Two Rivers musher Aliy Zirkle maintained her lead as the Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race enters what may prove to be its final full day of competition. There is a dwindling list of mushers within striking distance of Zirkle, including four-time Iditarod race champions Martin Buser and Jeff King. Fellow Two Rivers musher Sonny Lindner and 2012 Iditarod race champion Dallas Seavey are both within four hours of Zirkle, a large but not insurmountable margin.
Zirkle took the lead from Martin Buser employing the same strategy of consistent run and rest schedules she has used since the start of the race. Zirkle has avoided making any extraordinarily long or short runs, allowing her dogs to get into a comfortable and predictable cycle of travel down the 1,000-mile trail. Repeatedly throughout the race, Zirkle has camped out along the trail and given up the comforts of checkpoint amenities in deference to the needs of her dogs. Zirkle runs by her watch and her dogs, disregarding the actions of the mushers around her.
So far, her strategy is working. Zirkle's current team of 11 huskies is approximately 10 hours ahead of John Baker's 2011 race record time at this point in the race. Many of the dogs on her team are veterans of her Iditarod runner-up finishes in 2012 and 2013 -- and of husband Allen Moore's Yukon Quest championship team. Front and center is 7-year-old superstar lead dog Quito, a veteran of five Iditarods and three Yukon Quests.
Buser fading
Martin Buser's early lead has diminished in the last 24 hours, and it appears that his prospects of victory are rapidly fading as faster teams overtake him. Now running third, Buser will need to keep a close eye on the pack of teams behind him as he tries to preserve a top-10 finish, something that has eluded him since 2008.
Up and coming musher Nick Petit scratched in Unalakleet last night, apparently due to his team quitting on him near the end of a marathon run from Nulato. Prior to his scratch, Petit had been posting some of the fastest trail times.
But mushing is not a science, and the musher's ability to accurately gauge his or her dog team at the latter stages of an ultra-marathon takes years to master. Many mushers -- including some of the best -- have experienced a boycott, when the dogs decide they are done racing. At that point the musher has no choice but to rest for a long time, or pull out and regroup for next year. Petit made the choice to go home.
Can King nibble into Zirkle's lead?
In the fall, Jeff King enjoys moose hunting for sport. Today, King will be hunting on the job. Hot on Zirkle's heels, King departed Shaktoolik at 8 a.m. this morning, just 48 minutes behind Zirkle with 12 dogs still on his towline. King continued to pull his "caboose" sled behind the main sled all the way to Shaktoolik, allowing him to rotate dogs for additional rest while traveling down the trail. King dropped the caboose this morning, finally deciding that all the dogs need to be on the line and pulling their weight to the finish. King made up almost 15 minutes on Zirkle between Unalakleet and Shaktoolik. If he can maintain that advantage, nibbling away at her lead, he could catch Zirkle by Nome.
In the mushing game of cat and mouse, the pursuer has the advantage of knowing exactly how long the team in front of them has run and rested. Even if the chaser cannot run faster, that team can always adjust checkpoint rest time to cut the gap. The leader must continue to push his or her dog team without the luxury of knowing what the others are doing behind them. Next to a blowout win, the best position a musher can be in is trailing a slower team along the final checkpoints. It allows the musher the luxury of maximizing rest time without taking unnecessary risks, like skipping a checkpoint or attempting to drive the dogs beyond their ability.
Releasing the Seavey monster
Dallas and Mitch Seavey have chosen to race to Nome rather than to Nikolai, Ruby or Unalakleet. They understand as well as anybody that this is a 1,000-mile race, and midway prizes are of no importance. Absent from the top of the leaderboard until Sunday, the Seaveys are putting on their customary final push.
Dallas ran 125 miles from Kaltag to Shaktoolik in 18 hours with a 3.5 hour rest midway. This is a very manageable pace for his dogs, asking them to run a little more than seven hours straight and dividing the run into two equal portions. The strategy seems to be working well as Dallas posted the fastest time (5 hours, 9 minutes) by far from Unalakleet to Shaktoolik, almost 40 minutes faster than King's quick pace. Dallas still has a large three-hour gap to make up if he wants to catch King and Zirkle, but it is possible if he continues at his current speed.
Dallas was the only musher in the top-20 to postpone taking his mandatory eight-hour Yukon River layover until Kaltag, the final checkpoint on the river. By delaying the rest, Dallas hopes to have the freshest team along the coast. So far it seems to be working. Has the Seavey monster been released?
Mitch Seavey ran a schedule similar to Dallas' from Kaltag, only he took an additional 3.5-hour break in Unalakleet early this morning. Last year's Iditarod champion is hoping that he, too, can outpace the leaders on the final 150 miles, while at the same time fending off his hard-charging son. Mitch's lead dog Tanner was able to help close the gap on Jeff King and Aliy Zirkle during the run up the coast in last year's Iditarod. Look for Tanner to be up front as Mitch tries to repeat.
Meanwhile, 1981 Yukon Quest champion Sonny Lindner continues to keep the field on their toes. Lindner is driving a team composed of his dogs and dogs recently purchased from Lance Mackey. Lindner is obviously trying to channel some of the "Mackey Magic" that guided Lance to four consecutive Iditarod championships, ending in 2010.
I would guess that King, Buser and the elder Seavey appreciate the fact that Lindner is still in the mix and playing the role of "oldest musher" that they've all assumed at various times. These four men have proven for the last three decades that age is no barrier to championship success in the Iditarod.
Two dozen years since a woman won
Zirkle is hoping to prove once again that sex is no barrier to Iditarod championships, either. It has been 24 years since Susan Butcher won her fourth Iditarod championship. For the mushers on the trail, Zirkle is a worthy competitor and a respected dog driver with skill, discipline and a heck of a dog team. But to thousands of race fans Zirkle is much, much more. Her 1,000-watt smile and gregarious personality inspires women (and men) of all ages. There are a lot of Zirkle fans hoping this is her year.
The race trail along the coast is icy and hard, as predicted. Glare, windswept ice will challenge teams already fatigued by more than 800 miles of racing. Although technically challenging for the drivers, the icy trail usually proves to be easy pulling and fast for the dogs. The dogs don't care about the trail, and as long as mushers can keep plastic on their runners the fast times of the 2014 Iditarod are going to continue.
Expect the record pace to continue all the way to the finish.
Zack Steer, a five-time Iditarod finisher, owns and operates the Sheep Mountain Lodge with Anjanette and two young boys. Zack will bring a competitive racer's analysis to this year's Iditarod coverage. Follow Zack's race analysis at Alaska Dispatch.