Breakup appears to be imminent on the Tanana River at Nenana, perhaps the third-earliest in the history of the Nenana Ice Classic, an annual guessing game where contestants attempt to predict when the river ice will go out in hopes of snagging a big payday.
"The Tanana River ice has thinned out dramatically," said Cherrie Forness, the longtime manager of the competition. The tripod listed downstream at about 5:20 p.m. Monday, but had not moved much as of Tuesday evening.
She said there are multiple signs that the tripod will topple before long -- dark spots that show rotting ice, open water about a half-mile above the tripod and open water about a half-mile below the tripod where the Nenana River is flowing.
She said the tripod listed, perhaps because of rotting ice, but what's holding it in place is that there is not much open water immediately downstream. Until that changes or the river rises, it may stay put, though it hardly looks stable.
"It has not moved enough to stop the clock," she said of the tilting tripod. "Technically the tripod has to move 100 feet to stop the clock, but on occasion the tripod has tipped over and a log has caught the wire and stopped the clock. It's Mother Nature's call. It shouldn't be much longer now.
Temperatures are remaining above freezing at night and rising to the 50s during the day, which is also speeding the arrival of breakup in the area. Until the ice just below the tripod opens up, however, there is no place for it to go. But many factors are at work.
"If the river rises that will help break up the ice and it will all happen a little quicker," she said.
The counting of the tickets is expected to continue for another week, so if the ice goes out shortly there will not be a complete list of winners. From Feb. 1 until April 5, Alaskans bought tickets at $2.50 a pop trying to guess the exact minute of breakup. The winner or winners will split the prize money, which totaled $363,627 in 2014.
The earliest breakup since the Ice Classic began in 1917 occurred on April 20, in both 1940 and 1998. The latest the ice has gone out is May 20, which happened in 1964 and 2013. The ice went out last year on April 25.
The ice has never gone out on April 21 or 22.