With Vance’s rocky debut, Republicans ask if Trump’s VP bet will pay off

Until the very end, some people close to Donald Trump tried to talk the former president out of picking Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate.

Aboard Trump’s plane en route to Milwaukee for the Republican National Convention, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) argued that Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) would be better than the untested Vance because the Cuban American senator might attract more votes in battleground states. He tried to recruit others on Trump’s plane to support his position, according to people with knowledge of the discussions.

Another adviser argued in a phone call a couple of days earlier that Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) or Rubio would be a better choice because of Vance’s previous comments opposing abortion, asking Trump how he would defend some of the senator’s positions that seemed further to the right than his.

An array of senators, donors, conservative media personalities and other supporters called Trump in the final 48 hours before the announcement, lobbying for Rubio or someone other than Vance because they said other candidates could attract additional voters to Trump’s coalition, according to five people familiar with the talks who, like others interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

Trump listened as each person made their case, but they said the former president said his gut had been with Vance for many weeks, if not months - liking his Rust Belt upbringing, foreign and economic policy positions, pugnacious TV appearances and academic pedigree. Vance had influential backers, including Donald Trump Jr. and tech billionaires.

Trump later said choosing Vance was a difficult pick, likening it to “The Apprentice,” his former reality television show, in a meeting with Florida’s delegates in Milwaukee. But Trump said it was partially about securing the future of the Republican Party after he was gone. “He is going to be a superstar in the future,” Trump told the Florida delegates huddled inside the Baird Center, according to an attendee.

Whether that bet - one of the most consequential Trump will make this year - pays off remains unclear. In the nearly two weeks since, President Biden has dropped out of the race and Vice President Harris is now the likely Democratic nominee, energizing Democrats. Vance, meanwhile, had a rocky first full week on the campaign trail since departing the convention, attracting unwanted attention to the Republican ticket.

The Trump campaign has spent the past week trying to clean up after Vance’s controversial comments, including previous interviews in which he mocked “childless cat ladies” or took a position on abortion much stronger than Trump’s.

In addition, previous emails between Vance and a friend reported by the New York Times show Vance saying he hated the police because they mistreated people, calling Trump a “morally reprehensible human being” and saying that “the more white people feel like voting for Trump, the more Black people will suffer.” A Trump adviser called the emails “not ideal.”

Vance has come under attack from friendly quarters, as well, including the conservative Wall Street Journal editorial board, social media personality Dave Portnoy and conservative media star Ben Shapiro. Some question the vetting from Trump’s team and are asking if picking Vance could now backfire.

Some Republican strategists said they fear Vance could hurt the ticket with suburban women - a group where Trump saw significant erosion in his 2020 loss after his 2016 win. Among Trump allies, there has been “constant discussion about whether the president made a bad choice,” according to one longtime adviser. Text message chains have blown up with his “awkward public appearances,” the person said.

Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung defended Vance’s performance as Trump’s running mate. He said the criticism is “nothing more than musings from out-of-touch individuals who have no idea what’s going on. They are so out of the loop, they might as well be living in a different universe.”

Trump’s campaign aides say the former president remains confident in Vance. The two appeared together at a fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago Thursday evening and at a Minnesota rally Saturday. Vance flew to Oklahoma City on Friday, where he headlined a fundraiser with oil baron Harold Hamm that was said to have raised more than $2 million. He is expected to keep a busy travel schedule - both appearing in Midwestern states and raising money. The campaign has also been pleased with Vance’s sharp attacks against Harris in recent speeches.

“President Trump is thrilled with the choice he made with Senator Vance to be his running mate, and they are the perfect team to take back the White House,” Cheung said. “Meanwhile, Democrats are in complete disarray after their coup that forcibly removed Biden from the campaign, proving they are the real threats to democracy.”

Trump was aware, advisers said, that Vance had been critical of him in the past. People familiar with the vetting said that Trump’s team was aware of some, but not all, of his previous comments that have drawn attention - and expect more revelations to come. Top advisers to Trump watched many of his previous interviews, read his book, “Hillbilly Elegy,” and asked him questions, along with a more formal paperwork process, a Trump adviser said.

“A thorough and exhaustive vetting obviously took place and there was no doubt Senator Vance was absolutely qualified to be the next Vice President of the United States. In politics, people usually cower in fear and curl up in a ball when things get tough. Not Senator Vance and certainly not President Trump,” Cheung said.

