Here’s where abortion access hangs in the balance during the midterm election

The Washington Post has identified at least nine states in which the outcome of key midterm races has the potential to directly affect abortion laws, with many voters getting their first opportunity to cast ballots since the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade in June.

These races include contests for governor and attorney general as well as those that would determine which party gains control of legislatures in states where power could shift. The Post is also tracking ballot measures in two states that could alter abortion access.

This analysis focuses on state-level elections because, since the fall of Roe, states have the power to ban abortion. It highlights contests that were rated as competitive by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report and focuses on races where candidates or party leaders have taken a clear position on the issue or vowed to address it.

We are not including races for the judiciary because the direct impact on abortion from the outcomes of those contests is less clear. Control of Congress could also influence abortion access, as some Republicans plan to push a national abortion ban if the GOP wins power.

Here are the top nine states where abortion access hangs in the balance and election results could prove pivotal.

[Justice Department dispatching Election Day monitors to 64 jurisdictions across the U.S.]

Arizona

Current law: Abortion is temporarily legal up to 15 weeks. A near-total ban first enacted in 1864 has been blocked by the courts.

What’s at stake: The governor’s office and control of the state legislature are up for grabs, and both outcomes could affect abortion policy. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Katie Hobbs has pledged to veto antiabortion legislation, while Republican Kari Lake has said she would support a near-total abortion ban. And though Republicans currently hold a slim majority in both legislative chambers, Democrats can win power by flipping two seats in the House and two in the Senate. Democratic leaders have promised, if they win the majority, to repeal the 1864 ban, which has been blocked by the Arizona Court of Appeals but could be restored by the state Supreme Court.

Arizona also has a high-stakes race for attorney general. If the 1864 law takes effect again, Democrat Kris Mayes has promised not to prosecute people who seek out abortions or those involved in providing abortion care. While that kind of commitment likely would not provide enough security for abortion clinics to stay open, it would allow people in Arizona to distribute and use illegal abortion pills with less fear of prosecution.

Florida

Current law: Abortion is legal up to 15 weeks of pregnancy under a law passed this year by the GOP-controlled legislature and signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).

What’s at stake: Republicans firmly control the legislature, making the governor’s race the one to watch. If DeSantis wins the governor’s race, Republicans will have a clear path to heeding the calls of antiabortion activists in the state for a stricter abortion ban. Democratic candidate Charlie Crist has promised to sign an executive order protecting abortion rights on his first day as governor.

Georgia

Current law: Abortion is legal until cardiac activity can be detected, around six weeks of pregnancy, under a law signed by Republican Gov. Brian Kemp.

What’s at stake: If Kemp wins reelection, he and the GOP-led legislature will likely face calls from antiabortion groups to enact a total ban. If Democrat Stacey Abrams wins, she would be in a position to veto additional restrictions. To eliminate the six-week ban, Democrats would need to win majorities in both chambers of the legislature, which is unlikely to happen in the near future.

The race for attorney general could have implications for those helping people in Georgia to access abortion illegally beyond the six-week mark: Incumbent Republican Attorney General Chris Carr is a staunch supporter of the six-week ban, while Democratic challenger Jen Jordan has said she would not defend the law.

Kansas

Current law: Abortion is legal in Kansas up to 22 weeks of pregnancy.

What’s at stake: Kansans showed their support for abortion rights in August, when they voted overwhelmingly to reject an amendment that would have eliminated constitutional protections for abortion. Despite that vote, the Republican-led legislature could still try to push through antiabortion legislation. That would be more difficult - though still possible - if Democrat Laura Kelly holds the governor’s mansion. Kelly has reiterated her support for abortion rights since the referendum. While her GOP opponent, state Attorney General Derek Schmidt, identifies as “pro-life,” he has said that the August vote should be “respected” going forward.

[Republicans sue to disqualify thousands of mail ballots in swing states]

Kentucky

Current law: Abortion is almost entirely illegal in Kentucky, under a trigger ban that took effect this summer.

What’s at stake: A referendum in Kentucky backed by antiabortion advocates, similar to the one in Kansas, could make it virtually impossible to effectively challenge antiabortion legislation in court, amending the state constitution to clarify that it does not protect the right to abortion. If the ballot initiative fails, abortion rights groups may have a better shot at blocking Kentucky’s abortion ban in court.

Michigan

Current law: Abortion is legal in Michigan up to the point of viability, between 23 and 24 weeks of pregnancy. A 1931 abortion ban was blocked by the courts in September, but that ruling has been appealed and could be reversed.

What’s at stake: There are several votes that could determine the future of abortion access in Michigan, where Republicans currently hold majorities in both legislative chambers. The first is the vote for governor: Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has made supporting abortion rights central to her reelection campaign, filing a lawsuit that has prevented Michigan’s pre-Roe ban from taking effect. Republican challenger Tudor Dixon has expressed support for the 1931 ban, saying she backs abortion bans without exceptions for rape or incest. The second is a ballot initiative, backed by abortion rights supporters, that would enshrine the right to an abortion in the state constitution.

The Michigan attorney general’s race is also one to watch, with Republican Matthew DePerno promising to enforce Michigan’s pre-Roe ban, and Democrat Dana Nessel pledging the opposite.

North Carolina

Current law: Abortion is legal up to 20 weeks of pregnancy.

What’s at stake: The crucial results to watch here are in the state legislature, where Republicans are hoping to win a veto-proof majority to prevent the state’s Democratic governor, Roy Cooper, from blocking abortion restrictions. Republicans need to flip just two seats in the Senate and three seats in the House to win the supermajority. The GOP leadership has expressed support for banning abortion once cardiac activity is detected, or after the first trimester, around 13 weeks of pregnancy.

Pennsylvania

Current law: Abortion is legal up to 24 weeks of pregnancy.

What’s at stake: With Republicans holding firm majorities in both chambers of the state legislature, Pennsylvania is one GOP governor away from a strict abortion ban. The current Democratic governor, Tom Wolf, has pledged to veto antiabortion legislation - a promise echoed by Democratic gubernatorial nominee Josh Shapiro. Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano, a state senator, sponsored a bill in the legislature that would have outlawed abortions as soon as cardiac activity is detected - and later asserted that women who get abortions after 10 weeks of pregnancy should be charged with murder. Mastriano has said that, as governor, he would welcome the opportunity to sign an abortion ban into law.

Wisconsin

Current law: Abortion has been almost entirely banned since June, when an 1849 abortion law took effect.

What’s at stake: The key races here are for attorney general and governor, as well as several tight contests in the state legislature.

The only path to eventually restoring access to abortion in Wisconsin is a lawsuit filed by Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul, who is seeking reelection. His Republican challenger, Eric Toney, has pledged as attorney general to enforce the 1849 law and could move to dismiss Kaul’s lawsuit.

If the 1849 law is blocked by the courts, Wisconsin’s Republican-led legislature is expected to consider a “heartbeat ban” - which would outlaw abortion after cardiac activity is detected - in an upcoming legislative session. Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, who is running for reelection, would be in position to veto that legislation, whereas his GOP challenger, Tim Michels, has said he would sign an abortion ban that includes exceptions for rape and incest. However, Republicans are just five seats away from winning a veto-proof majority in the House and one seat away in the Senate, giving them the potential to pass new abortion restrictions over the objections of a reelected Evers.