Alaska’s total commercial salmon harvest this year was ultra-low in both quantity and value

The number of Alaska salmon harvested by commercial fishers was the third smallest since all-species records began in 1985, and the value to harvesters, when adjusted for inflation, was the lowest reported since 1975, state officials said.

Additionally, the 450 million pounds of salmon that the total harvest contained was the lowest on record, officials said.

The totals come from a preliminary recap of this year’s salmon season issued on Nov. 18 by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game.

Only 101.2 million salmon were harvested this year, less than half the 232.2 million harvested last year, the department reported. The money paid to fishers for their catches, known as ex-vessel value, totaled $304 million, down from $398 million last year, the department said,

The poor results from this year’s salmon harvests are part of a multitude of troubles in Alaska’s seafood industry, a key economic sector in the state.

“The numbers speak for themselves,” said Forrest Bowers, acting director of the department’s Division of Commercial Fisheries.

[Alaska seafood processing workers made more money in 2023, but there were fewer of them]

In some ways, a low total harvest was expected, Bowers said.

The preseason forecast anticipated a smaller overall return of pink salmon, also called humpback salmon, the most plentiful and lowest-priced of Alaska’s five salmon species, he said. Pink salmon have a two-year life cycle, and the returns in even-numbered years are usually smaller than those in odd-numbered years, he noted.

The difference between even- and odd-numbered years is only one of many factors considered when state biologists make preseason salmon forecasts. Among the other factors are past runs’ performances, specific areas’ spawning needs and the successes or difficulties experienced by different age groups of fish.

This year’s pink salmon return was much weaker than anticipated, even for an even-numbered year, Bowers said.

The pink salmon harvest wound up being only 58% of what had been expected at the start of the season, according to the department.

While harvests of sockeye and chinook salmon turned out to be a bit higher than what was forecasted at the start of the season, the poor pink returns, along with lower-than-expected harvests of coho salmon, also called silver salmon, and chum salmon.

In all, the 2024 salmon harvest was 25% lower than the 135.7 million fish anticipated in the preseason forecast, according to the department.

The statewide sockeye salmon harvest provided some brighter spots in the mostly dim state picture.

Sockeye salmon, also known as red salmon, accounted for about two-thirds of this year’s total value to fishers and 42% of the total harvest, according to the department’s information. In most of the salmon-harvesting regions, the catch of sockeye was the most valuable species harvested, according to the information.

In the Bristol Bay region, site of the world’s biggest sockeye runs, this year’s return was well above projections and 7% higher than the 20-year average, though the amount commercially harvested was a bit below the average. In that region, the average fish size this year was the smallest on record, part of a long-term trend toward smaller fish sizes for Pacific salmon.

Bowers said the size of Alaska’s 2024 salmon harvest should be kept in perspective, even if the numbers “are seen as a shock to many folks.”

Big harvests have been common in recent years, he noted. Of the 10 years in which Alaska had salmon harvests exceeding 200 million fish, six have been since the record year of 2013, when commercial fishers caught 280 million salmon, he said.

“We’re in a period of relatively high salmon abundance,” he said. “I sort of view 2024 as a bit of an outlier.”

There have been some recent small-harvest years, too, he said. The 2016 total commercial salmon harvest was only 111 million fish, and the 2018 harvest was 114 million fish, he said. Those were both even-numbered years, meaning years with lower pink salmon runs, he noted.

He expects improvements next year, he said. Early indications are that the total will be between 150 million and 200 million fish, he said.

The recently released preseason forecast for next year’s Bristol Bay salmon season is somewhat upbeat, at least when it comes to fish quantity. The 2025 sockeye run there is expected to be more than a third above the long-term average.

Originally published by the Alaska Beacon, an independent, nonpartisan news organization that covers Alaska state government.