Tired of Alaska budget sermons? OK, did you know that whatever happens in November, we may get a female president? It is now all but certain that the general election will be Trump v. Clinton. Given that choice, Clinton is a heavy favorite. But don't count Trump out.
Donald Trump surely will easily top Cruz in California, so that's it for Cruz. Forget the palaver about the Republican establishment entering a dark horse at the convention. Even if Trump falls short of an absolute majority, the convention gambit just isn't going to work with Trump outdistancing all the signed-up candidates. Further, Trump is already making peace overtures to the Republican royalty who could put that alternative together. When the Tea Party types see that the alternative is a Democrat who likes blacks and Hispanics, you will see a surprisingly united constituency emerging behind Trump.
The Democrats like The Donald as the beatable candidate but, not so fast. He and Hillary Clinton are not that far apart in current polls. Can Hillary patch things up with Bernie and his huge constituency? To do that she's got to say, "Bernie's description of the domination of the American political system by plutocrats is correct. Even though I have been compelled to use the existing system, he's right and change will be a top priority of my administration." It would be unwise of her not to do that. She's not dumb. So she should hold the enthusiast to her left.
Vice presidential picks also look stylistically fixed. Usually they don't amount to much in terms of election outcome, but this year is exceptional. The growing Hispanic vote is critical to both sides. With the "wall" nonsense, Trump has to write off the Mexican and South American émigrés and their families. But the Cubans are quite another matter and what's more, Florida, loaded with Cubans, is one of the largest electoral prizes. Marco Rubio, the boy senator, is Trump's logical choice. Marco might even help with the generational deficit.
Hillary wants to encourage Hispanic turnout, even if she has the vote by default. Among several prominent Hispanics, she has two terrific, super-bright candidates to choose from, twins in fact. Either Castro twin (despite the name) would work. Joaquin is a Texas congressman. His brother Julian is Obama's Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. The Clinton-Hispanic vote will overwhelm Trump in California (already a Democratic stronghold) but also could turn the tide in Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico with varying influence throughout most of the country. Obama campaigning secures the Black turnout.
So where's the women's vote? Notwithstanding the high negatives on trusting Hillary, a majority of women will vote for their freedom of choice in childbearing. Trump will get a compensating vote from good ole boys. The size of each gender margin is the only question.
What happens after the election? Hillary's lock on experience -- certainly among the most experienced candidates ever to accede to the presidential office, gives her part of the separation from her husband she needs. Bill will have a role but far from a dominant one. She may look for formal distance. An ambassadorship looks too much like banishment but, as experienced lawyers, either Bill or Barack could be her surprise nomination for the Supreme Court.
You ask, what's this about a sure female president? You can't count Trump out given his post-convention unity. Have you seen and heard his daughter Ivanka? It was her dramatic emergence from preoccupation with childbearing -- her third -- that has suddenly straightened out her father to act more "presidential." She is the super smart and well-spoken deputy to the bombastic Donald. Already the senior officer in various Trump enterprises, she talks like the well-educated and sophisticated manager she already is. Ivanka is also gorgeous, which doesn't hurt. Her role in the White House will make the Bush-Chaney relationship look standoffish. With the first Clinton administration, we've had a taste of husband-wife rule. If Trump wins, get ready for the first father-daughter rule or should I say "father-daughter" dynasty?
John Havelock is a former Alaska attorney general and former professor of justice at the University of Alaska Anchorage.
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