In a matter of days, it will be over. Americans have been counting down for months and are eager to get to the finish. Many are consumed by fear and trepidation about the outcome of what they see as the most trying and consequential presidential election in memory.
Former president Donald Trump is fully known, through his record in office and the promises he has made for a second term: retribution, revenge, across-the-board tariffs and mass deportation of undocumented immigrants. As he closes out his campaign, he is as dark as ever: unapologetic, threatening and profane.
Vice President Kamala Harris is not fully known and therefore is, to some voters, a risk. Her policy record is largely that of the Biden administration, with some new ideas aimed at easing concerns about high prices. She seeks to expand her appeal beyond the Democratic base with a message of inclusion, but she is a prosecutor by training and has spared no vitriol when presenting the case against her opponent.
Harris says she wants to be a president for all Americans and has been endorsed by a string of Republicans who have broken with Trump, including former congresswoman Liz Cheney. He speaks about the “enemy within,” staged a rally at Madison Square Garden last weekend that was filled with racist rhetoric by his various surrogates, and on Thursday night talked about having guns pointed in the face of Cheney, who led the House investigation into the Jan. 6, 2021, attack at the Capitol and has campaigned with Harris.
There is no middle ground left, at least not on the question of who should win. Everyone understands the stakes and the two starkly different paths upon which Harris and Trump would lead the country. Roughly half the country wants to go one way and roughly half the other way. Those on the losing side will feel as if the apocalypse has occurred. It is an all-or-nothing election, for those who choose to vote.
Predictions on this final weekend come with major caveats. Seven states will decide the outcome. By now, they are well known: In the North, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In the South and Southwest, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona.
By the polling averages, all are within the statistical margin of error, which means the winner could eke out the narrowest of electoral college majorities by winning a small combination of the seven or put together a sizable electoral majority by winning more. But even if one candidate wins most or all of the seven battlegrounds, many of them could be decided by margins of a percentage point or two.
Four years ago, three states (Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin), were won by less than a percentage point. In that election, the shift of about 43,000 votes would have given Trump the victory over President Joe Biden. Eight years ago, Trump broke the so-called Blue Wall of Democratic states by winning Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but in each his victory margin was less than a percentage point.
Each candidate has various paths to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. Harris’s priority is to do it through the three northern states, which have voted as a block in every presidential election since 1980, with the exception of 1988. Trump’s goal is to disrupt that pattern, eyeing Pennsylvania as the most disruptive, given that it has 19 electoral votes, the most of any of the battlegrounds. A Washington Post poll released Friday shows that state tied.
More than 70 million voters already have cast their ballots, either in person or by mail, but it is challenging to determine which candidate they favor until they are tallied on Tuesday.
Never in recent memory have the polls been so close in all the battleground states on the weekend before Election Day. But in the past two elections, polls were faulty. In 2016, the national polls correctly pointed to a popular vote victory for Hillary Clinton, but polls in the states overestimated her chances of victory in the electoral college. Four years ago, the polls overstated Biden’s strength, though they were correct in pointing to his popular vote and electoral college victory.
Pollsters are nervous too at this moment. There are more state polls this year than ever and if they understate Trump’s support again, then he is headed to a second term in the White House. But if they underestimate Harris’s support, she could be an easy winner. If they are dead-on accurate, within the limits of polling error, then it could be a long night and a few more days to finish counting votes before a winner is declared.
Turnout is always the key to victory and all the more so this year, given the closeness of the race. Harris is judged to have the more extensive get-out-the-vote operation, but will it be the most effective? Trump is his own turnout machine, though nearly as helpful for motiving Democrats as his own supporters.
Trump in past campaigns did an impressive job of increasing turnout in the red counties outside major population centers, slightly enlarging his margins of victory in those places. This year, the question is whether he can squeeze even more out of those counties - more voters and even bigger margins. It won’t be easy.
Harris must maximize the vote in the cities, especially Detroit, Philadelphia and Milwaukee in the northern tier, preventing any backsliding in turnout or in her margins over Trump with Black voters there. Equally important for Harris will be the suburbs, where the entire election could be won or lost.
This election, more than any other, is one that pits men against women. The gender gap is long established, with men favoring Republicans and women favoring Democrats, but the messages from Trump and Harris have amplified that divide.
One thing of note is that more women than men cast votes. In 2020, according to network exit polls, women made up 52 percent of the national electorate. In the battleground states, that reached as high as 56 percent (in Georgia and North Carolina) and as low as 50 percent (in Wisconsin). Currently, women make up 53.5 percent of the early votes in the seven battlegrounds, according to an analysis by TargetSmart, a Democratic firm.
Harris has no more passionate supporters than women. Those with Harris are angry over the elimination of the constitutional right to abortion and they are repulsed by Trump, who was convicted in a case involving sexual abuse and who only last week said he would protect women “whether they like it or not.” They see in him an abusive and amoral politician. But will they vote in the numbers Harris needs to win?
In some cases, the gap between men and women is huge. Younger voters are considered more Democratic than Republican, but Trump is changing that. The Marquette University Law School issued a Wisconsin poll that week that included a chart pooling responses from polls done between July and October. One finding was striking: Women between the ages of 18 and 29 backed Harris by a margin of 36 percentage points. Men of the same age were backing Trump by 1 percentage point.
Two of the most interesting groups of voters are men with college degrees and women with some college or less. Women with college degrees are firmly with Harris and men without degrees are firmly with Trump. The other two groups are more conflicted. Men of all races with degrees are marginally with Harris. Women of all races are less strong for Trump than men without degrees.
There is speculation about a “shy Harris” vote - women who aren’t telling pollsters that they plan to support Harris. But are some men not telling pollsters, or their spouses or significant others, that they plan to vote for Trump? There is some anecdotal evidence that both are true. She seeks a coalition that goes beyond the traditional Democratic constituencies. He already has reshaped his party into one that goes beyond traditional Republican constituencies by broadening its appeal to working-class voters.
By the time early voting ends, it’s likely that the number of votes cast in person or by mail will equal about half of the total votes (158 million) in 2020. The cliché that it’s all about turnout is true, and the candidate who does a better job of bringing out new or infrequent voters could gain the advantage.
But the final days of campaigning count, too, and the questions are whether Trump has drawn too much negativity to himself and his candidacy in the past week and whether Harris can close the sale with voters who see Trump as flawed but have had doubts about her.
This election has been unusual for another reason. There have been few shifts in public opinion since the start, except in the weeks after the June debate in which Biden stumbled badly and before he quit the race when Trump rose in the polls. Before and since, voters have divided almost evenly in their sentiments. But out of this stark divide there will be only one winner. Is the country ready for whatever outcome might occur?