In response to the historic sport and commercial fishery closures during 2012, justified by the smallest return of Kenai kings ever observed, the Alaska Board of Fisheries will consider changes in the management of Kenai kings at its upcoming statewide meeting in Anchorage this week.
Three issues will be addressed:
• The new Kenai king escapement goal;
• What will be the basis to trigger management actions by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game to reduce king salmon harvests; and;
• How will the burden of conservation be shared between the sport and commercial set net fisheries.
With Fish and Game's 2013 forecast of 24,000 to 29,000 Kenai kings (making it the lowest or second-lowest projected return on record), it is imperative that the board act in a manner that balances the best means of attaining the escapement goal with the best mix of fishing opportunity during times of low king salmon abundance.
King escapement goal
After a decade of challenges for Kenai kings, Fish and Game has recommended a new escapement goal of 15,000 to 30,000 that is significantly lower than the old goal and brings with it a list of uncertainties. As noted by department staff, there are at least three aspects of their analysis and recommendation that argue for cautious application of this new goal.
• There is no brood-year return data to support a sustainable escapement goal (SEG) of fewer than 26,000;
• An acknowledgement that we are experiencing low production of king salmon, most likely a result of ocean conditions; and
• A so-called expansion factor when using the new Didson sonar counter adds risk to fish stocks.
The Kenai River Sportfishing Association (KRSA) urges a cautionary approach towards the new goal, as more than two-thirds of the new escapement range (15,000–26,000) does not have known escapement where production has been estimated, but instead is based on a modeling exercise based on inferences and extrapolations from very limited data. That's contrary to standard scientific practices.
If escapement projections are low?
When should the ADFG begin to "tap on the brakes" to ensure the escapement of Kenai kings exceeds 15,000? ADFG managers state their precision is roughly plus or minus 7,000 fish (almost half the lower end of the escapement), which makes a precautionary zone extending from 15,000 to 22,000 kings. In this part of the SEG range, managers should begin to tap on the brakes when escapements are projected to fall below a "trigger" of 22,000.
KRSA recommends that there be no specific date on which this call would be made. In-season assessment varies year to year and it is our desire that managers make important calls like this when the data tells them the time is ripe, rather than on a fixed date that may or may not work year to year.
We hope an escapement of at least 15,000 kings will be realized every year. Some will argue that it is okay to pierce through the floor of 15,000, but we feel betting on high future production from very low escapements is a very risky strategy for one of the most iconic fisheries in Alaska -- and our nation.
Sharing the burden of conservation
Sport and commercial set net fisheries must share the burden of conservation when in-season restrictions are required to achieve the Kenai king escapement objective. KRSA recommends a prescriptive and paired step-down restrictions, where if bait is prohibited in the in-river sport fishery then the commercial set net fishery is restricted to no more than 24 hours of fishing per week.
The personal use and marine sport fisheries would also face restriction. If the in-river sport fishery is further restricted to catch and release, then the commercial set net fishery is restricted to one eight-hour opening per week, with closure for both user groups when the escapement is projected below 15,000.
The outcome of such measures would look to achieve escapements above the minimum escapement goal even at low abundances, while providing for no less than two 12-hour periods per week for set net fishing and retention, but no bait for sport fishery. Mangers would use transparent trigger points.
An average exploitation rate consistent with the proposed new escapement goal substantially exceeds the maximum rate estimated at any point in the last three decades. Without prescriptive and paired restrictions in the sport and commercial set net fisheries as the lower bound of the goal is approached, there will be a substantial and unacceptable increased risk to fish. The fish must come first.
Ricky Gease is the executive director of Kenai River Sportfishing Association.
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