Russian elite brace for sweeping Kremlin investigation of Wagner rebellion

RIGA, Latvia - The Kremlin was in overdrive on Thursday striving to consolidate control and project an image of normalcy as questions swirled about the whereabouts of a top general and Russia’s elite steeled themselves for a sweeping investigation into last weekend’s mercenary rebellion.

Among those being questioned, according to Russian media and members of the elite, was Gen. Sergei Surovikin, commander of the Russian aerospace forces, who had good relations with Wagner boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin. He reportedly intervened to sort out Prigozhin’s demands for ammunition after complaints that his fighters were poorly supplied.

Some members of the Russian elite, terrified at how close Prigozhin’s fighters got to Moscow and to setting off a civil war, raced to show their loyalty to President Vladimir Putin. But rumors abounded and paranoia deepened over whether Prigozhin had support from the upper reaches of Russia’s military or security services, and what the probes might reveal about treachery within Putin’s regime.

A well-connected veteran journalist, Alexei Venediktov, said that Surovikin was in southern Russia and “hasn’t been in touch with his family for three days.”

“As I was told, he is writing explanations and reports,” Venediktov told The Washington Post on Thursday, adding that it was not clear whether this was part of an official investigation.

His daughter, Veronika Surovikina, dismissed speculation that he had been arrested, telling Baza, a Telegram channel linked to Russian law enforcement, that he was at work in his office.

Amid the blizzard of reports that Surovikin had been out of touch since Saturday when he recorded a video urging Prigozhin to halt the rebellion, his daughter said she was in contact with him and “nothing happened to him.”

“When did he make daily appearances in the media? He never used to make daily public statements,” she told Baza. “As far as I understand, everything is going the way it usually goes. Everyone is at their workplaces. Everything is fine.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not comment on whether Surovikin had been detained, directing all questions about the general’s whereabouts to the Ministry of Defense.

[Russian general is believed to be detained in aftermath of Wagner mutiny]

Analysts and members of the elite said the Kremlin needed answers on how the situation had spun out of control, particularly given that some Russian authorities knew about Prigozhin’s plans beforehand, as the head of the Russian National Guard, Viktor Zolotov, claimed to journalists on Tuesday.

“Perhaps it was only not expected by Putin,” said one Moscow business executive, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal.

“So this is the question: why and who is responsible,” said Konstantin Remchukov, editor in chief and CEO of Nezavisimaya Gazeta, who was among a group of newspaper editors to meet with Putin on Tuesday.

“Definitely there will be questions to everyone in this vertical of military and special service people - who cooperated with Prigozhin, were confronted with Prigozhin, or looked after Prigozhin or overlooked what he was doing? Whose reaction was in due time and whose reaction was not in due time?” Remchukov said in a phone interview from Moscow.

“And from this point of view, I suspect that Surovikin will be among those who will be talked to by those who conduct this internal investigation.”

One St. Petersburg business executive said a former associate who was close to Prigozhin had “disappeared to the bottom of the sea” in the hope that no one would question him. “He is trying not to show himself anymore,” said the St. Petersburg executive, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal.

Kremlin-connected political consultant Sergei Markov said the investigation into the mutiny was far-reaching.

“Everyone who was close to Prigozhin is being investigated,” Markov said. “I am sure that at least several hundred people are being investigated. The aim is to get information about who in reality took part or did not take part, to find out who took part in the betrayal, who took part in some kind of negotiations and should have told the authorities about it.”

“I am sure they are questioning everyone, including Surovikin and all the other generals and officers, soldiers,” Markov added.

Amid the intense, opaque intrigues in Putin’s court, dismissing Surovikin is fraught with risk for the Russian president, who risks deepening divisions in the military and undermining morale at a crucial point, amid a Ukrainian counteroffensive aimed at driving back Russian forces.

Surovikin, described by Russia analyst Mark Galeotti as being “not a nice man” but “a dangerously competent general,” is popular among some hard-liners. Russian media have nicknamed him “General Armageddon” for his ruthless approach on the battlefield.

Putin “needs to step around Surovikin very carefully,” said Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Russia’s onetime richest man, now an opposition figure in exile after being jailed for 10 years by Putin. “He needs to find a formula under which Surovikin is almost not guilty of anything because otherwise it means exposing that there was a broad conspiracy in the army. And the fact that the front line [in Ukraine] could collapse in this situation is for sure.”

Political analyst Tatyana Stanovaya, of Paris-based political consultancy R.Politik, predicted that there would be some arrests, but figures like Surovikin were “less likely to be targeted,” although she said his ultimate fate remained unclear.

“I don’t expect a purge in the style of Stalin; that’s not Putin’s approach,” she wrote on Twitter.

Remchukov said the biggest question was why no one acted in response to Prigozhin’s increasingly hysterical, public criticism of Russia’s military command in the weeks before the rebellion, which plainly violated tough Russian laws against discrediting the military.

“The very clear feeling was that the rebellion could have happened only because nobody did anything over the previous four weeks, when he openly and loudly violated Russian legislation,” the newspaper editor said.

Peskov declined to comment Thursday on whether there was a need to punish some officials in the wake of the rebellion. And he said he had no information about Prigozhin’s location, as questions mounted about the group’s financing and its future operations in Africa and the Middle East.

The Kremlin has been trying to cement the narrative that Russian society united around Putin as columns of Wagner fighters marched toward Moscow and shot down helicopters from the sky. But questions persist about why the Russian president failed to control the situation in the run-up to the rebellion. His refusal to communicate with Prigozhin appears to have been one factor.

Putin has been unusually visible, appearing every day but Sunday since Prigozhin seized control of the Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov-on-Don on Saturday and demanded that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the chief of Russian general staff Valery Gerasimov be handed over to him.

After Putin greeted crowds late Wednesday in Derbent, Dagestan, in southern Russia - in what appeared to be a highly staged event designed to counter the recent images of crowds cheering Prigozhin as he departed Rostov - the president showed up Thursday at an Agency for Strategic Initiatives forum titled, “Strong Ideas for a New Time.”

At the event, Putin attempted to send a message to Russians that life was back to normal and he was in charge. He did not mention the mutiny.

“A strong, responsible civil society is the foundation of our country’s sovereignty,” Putin said, though for years he has been steadily dismantling Russian civil society. The Kremlin stepped up the crackdown after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, jailing activists, critics, opposition figures and ordinary citizens for years, even for minor criticism of the war.

Putin spoke on Thursday of the need to promote Russian brands and dabbled in trivial matters, at one point discussing the prospects for Russian ice cream sales in the occupied Luhansk region of Ukraine. At another point, he scrawled on an interactive screen, drawing an odd cartoon caricature with a square head, smiley face and wiry hair.

He admired a computer gaming station and sat in a special gaming chair, saying “Beautiful,” and “Comfortable, huh?” It all seemed part of an effort to soothe anxious Russians, many of whom were stunned by Saturday’s crisis, and the unprecedented sight of Putin momentarily losing control.

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Belton reported from London.