What to expect from the battle for the House and the Senate

As Americans head to the polls, Democratic and Republican strategists can agree on one thing: The race for control of Congress is going to be close - possibly very close.

The Republicans are confident that they have a good chance of winning back the Senate from the Democrats. The Democrats say they have a solid shot at the House, which the Republicans hold.

If those predictions prove correct, the country would be headed for a historic ‘double flip,’ where voters flip the majorities in both chambers, but in opposite partisan directions - a result that could make it tough for the new president to govern.

But that outcome is far from certain - and we may not know for a while what has happened. In 2022, the calls for both chambers took days.

Here’s what to watch while you wait.

Senate races to watch

This year, Democrats face a daunting map, with their slim 51-seat majority looking increasingly at risk. Republicans are all but certain to pick up the seat of retiring Sen. Joe Manchin III in West Virginia, putting pressure on two Democratic incumbents in the Trump-supporting states of Montana and Ohio to hold on to their seats despite fierce political headwinds.

Ohio could be an early bellwether for the Senate map, given that polls in the state close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time and results are reported fairly quickly. Republican candidate Bernie Moreno, a car dealer, has been lagging behind Donald Trump in the polls as he seeks to knock out Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). If Moreno looks as if he’s outperforming the polls in this toss-up race, it could be a sign that Republicans are poised to have a good night. If the race is too close to call, or if Brown holds a lead as the night wears on, Senate Republicans’ hopes would be dramatically tempered and all eyes would be on Montana.

Montana probably holds the key to Senate control. In 2018, the state was called for Sen. Jon Tester the day after Election Day, when he defeated his Republican challenger by 3.5 percentage points. Polls have suggested that Republican Tim Sheehy’s lead over Tester in the red state is larger than that, but it could take a while for the race to be called, given that the polls do not close there until 10 p.m. Eastern time and are often reported gradually.

Democrats’ two main hopes for flipping seats are in Nebraska, where an independent candidate, Dan Osborn, has mounted a surprisingly strong showing against Sen. Deb Fischer, and in Texas, where Rep. Colin Allred has taken on Sen. Ted Cruz. Osborn has not said whether he will caucus with Democrats or Republicans in the Senate, but he has suggested he may caucus with neither, like the late Sen. George Norris (I-Nebraska). Nebraska reports its results relatively quickly, and if the independent candidate is not surging there, it would cast doubt on the viability of Democrats’ long-shot hopes of denying Republicans a majority.

Many of the most crucial races this cycle are in states where results have historically come in slowly. Republican challengers in Arizona and Nevada -Kari Lake and Sam Brown - have trailed Democrats in the polls, but it may take days to find out whether those polls were accurate.

And the Senate races in Pennsylvania - Sen. Bob Casey vs. Republican David McCormick - and Michigan - Rep. Elissa Slotkin vs. Mike Rogers, a former congressman - also could take a while. In Wisconsin, the fate of Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin may not be known until the next day, given that the race is expected to be close and absentee ballots often aren’t counted until after midnight.

It may become clear by the end of the night whether former GOP governor Larry Hogan’s bid to become senator in the blue state of Maryland has succeeded given that the state reports results fairly quickly. He’s pitched himself as a Trump critic and abortion rights supporter but trailed Angela Alsobrooks in the polls.

[Trump wants the presidential winner to be declared on election night. Here’s why that’s unlikely.]

House races to watch

House Democrats need to flip only four Republican-held districts to win back the majority they lost in 2022. But many races are too close to call: As of Monday evening, the Cook Political Report rated 22 House districts as “toss ups.”

House Republicans must defend 16 seats in states that reliably vote Democratic, including nine across California, New York and Oregon. Democrats, meanwhile, are fighting to keep 11 seats.

New York counts its ballots relatively quickly and could offer an early indication of how things look. There are four districts Joe Biden won in 2020 that Republicans currently hold. If Democrats flip those seats, they will have clinched the majority.

House Democratic and Republican campaign strategists believe that GOP Rep. Brandon Williams’s seat in Syracuse is destined to flip. The next race to watch is GOP Rep. Anthony D’Esposito in Long Island. If he gets reelected, it’s likely that Republicans will have an easier time holding Rep. Michael Lawler’s and Marcus J. Molinaro’s seats in northern New York - and their majority.

Virginia’s 7th Congressional District is more competitive than in past cycles because Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) is not seeking reelection. The race is between two Army veterans and lawyers: Eugene Vindman, a Democrat who, along with his twin brother, played a key role in Trump’s first impeachment, and Republican Derrick Anderson, who worked in the Trump administration. Democrats must keep this seat to remain competitive in their bid to flip four seats across the country.

Democrats are feeling bullish on flipping back Virginia’s 2nd District, which is represented by GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans. But public and private polls show the incredibly tight race favoring Republicans.

In Nebraska, Democrats have long tried to unseat moderate GOP Rep. Don Bacon, who represents a district anchored around liberal Omaha. His swing district remains incredibly competitive, and it’s possible that Harris’s expected success in Omaha could pull his Democratic challenger, Tony Vargas, across the finish line.

Republican incumbents representing two swing Iowa districts - Zach Nunn in the 3rd District and Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the 1st District - seemed destined for reelection until their races began to tighten in early October. House Republican lawmakers and campaign strategists point to lagging national fundraising and a Kamala Harris-driven enthusiasm bump in such liberal-skewing cities as Des Moines and Iowa City that could turn out Democrats who sat out the midterm elections.

Even if both races remain too close to call by the late Tuesday evening, Democrats believe they will be competitive across the country.