The picture of Sen. Lisa Murkowski holding a chair above her head was symbolic of triumph, opportunity and maybe a deal. A call from Sen. Mitch McConnell told her she would be chair of the Senate Committee on Energy starting next year, truly a powerful position, probably beyond the normal reach available to her level of seniority. For at least two years, she controls the gateway to the White House for all legislation on oil and gas, overwhelmingly the critical financial resource for Alaska and many other states.
Her secondary if more immediate goal will be to undercut the environmental and bureaucratic restraints that have slowed down development and kept Alaska's oil companies from drilling in reserves. The speeding up of development in NPR-A offers a more immediate source of development including revenue sharing with the state.
The prime goal, previously embraced by all three of Alaska's representatives, is to change the law on offshore revenue sharing. Alaska was not yet a state when Congress passed legislation that gave the royalty share in offshore development to our Gulf states only. Alaska got left out. Senator Murkowski is now in the lead position to press the case that Alaska and other non-Gulf states should either get 27.5 percent or 37.5 percent in offshore royalties.
The argument is helped by the fact that there is no Chukchi Sea revenue flow right now that could incite excessive revenue envy. The Shell prospect is as good as or better than Prudhoe and can be moved along more quickly under the new Senate power structure. So overall, Sen. Murkowski's deal has had a serious payoff both for her and for the state.
How did she attaine this post? While a denial may be expected, the achievement suggests a prior deal with the new Senate majority leader. What was the deal? Normally a senator would not vigorously campaign against the incumbent senator from the other party in her own state. The odds usually favor an incumbent. The two Alaska senators depend on a level of cooperation and civility, cordiality if not close friendship, to get things done for the state, party loyalty aside. Alaska is one of those states where local goals trump national party goals.
But this election was different. Sen. McConnell and the Republican Senate leadership could smell the possibility of achieving majority status. Alaska was one of a handful of states where victory was achievable. A juicy chairmanship was a tempting offer for abandoning the niceties of interoffice peace.
Murkowski had reasons beyond comity to mute a personal campaign of her own against Sen. Begich. Four years ago, she won re-election only by a write-in campaign, helped by a substantial Democratic vote, having lost the Republican primary. Having sacrificed any remnant of bipartisan credibility, can the senator now expect any Democratic support in 2016? For example, will she rehabilitate herself as a force for moderation and compromise in the upcoming sessions?
Democrats are now considering the possibility of a vigorous campaign against her re-election bid, now two years away. Could Mark Begich be talked into a candidacy? His narrow loss this time (whatever else you may attribute to campaign errors and outside money) is also firmly attributable to the unfavorable, off-presidential year demographic. But Sen. Begich likely has promising alternatives in a presidential appointment allowing continued use of his considerable policy skills. The example of Alaska's Congressman Howard Pollock comes to mind. After he unwisely sought to move up from his U.S. House seat and lost, he was appointed head of NOAA, a huge plum.
Control of the Senate could easily swing back to the Democrats in 2016. Sen. Murkowski then slips to ranking minority member, a long way from the power of the chair. Alaska's special interests, now represented by three Republicans, under a new Democratic president, are likely to get short shrift. That same 2016 Democratic demographic assures that Forrest Dunbar's 40 percent against Congressman Young will rise substantially on his second try. I know we are all sick of politics, but get over it -- 2016 is just around the corner.
John Havelock is a former Alaska attorney general and former White House Fellow. He practices law in Anchorage.
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