With progressive ballot measures on track to fail, California’s political identity is questioned

LOS ANGELES — There was no surprise on election night when a solid majority of California voters selected Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump. But the outcomes of a list of ballot measures told a more complicated story of a state known for its liberal bent.

Voters overwhelmingly supported a measure to undo a decade of progressive criminal justice reform, and preliminary poll results showed they were poised to reject measures that would increase the minimum wage and ban forced prison labor.

Proposition 6 — which would ban “involuntary servitude” as punishment for a crime — lacked majority support in deep-blue California on Wednesday even as supporters promoted it as a way to end what they call modern-day slavery. A similar measure was on track to pass in Nevada.

California voters also rejected a measure that would have made it easier for cities to impose rent control and pass local bond measures for affordable housing. 

Some progressive voters in the state, where Democrats control the governor’s office and Legislature, were dumbfounded by the early results, while Republicans seized on the moment as proof that California is becoming more conservative.

“It’s a new day in California,” Assembly Republican leader James Gallagher of Yuba City said in a social media post about the election results. “The shift is beginning.”

But longtime California election watchers were more tempered about what the outcome of the ballot measures say about the state’s political leanings.

Mark Baldassare, survey director for the Public Policy Institute of California, a nonpartisan think tank that conducts polling, said confusing initiative descriptions can deter voters from supporting initiatives even if they actually agree with their intent — especially in a state that is accustomed to seeing a slew of wonky questions on their ballot each year on issues from kidney dialysis to condoms.

“Propositions are a part of the ballot where you don’t have Ds and Rs, you have yeses and nos,” Baldassare said. “The electorate looks at this on an issue-by-issue basis. I don’t feel like it’s necessarily an indicator that it’s a shift to the right. I think that the default for the voter is always ‘no.’ "

Californians have defied the state’s liberal reputation when voting on ballot measures before. They have twice rejected ballot measures to abolish the death penalty in the past; and in 2008 they passed Proposition 8, which banned same-sex marriage. (On Tuesday, Californians passed a measure that stripped the last vestiges of Proposition 8 from the California Constitution, reaffirming gay marriage, which remains a federal right.)

Campaign messaging goes a long way for ballot measures, Baldassare said, and voters often weigh their decisions partly based on who is listed as supporters and opponents alongside the question on the ballot. Sometimes, it gets complicated.

In the case of Proposition 33, which was endorsed by the California Democratic Party and would have repealed a law that bars local governments from regulating rent on some buildings, even rent control proponents fed up with the cost of living voiced concerns about unintended impacts of the measure.

Millions were spent for and against Proposition 33, with opponents warning it could make California’s housing shortage worse. A proposition coined as a “revenge measure” was added to the ballot, targeting how a healthcare foundation that is a prime proponent of rent control measures could spend their revenue.

Proposition 6 proponents chalked up its likely failure not to voters’ support for “slavery” but to growing concerns about public safety and how those worries could impact any policy measure related to prison reform. In addition to approving Proposition 36, which cracks down on criminal sentencing for theft and fentanyl crimes, voters also ousted progressive-leaning prosecutors in L.A. County and the Bay Area.

Antonio Villaraigosa, the former Los Angeles mayor who is running for governor in 2026 and is expected to position himself as a moderate among a crowded field of Democrats, was reluctant to speculate about what ballot measure results mean before all of them are called. But he said he believes voters want a “course correction” on issues like crime and the economy.

As the Democratic Party nationally grapples with a potential Republican trifecta — winning control of the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives — and what it means for its movement and the future of the nation, California politicians also need to take a pulse check, he said.

“Are we really listening to people or are we spending all of our time telling them what they ought to do?” Villaraigosa said.

But many California Democrats were undeterred by the ballot measure results, again gearing up to lead the resistance against Trump. They pointed to the approval of progressive-backed causes such as a historic climate change bond and a measure to extend a tax to fund Medi-Cal as proof California remains a liberal bastion in a sea of red.

Assemblymember Alex Lee, D-San José, chair of the California Progressive Legislative Caucus, said that he’s disappointed by some of the ballot measure results but that “all the corporate and conservative special-interest money” spent on the complex initiatives should be considered before making judgments about the state’s electorate.

“On the whole, California is still more progressive than a country where just over half of the voters voted for a fascist,” Lee said just hours after Trump was elected to return to the White House.