3 ways TikTok might survive a ban, with or without Trump’s help

There’s a law on the books that says TikTok will be banned in the United States as soon as January, unless it finds a new owner that isn’t Chinese.

That’s still unlikely. Yet, as my Washington Post colleagues have reported, some advisers to President-elect Donald Trump expect him to intervene to save TikTok from a ban, if necessary.

This is an outline of three ways TikTok might outlast a ban (again), and why people who love the app need to get comfortable with the persistent risk of TikTok being kicked out of the United States.

Maybe never before has a technology this popular - about 1 out of every 3 American adults uses TikTok, Pew Research says - lived under such a cloud of doom.

Option 1: A Trump rescue

Trump, who announced four years ago an ultimately unsuccessful ban of TikTok but changed his mind about the app as he campaigned for president, could be TikTok’s savior.

Experts who spoke to my Post colleagues said Trump could order the Justice Department not to enforce the law signed this spring that requires a sale or ban of TikTok.

Or Trump would have the power as president to declare that TikTok has complied with the law, “whether it’s true or not,” Alan Rozenshtein, a University of Minnesota associate law professor and a former national security adviser to the Justice Department, wrote for Lawfare.

Representatives for TikTok and the Trump campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

TikTok has been hoping and planning for a Trump rescue. Senior TikTok executives loosened some content rules to appeal to conservatives, the Information recently reported. They wanted Trump to start posting on the app - which he did this spring - because they believed he could influence Americans’ views of TikTok, the technology news outlet said.

Whether because of Trump or not, many Americans have changed their views about TikTok. In March 2023, about half of Americans supported a ban on TikTok in the United States, but by this summer, only 32 percent did, according to Pew Research surveys.

Option 2: Beat a ban in court

TikTok argued in legal filings that the U.S. government does not have compelling national security reasons to override Americans’ free speech rights by banning TikTok.

(A reminder: Many U.S. politicians fear the Chinese Communist Party might use TikTok to skew Americans’ beliefs or harvest personal data. U.S. officials have not provided public evidence that those abuses have happened.)

During a court hearing in September, judges seemed skeptical that TikTok’s right to free speech outweighed national security concerns. If the judges rule against TikTok in a decision expected within weeks, the company could appeal to the Supreme Court.

Rozenshtein believes the government’s legal case to uphold the ban is strong and he doubts the Supreme Court would side with TikTok. “You never know,” he said, “but I’m highly skeptical the courts will save TikTok.”

Option 3: A halfway measure

There’s a recent example of TikTok overcoming government opposition that threatened the app.

Last year, Indonesia’s government cracked down on foreign online shopping apps, including TikTok, over worries they were hurting local businesses. TikTok had to suspend its popular shopping feature, TikTok Shop, in the country.

Within a couple of months, though, TikTok Shop found a way to reopen. TikTok merged with an Indonesian e-commerce company and voilà: TikTok was essentially no longer a foreign online shopping company. It was an Indonesian one.

It’s not a perfect comparison to the U.S. ban, but the case in Indonesia shows that TikTok can change just enough to satisfy a skeptical government.

Maybe TikTok’s business partnership with Oracle, the software company that had influence in the first Trump administration, can provide a path to a halfway measure that might let the White House declare victory over China and move on.

Oracle declined to comment.

Okay, but then what?

Popularity, savvy strategies or powerful allies have protected some technologies like Uber and cryptocurrencies from laws and regulations that have threatened their existences. The TikTok law could be different.

Relying on a mercurial president is not a foolproof strategy for TikTok. And fears of China’s government using technology such as TikTok to hurt the United States are one of the few bipartisan issues in Washington.

Jennifer Huddleston, a technology policy specialist at the Cato Institute, worries that the TikTok sell-or-ban law gives current or future presidents too much unchecked power over which apps can survive in the United States.

That means a threatened ban could come at any time for TikTok and other apps from China or other countries considered adversaries, said Huddleston, whose organization typically favors less government intervention.

People who use TikTok will need to live with the uncertainty that the app might be kicked out of the country. It’s probably a good idea to download a copy of your TikTok data, and try to follow your favorite TikTok creators on other apps.