The next 24 to 48 hours of racing won't be much fun for mushers as they slog through soft snow and warm weather, making their way to the Yukon River. A mild winter storm is brewing that could bring unseasonably warm, wet and windy conditions to mushers working their way north through the middle third of the race. Unfortunately, rain jackets are not on the list of mandatory musher gear. Sweat, rain and melting snow will deliver misery to racers accustomed to arctic conditions.
Race leaders Lance Mackey of Fairbanks, Sonny Lindner of Two Rivers and Jeff King of Denali Park encountered extremely warm temperatures on yesterday's 80-mile run from Ophir to Iditarod, reaching almost 50 degrees F in the peak of the afternoon sun. Alaska huskies are bred and trained to race best when it's about 50 degrees cooler, and warm temps can bring a fast-trotting team to a crawl.
Mackey described his team as "slower than drool" after he arrived in Iditarod at 8:36 p.m. Thursday to win $3,000 in gold nuggets as the first musher to Iditarod. To counteract the heat, mushers must make frequent stops to let the lethargic dogs roll in the snow. In addition, the dogs' appetite tends to disappear as the mercury rises, compounding the physical challenges of a slow trail.
25% slower from Takotna to Iditarod
Using GPS data from Mackey's tracker, it took him more than 15 hours of travel time to make the 103-mile run from Takotna to Iditarod last night. In the final 20 miles, Mackey's travel speed was in the 4-to-5 mph range, extremely slow for a top team. In 2009, the year of his last championship, Lance made the same trip in just over 12 hours travel time. This huge 25 percent drop in travel time is going to slow the entire field's pace. Mushers always say they come back year after year because the trail is always different. I'll bet that Mackey (and others) wish it were more like 2009 for the next day or two.
The seldom-traveled 135-mile section of trail between Ophir and Shageluk is notorious for being soft and punchy, another factor slowing teams down. Regular snowmachine travel between villages along the Iditarod Trail usually help provide a base for trailbreakers to follow, but the area between Shageluk and Takotna is a winter no-man's land, with only a few hardy trappers occasionally passing though. Usually, Iditarod's snowmachine trailbreakers are the first people to see the abandoned ghost town of Iditarod in winter. If overnight temperatures do not drop below freezing, even the best-made trail will not have time to set up firm for mushers. Early trail reports describe the trail around Iditarod as "oatmeal."
The Iron Dog snowmachine race sends almost 100 sets of tracks over the Iditarod Trail each February EXCEPT for the section of the trail that travels southbound in odd-numbered years. Iron Dog racers always take the northern route via Cripple, Ruby and Galena. Consequently, there is a significant change in trail quality about 15 miles past Ophir where the two trails diverge. Veteran mushers know this, but rookies are usually in for a surprise as the superhighway disappears before their eyes.
How do mushers cope? Dog drivers' contribution to their team's progress becomes paramount in soft slow trail conditions. Extra-wide runner plastic will be used to give the sleds more floatation on the soft trail. Mushers will employ one or two ski poles to assist the dogs, an hours-long aerobic session that only adds to the mushers' fatigue. Mushers will also empty their sleds of any extraneous gear or equipment, trying to lighten the load and make room for tired or overheated dogs in need of rest. In short, mushers will do anything they can to make the dogs' work easier.
Advantage youth and fitness
When the trail conditions go south, look for the younger, fitter, lighter mushers to have a distinct advantage. "The worse the trail, the better I seem to do" is a common refrain from lightweight former collegiate wrestler and defending champion Dallas Seavey. Willow musher DeeDee Jonrowe weighs a dollar and change soaking wet, and is a tenacious runner and athlete in the off-season, often competing in marathons and triathlons for fun.
If I was a sled dog running through soft, deep snow I'd want DeeDee on the back of my sled. Jake Berkowitz can swing a ski pole like Olympian Kikkan Randall, but at nearly 200 pounds, Berkowitz knows his dogs will need to work extra hard when the going gets rough.
Berkowitz was the only musher in the top-10 to take his 24-hour layover in Ophir, which is 23 miles farther up the trail than Takotna, where the so-called "traditionalists" – Aaron Burmeister of Nome, Aliy Zirkle of Two Rivers, Jonrowe of Willow and Mitch and Dallas Seavey spent last night. By taking his 24-hour layover in Ophir, Berkowitz has a run-rest option available only to him that could catapult him into the lead. Rather than running 80 miles straight to Iditarod for a rest, Berkowitz may decide to break the 160 mile run from Ophir to Shageluk into three more-manageable runs of about 50 miles each. To do this requires the discipline of not stopping in Iditarod and a willingness to camp alone in some pretty desolate locations.
This strategy saves the dogs' energy for later in the race, not taxing them to the extreme right after their 24-hour rest. A young musher (yours truly) used this strategy successfully in 2007 to help catapult him from the middle of the pack to an unexpected third-place finish in Nome.
Look for a few of the lead teams to start falling off the pace as mushers realize the need for additional rest in the heat of the day. Dogs based in northern Alaska may start to falter in the unfamiliar racing conditions. Iditarod race record holder John Baker of Kotzebue is a master of the long-game when it comes to distance mushing, but even he cannot make his northern coastal dogs run to the peak of their ability in this warm spell.
Buser advantage evaporating
Buser's lead of six to eight hours on paper seems to be narrowing, as most teams were able to make up some of that gap with longer runs into and out of their 24- hour layovers. Buser needs to run a more measured and regular pace to help his team maintain the speed he needs to stay out front. I'm sure Buser took this into account when devising his race plan, but now he is paying the price for taking his 24 hour rest so early.
By Anvik, the first checkpoint on the mighty Yukon River, race fans will have a better idea which strategy is prevailing. Due to Anvik's location, almost all mushers will stop for a rest, giving us the best insight into how those early race strategies worked, at least midway through the race. Many will opt for their mandatory eight-hour Yukon River rest immediately in Anvik. Until now, relative position has been skewed by start differentials and choice of 24-hour layovers. Once teams reach the Yukon, they will truly be head to head. We can compare positions and travel times, and get a feeling for which teams are surging or falling behind.
Remember, the Iditarod is just reaching the halfway point. There are more than 500 miles of racing to be done and a few of the top teams still have some tricks to play out. Buser is not the only crazy musher in this field.
Zack Steer, a five-time Iditarod finisher, is sitting out this year's race. He owns and operates the Sheep Mountain Lodge with Anjanette and two young boys. Follow Zack's race analysis at Alaska Dispatch.