Winter storm hitting Lower 48 threatens holiday travel boom

A fierce winter storm that could hit large parts of the Lower 48 states in coming days has the potential to cause massive flight delays and cancellations and create treacherous road conditions during one of the busiest travel weeks of the holiday season.

More than 112 million people are expected to travel more than 50 or more miles away from home between Dec. 23 and Jan. 2, according to AAA, an increase of 3 percent over last year but still below pre-pandemic numbers.

The bulk of those on the move - estimated at nearly 102 million - will drive, according to AAA. More than 7 million will fly, while several million more will take the train or use other modes of transportation. According to AAA, 2022 is shaping up to be the third-busiest year for holiday travel since it began tracking the numbers in 2000.

But many of those trips could be disrupted by a massive storm that could bring snow and wind to the Rockies and northern Plains beginning Wednesday before moving east. For airlines, which have spent months preparing for one of the busiest travel periods of the year, the timing could not be worse. The most significant impacts are expected Thursday and Friday.

The Federal Aviation Administration is expecting Thursday to be the busiest travel day of the week, with 47,554 scheduled flights. On Friday, more than 44,300 flights are scheduled.

Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist, said he thinks as many as 5,000 flights could be delayed or canceled if the storm, as predicted, causes blizzard conditions at airports in Chicago, a major hub for United, and in Detroit, a major hub for Delta Air Lines. The storm also could bring heavy rain and gusty winds to major airports along the I-95 corridor, including Washington Dulles International, Reagan National, Philadelphia, Boston and all New York-area airports.

In anticipation of the storm, many carriers have begun issuing travel waivers that allow passengers to reschedule their flights with no change fees.

“American Airlines continues to monitor Winter Storm Elliott, which is expected to impact airports in the midwestern and northeastern U.S. this week,” the carrier said Tuesday. “Critical to our preparations was sizing the airline for the resources we have available and operating conditions we face.” In hopes of preventing last-minute disruptions, the carrier has issued travel waivers for 57 airports that will allow passengers to rebook without change fees. “We’ll continue monitoring Winter Storm Elliott and make any adjustments to ensure the safety of our customers and team members,” American said.

Highway travel across much of the central and eastern parts of the country could also be affected by the blizzard, and some roads could be closed, Porter said.

Despite continued concerns about the economy, Americans have proved they’re willing to spend on travel, a trend that has fueled record revenue for airlines in 2022. And even as health experts have renewed their push for Americans to get up-to-date on vaccinations in anticipation of another covid-19 winter surge - on top of an early and aggressive flu season and high levels of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) - people are determined to take advantage of the first holiday season in three years that is free of pandemic-related travel restrictions and mask mandates.

“People do want to travel,” said Sharon Pinkerton, senior vice president for legislative and regulatory policy for Airlines for America, a trade group that represents the nation’s largest airlines. “Something we all know but bears repeating is the pandemic has changed all of us. And one of the changes is that people value experiences over things, and they’re voting with their pocketbooks by getting back to travel.”

After a difficult summer, the Thanksgiving travel period was relatively trouble-free for airlines, aided in part by good weather across the United States, a massive hiring push and lessons learned from the summer. The Transportation Security Administration reported that it screened more than 2.5 million passengers on the Sunday after Thanksgiving - the most in a day since the pandemic began.

TSA Administrator David Pekoske said the agency anticipates similar passenger volumes during the upcoming holiday and is prepared. He said the agency expects it will meet its wait time standards of 30 minute or less in standard lines and 10 minutes or less for travelers enrolled in TSA PreCheck. However, he cautioned that waits could be longer at busier airports, so travelers should plan accordingly.

After a second summer of travel disruptions that drew scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers, airlines know they are being closely watched.

“We’ve really done three things: hiring, reducing capacity in . . . schedules, and building in reserves and buffer in the system,” said A4A’s Pinkerton during a recent briefing with reporters.

But the pending storm will test those efforts. Weather is always the wild card at this time of year, and even the best-prepared airlines may struggle to maintain their operations.

Pinkerton said carriers are adding an average of 4,600 employees a month. Some, such as American Airlines, are deploying new tools to get ahead of possible disruptions. The goal is to avoid a repeat of last year, when a surge of infections fueled by the highly contagious omicron variant of the coronavirus exacerbated staffing shortages during Christmas and into the new year. That, combined with severe winter storms, led to massive flight cancellations and delays that took weeks to unwind.

In all, more than 28,000 flights were canceled between Dec. 24, 2021, and Jan. 7, 2022. On social media, travelers shared photos of baggage claim areas clogged with hundreds of suitcases waiting to be reunited with their owners. It was the most severe disruption since 56,000 flights were canceled in a single week at the outset of the pandemic, when people didn’t want to fly.

Last year, Alaska Airlines, hit hard by record snow in Seattle the day after Christmas, encouraged customers to put off travel until after the new year to help reduce the strain on its operations. The carrier also trimmed its 2022 schedule to better align with its resources.

Ben Minicucci, the airline’s chief executive, said those changes, coupled with aggressive hiring, have enabled the carrier to run one of the most reliable operations in 2022. Alaska also is taking a more proactive approach when there is potential for weather-related disruptions.

“When we see a big storm coming, we’re going to scale back our schedule a few days in advance to make sure that we can operate reliably,” he said. If there are changes, he said, the goal is to let customers know before they even leave for the airport.

American Airlines is also preparing.

“We’re definitely better staffed and we learned that lesson in 2021 and that was our rule going into 2022, is that we’re going to have the right resources available to fly the schedule,” said David Seymour, chief operating officer for American Airlines. “Our schedule will match the resources that we have, so we feel really good about that. And that’s across the board, whether it’s flight crews, pilots, flight attendants, our airport or maintenance.”

In addition, the carrier has a new tool that will enable it to get ahead of potential disruptions. The Hub Efficiency Analytics Tool, or HEAT, allows American to adjust its operations for weather or other disruptions at its largest hubs. The goal is to find a solution that reduces the impact on customers and crew using data that examines the number of potential flight cancellations and missed connections and other criteria.

For example, if there are potential storms at American’s hub at Dallas-Fort Worth, the airline can slow operations into the airport during the time the storms are expected to hit and then ramp up again once they’ve cleared. By intervening early, the airline has more control over its operations.

The FAA has tools it uses to slow air traffic in the event of unfavorable weather, heavy traffic volume or other issues that affect national airspace operations. The agency can issue ground stops or ground delays, but often those decisions don’t give airlines enough time to adjust their schedules. With HEAT, Seymour said, the goal is to get ahead of a potential issue, reducing or even eliminating the need for the FAA to put restrictions in place.

American began using HEAT in the spring, and while it won’t eliminate delays and cancellations, it enables the airline to reach out to customers earlier and improves the ability to get them to their destinations as planned, Seymour said.

With strong passenger demand, airlines will finish the year well-positioned for 2023, said Henry Harteveldt, an aviation analyst. As for holiday operations, it’s still too soon to tell. The pending storm could throw a wrench into their carefully laid plans.