Iditarod mushers who survived the gantlet of rock, ice and snow through Rainy Pass and the Farewell Burn had little time to contemplate their achievements and good fortune. A couple of hours of damage assessment and makeshift repairs to sleds and bodies were all that was allowed before refocusing on the extremely tight race among the top 10 teams.
The effect of the dismal trail has been well documented and will be the topic of much discussion among mushers and race organizers once the race is complete. Questions are being asked about whether the safety of the drivers and dogs was given enough weight in the decision to proceed with the race on its normal course. The difficulty of organizing a 1,000-mile ultramarathon through the Alaska wilderness has never been more evident. The issue of changing trail conditions is not new, nor is the debate about competition versus safety. There is a lot of second-guessing going on, but for now the attention will return to the race that is still unfolding.
Three different strategies are developing as the race enters the middle third, and I'll detail the pros and cons of each while analyzing some of the top teams' performance.
Rest early (Nikolai)
Four-time champion Martin Buser is repeating last year's strategy of taking an early 24-hour rest after making a nearly nonstop run from the start. His advantage is purely based on time -- more accurately, the lack of time spent resting. In long-distance mushing, there are basically two ways to gain an advantage: Run faster or rest less. If we make the assumption that the top teams are all traveling about the same speed, the musher who rests less will prevail. Buser's strategy tries to take advantage of his team's early endurance to "bank" traveling time while his competition is resting early in the race. He hopes his team can maintain its speed in the last half even with the early rest deficit. Last year's attempt backfired as his team got bogged down breaking trail in tough conditions. This year's trail over the second half of the race looks much more promising for Buser's strategy. The unknown is whether his dogs will perform as well in the second half. Nevertheless, look for Buser to recapture the race lead by Thursday morning.
Rest middle (Takotna/Ophir)
The bulk of the lead teams have chosen the traditional checkpoints of Takotna and Ophir for their 24-hour layovers. Aliy Zirkle, Robert Sorlie, and Dallas and Mitch Seavey have all pulled up in the warm and hospitable village of Takotna within four hours of each other. All had preserved a healthy string of 15 or 16 dogs. All ran the 66 miles nonstop from Nikolai with only a brief check-in at McGrath. A look at the total run time from Nikolai to Takotna will give us some insight into these four teams' speed:
Run times from Nikolai to Takotna (all took less than two minutes rest in McGrath):
• Aliy Zirkle -- 7:27
• Robert Sorlie -- 7:04
• Dallas Seavey -- 7:36
• Mitch Seavey -- 7:38
Sorlie has maintained his team's speed from the start and has a slight advantage over the others. He has overcome early sled troubles and, perhaps, some self-doubt about his return to the Iditarod after his seven-year hiatus. Look for Sorlie to launch strong and revitalized when he leaves Takotna tonight around midnight. Of the four lead teams resting in Takotna, his seems the most likely to excel.
Zirkle must be running close to, or ahead of, her pre-race plan. She is 2.5 hours ahead of her 2013 pace and four hours ahead of her 2012 place at this point in the race. Both of those years Zirkle ended up second in Nome. If Zirkle can leave Takotna with 14 strong dogs, look for her to remain in the mix to the finish.
The apple does not fall far from the tree. Mitch and Dallas Seavey are running almost identical race speeds and strategies. I doubt this was planned ahead -- it is just a fact that both of these top teams are of fairly similar caliber and potential. As Dallas told Iditarod.com in Takotna, "We have both learned from each other. I learned the principles of racing from my dad, but I apply them very differently than he does."
"We are not trying to be anywhere near each other," Mitch Seavey added. "We are both hopefully doing the right thing. That is where it puts us." It will be interesting to see if the Seaveys continue to work together as the race moves forward, or if their plans diverge as they move up the Yukon River.
Young mushers Nick Petit and Joar Ulsom have both decided to travel out of the limelight and hustle of Takotna to rest their team for 24 hours in the sleepy checkpoint of Ophir. Petit made the run to Ophir 83 miles nonstop from Nikolai. This 11-hour run accounts somewhat for his relative slow current travel speed. Petit has made a big gamble that he can rebuild some speed during his team's 24-hour rest. If not, his only choice will be to cut rest if he wants to continue running with the leaders. I have made the mistake of underestimating this musher in the past. We'll see if last year's sixth-place finish was a fluke or not.
