DILLINGHAM -- As fishing ramps up, Bristol Bay sockeye prices are still an unknown, but several factors could come into play.
According to a report by the McDowell Group, unsold salmon from last year could mean lower prices this season, but less fish forecast to be caught outside of the bay could help prices here.
The McDowell Group's senior fisheries analyst Andy Wink presented a sockeye market outlook commissioned by the Bristol Bay Regional Seafood Development Association at the group's annual meeting in Dillingham in June.
Wink said that net processing revenue on sockeye products was down about 56 percent from May to December of 2014, compared to the year prior, and lower than it has been for the last 10 years.
Typically, that's the result of unsold salmon still in storage, and means that processors have less money to pay for fish this season.
More than 50 million sockeye are expected to return to Bristol Bay this summer, with a harvest of about 40.5 million expected. Wink said the strong catches here could be offset by less salmon expected to come out of other places, including the Fraser River, which added a lot of salmon to the market last summer.
According to the report, about 36 percent of the world's wild sockeye harvest came from Bristol Bay from 2011-2014.
Wink also said that wholesale prices for Alaska salmon have been down so far this year.
How the salmon is used can also impact prices.
In 2013, about 40 percent of Bristol Bay sockeye was turned into frozen headed and gutted fish, with about 38 percent canned.
Wink said the headed and gutted market has declined since 2014, with prices down and more of that form of fish in storage. The lower price is partially the result of an effort to sell the surplus, he said.
The value of frozen headed and gutted fish was down for the May to December sales season in 2014. For those eight months of 2014, 43.4 million pounds of headed and gutted sockeye were sold for about $135.9 million, compared to 35.8 million pounds sold for $147.5 million over the same period in 2013.
The canned market has been weaker in recent years as its consumer market ages, but Wink said that there are some younger consumers and a new market developing, largely health-conscious individuals who are most interested in the nutritional value of canned salmon.
Wink said the other markets for sockeye -- roe and fillets -- have also been weaker.
Wink's report also included some recommendations for impacting prices, including focusing on producing high quality salmon, working to further develop new canned salmon markets, and marketing Bristol Bay sockeye via in-store promotions, similar to what the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute does.
The BBRSDA board also agreed to commission a fall market report this year at its June 6 meeting.
This story first appeared in The Bristol Bay Times/Dutch Harbor Fisherman and is republished here with permission.