Polling reveals how Alaskans' political views have changed in recent years

A look back at quarterly polls since 2010 by Alaska Survey Research shows a trend of generally positive views held by Alaskans about their congressional delegation and Gov. Bill Walker, though Rep. Don Young's support has waned a bit over time.

Every three months, the research firm, run by Alaska pollster Ivan Moore, asks around 650 Alaskans how they feel about elected officials, using the same wording each time. The questions are included in longer surveys with multiple clients, and the surveys are mostly non-political questions. Strung together, these snapshots in time provide a broader look at the shifting opinions of Alaskans.

The data also shows how Alaskans think of themselves when it comes to politics, and the trend is decidedly toward identifying as a moderate instead of a conservative. Roughly one-fifth of those polled consider themselves progressive, and that has remained steady over time.

In the latest poll, taken last month on landlines and cellphones, the firm asked self-identified registered voters about a few extra people: former Gov. Sean Parnell, radio personality Joe Miller and former Gov. Sarah Palin. The latter has been in the news lately thanks to her stump support for presidential candidate Donald Trump. The first two are routinely suggested as potential challengers for Murkowski in the August Republican primary, which Alaskans were also asked about.

Murkowski, Miller and Parnell

Alaska's senior senator, Lisa Murkowski, won her last election in 2010 with 35.49 percent of the vote after losing the Republican primary to Joe Miller. So how's she doing now?

Nearly half of self-identified voters polled in March said they have a "very positive" or "somewhat positive" view of Murkowski, compared to 26.7 percent who had a somewhat or very negative view about her. Less than five percent of those polled weren't sure who she is and 19.5 percent had a neutral view of her.

In quarterly polls going back to 2010 -- her last election -- Murkowski's negative ratings have remained remarkably consistent, in the 27-29 percent range. During her last six years in office, her positive ratings fell and "neutral" feelings rose over time.

In the March poll, a subset of the 650 self-identified registered voters said they would prefer to vote on the Republican ballot in a primary, and those Alaskans were asked to choose between Murkowski and two potential challengers: Joe Miller and Sean Parnell.

Murkowski bested both of them in the small sample, beating Miller 53.9 percent to 37 percent (with 9.1 percent undecided) and Parnell by a closer margin of 48.1 percent to 43.8 percent (8.1 percent were undecided).

Alaska Survey Research also asked 650 Alaskans more generally how they felt about Parnell and Miller in the March poll.

Parnell had higher positive ratings -- 36.6 percent -- and a 28.9 percent negative rating from those polled. Eleven percent of those polled weren't sure who he is.

Palin

Alaskans polled last month didn't think too highly of former Gov. Sarah Palin: 56.4 percent had a negative opinion of her. Just 23.8 percent of those polled said they had a positive opinion of her -- only 7.9 percent "very positive."

Compared to quarterly polling in which Alaska Survey Research asked about Palin in 2010 and 2011, her negative ratings have stayed high -- around 50 percent, and her positive ratings have dropped from a high of around 42 percent. In 2010 and 2011, zero people polled said they didn't know who she is -- a figure that rose to 2.2 percent in the latest poll.

Young

Rep. Don Young, who has held his office since 1973, has seen a downward trend in popularity since 2010, when 45 percent of polled Alaskans reported a positive opinion of him. In March 2016, 37 percent said they had a positive opinion of him.

But over the last six years, Young's negative ratings -- around 37 percent -- have remained fairly steady. Currently, a boost in people with "neutral" thoughts on Young is accounting for the drop in positive opinions.

Young also saw spikes in his positive ratings around election time in 2010 and 2012, but not in 2014. Nevertheless, Young beat Democrat Forrest Dunbar by 10 percentage points in his last race.

Sullivan and Walker

Alaska's junior senator, Dan Sullivan, has until 2020 before he has to face the voting booth again, but quarterly polls indicate he's doing well in the eyes of Alaska voters. The same goes for Gov. Bill Walker, whose term is up in 2018.

Voters' positive views of Sullivan have risen since January 2014, when Moore began quarterly polling in advance of Sullivan's first election, from 28 percent to 43 percent last month. His negative ratings have remained somewhat steady, moving from 22 percent up to 26 percent, and his name recognition has improved dramatically, from 32 percent of voters asking "who?" at the start of 2014 to just 7 percent of voters in March this year.

Quarterly polling on Gov. Bill Walker began in March 2014, when 26 percent of those polled had a positive opinion of him and a whopping 45 percent weren't sure who he was. Now 46 percent of those polled have a positive opinion of Walker and just 14 percent don't know him. Walker's negative ratings went from a low of 8 percent at the start to 20 percent in March. Around 20 percent have remained neutral toward Walker over the last two years.