Ulsom ran a more conservative schedule to Takotna, breaking up the 83-mile run from Nikolai with a 2.5-hour rest in McGrath. His 15-dog team has posted consistently fast run times since the start in Willow four days ago. I suspect last year's rookie of the year will improve on his seventh-place finish.
Rest long (Cripple and beyond?)
Three contenders have chosen to run past Ophir before taking their 24-hour layovers. Current race leader Sonny Lindner, Aaron Burmeister and Jeff King are all making their way toward the halfway point of Cripple. It is likely, but not certain, that all will choose to rest their dogs in Cripple for 24 hours.
King has got his mojo back and is running a very well-paced race. His run times are fantastic -- he blitzed the run from McGrath to Takotna in less than two hours -- wicked fast for any type of snow condition. King took 15 dogs out of Ophir, which indicates he has a very healthy team, and he continues to travel the course with a caboose sled capable of carrying two or three dogs, giving those dogs a chance to rest while de-powering his team through the difficult sections of trail. During a brief resupply stop in Takotna, King spoke of current trail conditions compared to the previous day: "If it's like this the rest of the way, that was worth it. It's really gorgeous, pretty darn fun." In a race where attitude counts nearly as much as skill in the latter half of the course, King is leading the pack by miles.
Aaron Burmeister appears to be pushing on to Nome despite a serious injury to his knee suffered between Rohn and Nikolai. Mushers work many years to build a team talented enough to win the Iditarod. Aaron sees the potential for victory in his team and has decided to tough it out with a temporary knee brace. He will be the weakest link in his team for the rest of the race, but as long as he can deal with his pain and continue to provide adequate care for his dogs, expect Burmeister to press on. Already, Burmeister has passed a resting Sonny Lindner and looks likely to be the first to Cripple.
Perhaps the most interesting development in the race is the outstanding performance of Sonny Lindner. At 64, Lindner is the oldest musher left in the race. Don't let his age fool you, as Lindner has assembled one of the best kennels of distance sled dogs over his 40-plus years of racing in Alaska. Lindner has bought and bred his way to the top and has been a consistent top finisher in nearly every race he's entered. His easygoing attitude and boyish looks belie the fierce competitor within. He would like nothing more than to add an Iditarod victory to his impressive mushing resume, which includes a Yukon Quest victory three decades ago. Lindner was runner-up by a scant 45 minutes to his good friend Rick Swenson in the 1981 Iditarod. Their friendship has endured over the years, and some people say Lindner has some of Swenson's best dogs in his team this year while the five-time champion sits out his second consecutive race.
Lindner has yet to drop a dog, but I would expect that to change soon. Lindner knows from experience how a large team can be a detriment in the final half of the race due to the extra time required for dog care and management. Bending over to put booties on 64 paws is not an appealing task on the eighth day of the Iditarod.
It is important to note that as the last musher to leave the start line on Sunday, Lindner has a true 24-hour rest to take with no start differential required. His current trail position is even more impressive considering the the more than two hour advantage the first teams had over him at the start. The lower the musher's bib number the longer their 24 hour rest will be after adding the required start differential time. After the start differentials are accounted for during the 24-layovers, Lindner will leap even farther ahead of his competition.
Martin Buser is currently charging up the standings, leaving Takotna at 10:17 Wednesday morning after a 39-minute and already in ninth place. He and early leader Kelly Maixner are the only mushers who had completed their 24-hour layover by Wednesday morning.
Buser will undoubtedly take the lead when the race reaches the Yukon River. How long he can hold it will be the question for another day.
Perhaps lost in all the talk of the trail conditions on the north side of the Alaska Range is the speed of the top racers, who are flying.
Aliy Zirkle reached Takotna more than four hours ahead of John Baker's 2011 record time. If the trail holds up, and the Norton Sound coast is not as bad as feared, we could be looking at a near-record time.
Zack Steer, a five-time Iditarod finisher, owns and operates the Sheep Mountain Lodge with Anjanette and two young boys. Zack will bring a competitive racer's analysis to this year's Iditarod coverage. Follow Zack's race analysis at Alaska Dispatch.