As our state moves yet another year closer to implementing its plans for the Arctic, I am reminded of the old military adage: "Every plan is good, until the first shot is fired." Or, to paraphrase the Scottish poet Robert Burns, "The best-laid schemes of mice and men often go awry."
With the year now quickly waning, all eyes are once again beginning to look forward to what 2015 may bring in terms of development in the Arctic. Rumors are already percolating along the waterfront that at least one of the oil majors will resume its exploration plans. As with this year, commercial ship transits along the Northern Sea Route are only expected to increase in 2015 and then exponentially grow in the following years as the Arctic's ice pack continues to recede.
The Arctic nations of our world have now spent the past several years diligently planning out how oil and gas exploration and Arctic shipping activities should best unfold. Contributing to those efforts, Alaska's Arctic Policy Commission (AAPC) has been working now for more than two years casting the foundation for a set of sea plans (or policies, if you prefer) that addresses these kinds of activities. The commission will hold its last public meeting Monday and Tuesday in Anchorage. After that, when the next legislative session of our state convenes in Juneau, a final draft of the commission's work will be delivered to our legislators for their due consideration.
Shortly after this legislative session end, the Arctic will begin its annual thaw, and as that happens, the Arctic will once again be open for our best laid plans to be set in motion. With this, it seems prudent to recognize that the participants in this stage of the Arctic's development no longer be just the policymakers and planners, who have up to now been the main people attempting to tackle the myriad issues surrounding Arctic development. Instead, as our next Arctic summer begins, we may begin to witness a whole new range of characters who will begin involving themselves in Arctic affairs: men and women whose strengths will no longer be in talking but in doing. These people will be the mariners manning the wheel houses, decks and engine rooms of the approaching fleet of vessels and oil rigs that may soon be plying and exploring the regions of our Arctic waters. In large part it will be up to these folks to make many of the plans we as policymakers have made, work. But, as in war (and peace) all may not go as planned. Accepting this, it becomes even more imperative that we hear from the voices of Arctic mariners so that they might impart to this commission their local knowledge of what actually transpires on the waterfront in this clime.
With these thoughts in mind and as the AAPC heads into its last public meeting, I personally encourage all mariners who have yet to speak and whose career paths are merging toward the Arctic to review the commission's work and offer further public comment where appropriate. In that vein, as one of the public members on this commission, I would have one question for you: What, if anything, have we missed or overlooked in our deliberations? Given the impact(s) that our commission's policies may ultimately create for our state (and nation), that also seems a plausible question to pose to all others who have taken the time to follow the commission's work.
As with any long voyage of exploration, with a solid sea plan in place, coupled with a set of steady hands at the helm and a little luck, our good ship of state stands a reasonably good chance of avoiding going completely "awry" in its Arctic endeavors.
Capt. Pete Garay has been working as a state-licensed marine pilot in Alaska for more than two decades. He currently serves as one of the public commissioners on Alaska's Arctic Policy Commission.
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