The campaign ads are already blaring, attacking Florida Republicans for supporting pro-gun laws. Nowstudents — survivors of the mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School — have traveled by busloads hundreds of miles to protest in the state Capitol.
Seven days after the killing of 17 people at the Broward County school, Republicans, who dominate government in the state, are facing pressure unlike any they have experienced before to pass legislation addressing gun violence. The state Legislature is in session for roughly two more weeks, and Republicans have concluded that it would be catastrophic to wrap up without doing something to address the mounting outcry.
The debate now is over what counts as doing enough.
Republicans split — sharply, and sometimes face to face — with student demonstrators over that question Wednesday morning. Having arrived in Tallahassee overnight, the young activists quickly set about advocating for sweeping new gun restrictions, included expanded background checks for gun purchases and an outright ban on the sale of military-style firearms. One student, Alondra Gittelson, 16, confronted the powerful speaker of the Florida House, Richard Corcoran, demanding to know why "such a destructive gun" — the AR-15 rifle — is widely accessible.
"How is an individual in society able to acquire such a gun?" Gittelson asked Corcoran on the House floor.
Corcoran's reply, that he saw the rifle as a legitimate hunting weapon and did not believe a ban would help matters, encapsulated the far more conservative instincts of Florida's Republican-controlled government.
Stopping well short of the clampdown sought by survivors of the school shooting, Corcoran, Gov. Rick Scott and other Republicans appear set on pursuing a narrower resolution — a package of incremental measures that would improve certain background checks and bolster mental health services and school security.
The developing clash over firearms could help define Florida politics in a critical election year, testing Republicans' decades-old grip on state government and handing proponents of gun control a potent issue to wield with moderate voters. In a state where the National Rifle Association has long held powerful influence — every governor for 20 years has been an ally of the group — even fierce supporters of gun rights now say Republicans cannot afford to seem passive in response to gruesome scenes of violence.
Will Weatherford, a former speaker of the Florida House, said Tuesday that the ferocious public response to the Parkland shooting exposed pent-up feelings of alarm and horror that have mounted over time. Weatherford, a conservative Republican, said legislators might be able to move quickly on a few tailored proposals, such as raising the legal age for possessing assault rifles.
"With Pulse, with what took place in Las Vegas, there's been an aggregate effect," Weatherford said, referring to the mass killings in 2016 and 2017 at an Orlando, Florida, nightclub and an outdoor concert in Las Vegas. "All of it is adding up and there's a lot of frustration that's boiling over."
Weatherford said he expected the Legislature to take action of some kind, but cautioned: "It's hard to write a thoughtful policy in three weeks."
Proponents of stricter gun control, however, seem unlikely to be appeased by what they perceive as half-measures. Democrats and activists responded with fury to a vote in the Florida House on Tuesday against considering a ban on assault weapons, and Gwen Graham, a leading candidate for governor, said in an interview that the vote showed "the gun lobby is in control of Tallahassee."
On Wednesday morning, students voiced exasperation and distress in response to the reticence of some Republicans to back new gun regulations. One such lawmaker, state Sen. Debbie Mayfield, a Republican, told students that she supported raising the age requirement for purchasing assault weapons from 18, and rebuffed criticism from one student, Daniel Bishop, 16, who said that measure alone would not stop mass killings.
"We can't stop crazies," Mayfield said.
Amanda De La Cruz, 16, was dismayed. "She doesn't support the ban on semi-automatic weapons," she lamented. "I want the ban on semi-automatic weapons. I don't care about the crazies."
That ban appears likely to be on the ballot, at least figuratively, in this year's elections: All four Democrats running for governor in 2018 have called for an assault weapons ban, and members of Florida's congressional delegation have pushed for a broad reassessment of gun regulations at the federal level. No Republican candidates for statewide office have backed the proposal.
Rep. Stephanie Murphy, a Democrat who represents the Orlando area, said voters in her largely suburban district had reached a breaking point on the gun issue. Murphy, who has introduced legislation to authorize the Department of Health and Human Services to study gun violence, said the government had failed to keep pace with regular people's concerns about mass killings.
"People are angry and they're outraged and they're motivated," said Murphy, who defeated an NRA-backed Republican in 2016. "We were affected by Pulse less than two years ago, and here's another mass shooting."
The revival of gun regulation as a political issue comes at a precarious moment in Florida politics, as a polarizing president warps traditional political boundaries in the state. President Donald Trump narrowly defeated Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in the state in 2016. But since then, Republicans have experienced several setbacks in special elections, as traditionally Republican-leaning voters have deserted the party in heavily suburban and Hispanic districts. In 2018, control of Florida's governorship, the state Senate, several congressional seats and a U.S. Senate seat are expected to be intensely contested.
The gun issue could drive an even deeper wedge between rural parts of the state, where Trump remains popular, and its cities and suburbs. In other states such as New York and Colorado, Democrats have campaigned confidently on gun control in more densely populated and diverse areas and pushed for the passage of gun laws, only to see rural voters swing hard against the party in response.
The growing pressure on Florida Republicans may reflect the changing national contours of the gun debate, which for years has been shaped chiefly by ardent supporters of the Second Amendment who vote in force. While several Democratic-leaning states, such as Connecticut and Colorado, passed ambitious gun-violence laws after previous mass shootings, no state wholly controlled by Republicans has enacted legislation even on the comparatively modest scale currently contemplated in Florida.
As a matter of electoral politics, the Republican with the most at stake may be Scott, an ally of Second Amendment groups who has signed a number of laws easing access to firearms. A former hospital executive, Scott has been moving toward a challenge to Sen. Bill Nelson, a long-serving Democrat who supports gun control. Scott has signaled to lawmakers this week that he is eager to embrace some form of a public-safety package, and his political allies believe passing such legislation could be essential to his prospects as a Senate candidate.
Scott has given little indication that he will entertain more aggressive forms of gun control, and allies of Nelson said Tuesday that they are preparing to wage a scathing campaign against Scott's gun record. A commercial blasting Scott for rejecting "policies that could keep Florida children safe" was released this week by Giffords, a gun control group founded by former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., who was shot outside an Arizona supermarket in 2011, and her husband, astronaut Mark Kelly.
Peter Ambler, the group's executive director, said opposing Scott was an urgent priority for the well-funded organization. The legislative activity by Republicans so far, he said, amounts to an effort to do something minimal until the sense of urgency on guns goes away.
"Rick Scott can't be a United States senator," Ambler said, pledging the Giffords group would "make sure that every single voter in Florida is informed about the decline in public and community school safety that the governor is responsible for."
But with a strongly conservative Florida House, Scott is likely to have ample company in his skepticism of new gun laws. And it is still uncertain whether even a modest gun-violence package can clear the state's Legislature. State Rep. Matt Caldwell, a Republican, said he believed it would be a mistake to treat the "availability of guns" as a threat, rather than more general mental health and security concerns. Caldwell said he had spoken privately with Scott and believed the two of them were on the same page.
"He wants to do something that is going to be effective," Caldwell said. "We can't be doing something that just makes us feel good."