Analysis: What Biden and Trump need to do to win tonight’s debate

What Biden, Trump need to do to win Thursday’s president debate

President Biden and former president Donald Trump will face off Thursday in the first presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle, offering a rare chance for viewers to watch the two candidates contrast their vision for the future.

“No question, this is a high-stakes moment for both candidates,” said Kate Bedingfield, a former White House communications director for Biden who helped him prepare for his 2020 debates, and who now works as a political commentator for CNN.

The debate will probably be the first time many voters tune into what they have to say, so their performances could shape the rest of this very close race. When the two last debated in 2020, Trump constantly interrupted Biden, which some strategists said damaged his campaign. This time, the mics will be muted when it’s not a candidate’s turn to speak, and there won’t be a live audience.

The 90-minute debate is hosted by CNN. It will start at 9 p.m. Eastern. The Post’s coverage of the debate will kick off with live analysis beginning at 8 p.m. Eastern.

[Here’s what to know ahead of tonight’s presidential debate]

Here’s what strategists on both sides say needs to happen for each candidate to have a successful debate.

Biden should pin Trump on abortion, immigration and preserving democracy

Democratic strategists say Biden is expected to steer many conversations back to his bread and butter on the campaign trail: talking about issues around protecting Americans’ freedoms - whether that’s voting access, reproductive care or democratic norms. Polls show that a vast majority of Americans support abortion rights and that stopping threats to democracy is a top issue for Americans on both sides of the aisle.

“Biden’s goal is to remind voters this is not a referendum on Biden; it’s a choice between him and Trump,” said Democratic strategist Tim Hogan, who worked for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign in 2016 and Amy Klobuchar’s in 2020.

But voters who say democracy is a top issue aren’t necessarily Biden voters. In six swing states, key voters who could decide the election trust Trump more than Biden on democracy issues, according to according to a new Washington Post-Schar School poll.

On immigration, Biden may be on the defensive. Record levels of migrants have been crossing the southern border since he took office. Leading up to this debate, he has upset both sides of the aisle: He made moves to close the border when migrant crossings hit a certain number per day, enraging civil rights groups. And he just made it easier for undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens to get a path to citizenship, which many in his base support.

But partly because of his overall unpopularity, Biden should spend less time defending his record and more time pitching what he’d do in his second term, Democratic strategists said.

Biden needs to avoid major stumbles that highlight his age

Even though both men would be the oldest president ever if they win in November, voters say they’re more concerned about Biden’s age, 81, than Trump’s, 78. So Biden may be under more of a microscope than Trump if he commits any verbal stumbles - an unfair measure, perhaps, given he has a stutter - or gives a lackluster performance. Rather than scripted speeches, he’ll have to compete in real time with Trump’s showmanship.

Democratic strategists expect Biden to come across as fiery and passionate. They point to Biden’s performance at the State of the Union in March, where he slammed Republicans and challenged them in real time to a debate as an example of a strong public performance.

Democrats anxious about Biden’s performances shouldn’t be, Bedingfield said. “He really is a game day player,” she said. “And he certainly knows the stakes of this debate. So I think we can expect a really energized, engaged and aggressive Joe Biden is going to show up.”

Trump should stay focused on the issues, rather than grievances

Republican strategists say Trump should avoid the tones of grievance he strikes on the campaign trail, where he frequently claims without evidence that he won the 2020 election and complains that he’s being unfairly prosecuted by the Justice Department. In his ideal debate, he won’t call those who stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, “patriots” or talk about pardoning them, and he’ll stay focused on pocketbook issues.

“Trump talking about retribution is unnecessary,” said strategist Jesse Hunt, who has run communications for Republican candidates across the country. “It distracts from the real differences he has with Biden, and that is what independents care about.”

When it comes to issues voters care deeply about, Trump does well with voters. Right now, polls show voters give him better marks than Biden on handling the economy, crime and immigration. Trump’s advisers have urged him to talk about the differences between his presidency and Biden’s when it comes to inflation and immigration, The Washington Post’s Michael Scherer and Marianne LeVine report.

The main question for Trump allies is whether he can stay on message.

“When Trump speaks, he speaks with such conviction that it gives people confidence he knows what he’s talking about,” Hunt said.

But Trump needs to be clear about his abortion stance

Strategists on both sides say Trump needs to give a clear answer on where he stands on abortion bans and medication abortion. This is one of the few major issues that play strongly for Biden, and Trump has tried to avoid taking hard-and-fast positions on how and when abortions should be allowed.

For example: After paving the way for the court to overturn Roe v. Wade with his three Supreme Court nominees, he says bans should be left up to the states. But when an 1860s abortion ban was revived in Arizona, Trump said it went too far. (The governor signed a repeal in May.)

He’s also ducked saying what he thinks should happen with a pill commonly used in medication abortion that the Supreme Court recently protected.

And Trump needs to avoid looking unhinged

The Biden campaign has been working hard to cast Trump as unhinged, more so than the last time he was president. If Trump performs at this debate like he does at his rallies - last weekend he suggested migrants fight for sport - he could play right into that narrative.

“Voters know a lot about these guys,” said Sarah Longwell, the publisher of the anti-Trump, conservative Bulwark media franchise, “and the question for them is: ‘Am I more worried about Biden being older, or am I more worried about Trump being a crazy lunatic?’”