Kevin Madden, a spokesman for Mitt Romney’s presidential campaigns, said the Trump-Vance campaign appears to have been “caught flat footed with past comments.”

“Every single day on a presidential campaign, you are getting a political colonoscopy,” Madden said. “But what’s compounded here in this case, we’re talking about a 39-year-old who is one-third of the way through his Senate term and that’s why you’re seeing the sort of bumpy start.”

The particularly rough start for Vance has come as a welcome surprise for the Harris campaign, according to a Harris aide who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share private conversations. Although they had expected Vance to face some questions over his past critiques of Trump, the Harris team had not expected some of the harsh internet buzz.

“We did not expect we would have cat lady news cycles,” the aide said. “This is organically happening without us pushing. … I’ve never seen anything like it. It’s so weird.”

The Harris campaign has tried to highlight other past comments, such as Vance’s positions on abortion - an issue Trump has often sought to avoid and that polls show is a vulnerability for Republicans with the general electorate. People close to the Harris campaign say the selection of Vance makes the arguments easier.

KamalaHQ, the Harris campaign’s rapid-response X account, has repeatedly posted old Vance content. In one video clip from a 2021 talk about no-fault divorces, Vance says that divorces, even after domestic abuse, maybe “worked out for the moms and dads, though I’m skeptical. But it really didn’t work out for the kids of those marriages.”

In an audio clip from a 2022 podcast, Vance advocates for a “federal response” to restrict women traveling across state lines for abortions. And in a 2016 video of Vance on the speaking circuit after his book release, he says Trump is “a really bad candidate and frankly I think he’s a really bad person.”

Vance has said those clips about policy positions were taken out of context and that his position on Trump has evolved since he saw Trump in action as president.

Vance has drawn significant mockery and derision for having said on Fox News in 2021 that women politicians like Harris who haven’t given birth are “childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives.” He added that they have “no direct stake” in America’s future.

Vance went on Megyn Kelly’s show and tried to clarify these previous comments. “I’ve got nothing against cats. I’ve got nothing against dogs. I’ve got one dog at home and I love him,” he said. “People are focusing so much on the sarcasm and not on the substance of what I actually said, and the substance of what I said, Megyn - I’m sorry, it is true. It is true that we’ve become anti-family. It is true that the left has become anti-child.”

Vance spokesman William Martin said it was “no surprise” that Democrats were attacking Vance and that Vance was planning instead to highlight the Biden administration’s record on inflation and immigration. “Those are the issues voters actually care about, no matter how much the leftwing media wishes otherwise,” Martin said.

Vance was pushed by Trump Jr., the former president’s eldest son, and a range of influential others, including tech billionaires such as Elon Musk and media personalities such as Tucker Carlson.

One of Trump’s goals in the pick was to have a candidate with Midwest roots who could “camp out” in states like Pennsylvania and talk to blue-collar voters. Trump is underperforming with White men and Vance could help shore up that base, advisers say.

Another goal was to tap into Vance’s significant donor network, including in Silicon Valley. And Trump liked Vance on television, advisers said.

“JD’s book is number one on Amazon right now. People are paying him to read his life story. The Harris campaign will have to pay TV networks and social media platforms to tell her life story,” said Justin Sayfie, a Florida lobbyist who has raised money for Trump.

David Urban, a longtime Trump ally in Pennsylvania, said he believed Vance’s personal story would resonate with blue-collar voters.

“If he goes and says to people at a town hall, or at a rally, how many people have been affected by drugs and alcohol? How many people in this crowd have worked two or three jobs and feel like they can’t get ahead? How many people in this crowd have joined the military to further yourself?” Urban said.

So far, Vance has received warm, if far smaller, welcomes than Trump.

One of the first bumps in the campaign trail came as early as Vance’s rally Monday in his hometown of Middletown, Ohio. The auditorium of the high school he attended filled with a few hundred people, including those he had known from childhood - among them his mother and beloved math teacher - chanting “J-D!”

When an audience member shouted at Vance about requiring identification to vote, the candidate, new to the national stage, got distracted. The diatribe that followed became the most watched moment from the whole event.

“It is the weirdest thing to me, Democrats say that it is racist to believe - well, they say it’s racist to do anything. I had a Diet Mountain Dew yesterday and one today; I’m sure they’re going to call that racist, too,” he said.

Greg Hieser, 68, watched the event and said he still believed Trump and Vance would win - even if he had some misgivings about Vance’s speaking style.

“He’s still green about it,” Hieser said, “but he’ll get the hang of it.”