Editor's note: This article is written for publication by a federal agency whose goal is to transparently coordinate permitting and construction of a pipeline that delivers Alaska's natural gas to the Lower 48.
Natural gas will show more growth in demand and production worldwide over the next 25 years than any other fossil fuel, the U.S. Energy Information Administration says in its new forecast of global energy use.
Global natural gas demand should rise 52 percent over the next 25 years or so, reaching 169 trillion cubic feet a year in 2035, up from 111 tcf in 2008, the EIA says.
Demand for other fossil fuels such as coal and oil will grow meaningfully, too, the EIA predicts. Coal demand should rise 50 percent and oil 31 percent, the agency says.
For natural gas, demand should grow three times faster in underdeveloped nations -- non-Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries -- than in developed economies like those in the United States, Japan or Germany, the EIA says.
Almost all of the extra gas consumed will get used in industry -- particularly petrochemicals -- and for power generation, rather than for heating and transportation.
All this new demand -- nearly 60 tcf a year more in 2035 than is consumed today -- will be met, with a key role played by three Middle East countries. The EIA predicts Qatar, Iran and Saudi Arabia will provide 13 tcf of the increase. Other non-OECD producers will provide most of the remaining new supply.
Tankers carried liquefied natural gas will shuttle more LNG to countries that use gas but have insufficient production themselves, the EIA says.
U.S. production should rise to 26.4 tcf a year by 2035, from 20.2 tcf a year in 2008. New shale gas production should more than offset fading output from older conventional fields, the EIA says. The agency reiterated its prediction that lingering low gas prices due to shale gas development in North America will keep a gas pipeline from Alaska's Arctic from getting built before 2035. However, the EIA has acknowledged that its shale production forecast could be high, and gas prices could rise faster than predicted, which the EIA said could cause the Lower 48 states to get Alaska gas as much as a decade earlier than 2035.
Bill White is a researcher/writer for the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Alaska Natural Gas Transportation Projects, an office established by the U.S. Congress in 2004 "to expedite and coordinate federal permitting and construction of a pipeline to deliver natural gas from the Arctic to North American markets, and to enhance transparency and predictability of the federal regulatory system for the project." This article first appeared on the Federal Coordinator's website.
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