Renewables are proving no match for the world’s appetite for fossil fuels

The last year has been filled with energy news that seems hopeful. The world has now installed more than 1 terawatt of solar panel capacity — enough to power the entire European Union. Purchases of electric vehicles have been surging: Over 1 million vehicles have been sold in the United States this year, with an estimated 14 million sold worldwide. And, looking at the rapid growth in wind, batteries and technologies such as heat pumps, you could be excused for thinking that the fight against climate change might actually be going . . . well.

But a new analysis, released Tuesday morning local time as world leaders gather in Dubai to discuss the progress in cutting emissions, shows the grim truth: The surge in renewables has not been enough to displace fossil fuels. Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are expected to rise by 1.1% in 2023, according to the analysis from the Global Carbon Project.

“Renewables are growing to record levels, but fossil fuels also keep growing to record highs,” said Glen Peters, a senior researcher at the Cicero Center for International Climate Research in Oslo who co-wrote the new analysis.

The growth in emissions comes largely from India and China — which continue to burn large amounts of coal as their citizens use more electricity — and from increases in flying and international shipping. Emissions from aviation, which have been returning to normal levels since the coronavirus pandemic, are projected to grow by a gigantic 28% in 2023.

And while emissions are declining slightly in developed countries, such as the United States and the European Union, they aren’t falling quickly enough. Emissions in the United States are projected to decrease by 3% this year — American emissions from coal will drop to levels not seen since the early 1900s — while E.U. emissions will fall by about 7%.

A single-digit growth in emissions may not sound like much, but global temperatures won’t start to level off until net carbon emissions reach zero. Even if emissions started to plummet rapidly in the next year or so, it would take years to reach zero — and during that time, temperatures would continue to rise.

The contrast between the growth in renewables and the continued increase in fossil fuel emissions reflects one of the greatest debates around climate change: whether the growth of clean energy will, on its own, be sufficient to curb planet-warming emissions.

So far, countries around the world are fighting climate change by subsidizing renewable energy rather than putting firm limits on the use of fossil fuels. The Biden administration’s landmark climate bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, funnels about $370 billion toward building wind and solar infrastructure, as well as batteries and electric vehicles — but the United States is still the world’s largest producer (and consumer) of fossil fuels. The European Union does have a system that limits the use of fossil fuels in electricity generation, but it doesn’t yet include cars on the road or other sources of carbon pollution.

Part of that stems from politics: Attempts to tax or limit CO2 emissions have often sparked significant backlash. But many experts say that just boosting clean energy won’t be enough to really cut fossil fuels. “We’re just not putting in policies that push fossil fuels out,” said Peters, the researcher in Oslo. “Fossil fuels just happily keep growing.”

Even at the largest international climate meetings, discussing the end of fossil fuels has triggered contentious fights. Delegates at the U.N. climate conference, known as COP28, are battling over whether agreement language should call for a “phase out” or a “phase down” of fossil fuels.

The new data also means that the world is becoming more and more unlikely to hit its goal of keeping the planet from warming more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) to avert devastating climate impacts. Although world leaders continue to discuss the goal at global warming talks — U.N. Secretary General António Guterres described the world as “minutes to midnight for the 1.5-degree limit” last week — most climate scientists now believe that global temperatures will pass that threshold sooner rather than later.

“We’re probably so close now, there’s not much that can be done to avoid 1.5,” Peters said. “It’s more about keeping as close to 1.5 as possible.”