those picks, Trump has received bipartisan praise for his selections to arguably the two most important economic positions in his administration - the financier Scott Bessent, chosen to be treasury secretary, and conservative economist Kevin Hassett, chosen to lead the White House National Economic Council. Democrats have policy disagreements with both men, but economists from both parties broadly see them as likely to exert a moderating influence on Trump’s most extreme impulses to upend the global trade order.

[Trump’s threatened tariffs would likely raise prices for consumers, colliding with promise for relief]

Still, many Trump allies caution that their selection isn’t necessarily evidence that the incoming administration will be any less aggressive on trade. On Monday, the president-elect vowed dramatic tariff hikes on the United States’ three largest trading partners, which could disrupt trillions of dollars worth of commerce. Bessent and Hassett have also in recent months taken pains to publicly stress their support for Trump’s trade agenda, demonstrating a willingness to defend measures that many of their former colleagues view as counterproductive.

“I think they’re mainstream picks - they’re right down the economic strike zone. Clearly, more conservative than liberal, but down the middle, mainstream,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, of Bessent and Hassett. “From my perspective, they’re very good choices, and I’m very encouraged by them. But I don’t know how much influence they’ll have over trade policy, which I think is running on its own dynamic.”

But the selections have intensified questions about how hard Trump will really push to implement his economic policy agenda, which in the 2024 presidential campaign included tariffs as high as 20 percent on every U.S. trading partner.

Proponents of a major shake-up of international trade wanted Robert E. Lighthizer - a trade hawk who ran the office of the U.S. Trade Representative during Trump’s first term - to be secretary of the Treasury or Commerce departments, or, barring that, director of the economic council. Trump picked a Wall Street CEO, Howard Lutnick, for Commerce, and the president-elect says Lutnick will also handle most of the U.S. trade representative’s duties. With those posts off the table, it’s unclear whether Lighthizer, who provided much of the foundation for Trump’s trade policies, will return to government.

Meanwhile, Bessent is a former lieutenant of GOP boogeyman George Soros and is well-known by financial officials around the world. Hassett, formerly an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, a conventional center-right think tank, has long-standing ties to Washington’s economic establishment, and his selection was praised by some Democrats who served in the Obama and Biden administrations.

One former Trump administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share his candid assessment, said it has always been clear that Trump prioritizes the stock market over rebalancing international trade. The president-elect has long boasted of the performance of investments under his first administration. Sweeping new tariffs risk hurting the stock market, even though many Trump allies say the import duties are necessary to bring back domestic manufacturing jobs. But concerns about market reaction may at least partially have driven the president-elect to turn to a more traditional team of economists, like Bessent and Hassett, the official said.

“If it was just Hassett or just Bessent alone, it would be much harder to say - but the combination of them should be able to have some influence, and it will be a moderating influence when it comes to tariffs,” said Constance Hunter, chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, a division of the Economist Group.

But many others point out Trump may still proceed with the tariffs. Steven Mnuchin, Trump’s first treasury secretary, was widely viewed as a tariff skeptic inside the administration, but Trump still imposed import duties on more than $300 billion worth of goods from China and other countries. Before he wound up as Trump’s choice for Commerce, Lutnick vied for the Treasury post as a more stalwart advocate of tariffs than Bessent. And on Tuesday night, Trump selected Jamieson Greer, a close ally of Lighthizer, to lead the trade office.

Hassett’s selection could also say more about the importance of the upcoming 2025 tax fight than anything about Trump’s trade policies. The longtime adviser played a key role in crafting the 2017 Trump tax cuts, and many experts believe he will play a central role in pushing for their extension in negotiations with Congress.

Ultimately, even the more mainstream picks could wind up going along with Trump. Bessent’s selection was delayed as Trump transition officials looked closely into his comments on tariffs, according to two other people with knowledge of the matter, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private deliberations. During that impasse, Bessent published an opinion piece in Fox News lavishing praise on Trump’s policy plans.

“Tariffs have a long and storied history as both a revenue-raising tool and a way of protecting strategically important industries in the U.S.,” he wrote. “The reflexive opposition to tariffs represents political ideology and advocacy, not considered economic thought.”