In West Anchorage Assembly special election, Austin Quinn-Davidson holds big lead

Anchorage attorney Austin Quinn-Davidson had a commanding lead over her opponents Tuesday night in a special election for a vacant West Anchorage Assembly seat, according to preliminary results.

Turnout was about 20 percent, with around 7,200 votes tallied and hundreds still to be counted in the unusual midsummer race, which was triggered when West Anchorage Assemblyman Tim Steele resigned in June for health reasons.

This was the city's second time conducting a major election primarily by mail. Voting began several weeks ago, and the last day to vote was Tuesday.

Quinn-Davidson had nearly 50 percent of the vote, with 3,492 ballots cast in her favor. Nikki Rose had 31 percent, or 2,219 votes. In third place was Sam Moore, at about 10 percent of the vote, or 693 votes.

On Wednesday, officials will count about 850 ballots collected Tuesday afternoon and evening from drop boxes and accessible vote centers. An unknown number of ballots are also expected to arrive in the mail over the next few days. Ballots postmarked on or before Election Day will be counted until Aug. 17.

Quinn-Davidson declared victory late Tuesday night, after seeing her 18-point lead in the preliminary results.

"I'm feeling really confident, and really happy to have all the support we have," Quinn-Davidson, the legal affairs director for Great Land Trust, said in a phone interview.

Rose said in a phone interview that she wasn't quite ready to concede the race until more of the outstanding ballots had been counted.

Quinn-Davidson is expected to be ideologically aligned with the policies of Mayor Ethan Berkowitz, as was her predecessor, Steele. City elections are considered nonpartisan, but candidates and donors often ally themselves along party lines. Quinn-Davidson is a registered nonpartisan, but she attracted progressive support during her campaign and used an Alaska Democratic Party voter database.

The mayor is a registered Democrat; Rose and Moore are both registered Republicans.

Ira Perman, the executive director of the Atwood Foundation, was appointed to serve on the Assembly until the newly elected member is sworn in later this month.

The West Anchorage Assembly district generally runs south of Westchester Lagoon, west of Arctic Boulevard down to Tudor Road, from C Street to 76th Avenue, and then from Minnesota Drive to West Dimond Boulevard and Campbell Lake.

In mid-July, elections officials mailed ballot packages to 39,934 West Anchorage voters. It's a time when most Anchorage residents are more preoccupied with fishing, camping or hiking, officials acknowledged.

Election coordinators tried a few new tactics to get voters' attention about the race, including a booth at the Spenard farmers market and food trucks on Election Day.

Turnout did appear on track to be lower than recent West Anchorage Assembly races held during the city's regular April election. In 2016, a competitive and expensive three-way Assembly race drew 9,828 votes, or 26 percent turnout. Eric Croft, the other sitting West Anchorage Assembly member, was elected to his first term over Perman in that race.

In 2017, when Steele was elected to his second term in a race with little advertising, turnout was about 23 percent, with 8,695 votes cast.

The campaign to replace Steele happened at a sprint pace. His resignation was sudden, and candidates had about six weeks before voting started to file paperwork, build websites and wage campaigns through social media, signs, door-knocking and direct mail. The typical series of forums and debates, hosted by community councils, churches or other neighborhood organizations, went unscheduled.

With the abbreviated timeframe, fundraising was also well below what has been raised in the past in competitive West Anchorage elections, records show. In 2016, Croft raised more than $100,000 for his campaign.

Quinn-Davidson, who appeared to be the biggest fundraiser, was on track to raise below $50,000 as of Tuesday. Rose raised roughly $10,000 and Moore raised close to $6,000, according to the latest campaign finance reports. Fundraising doesn't necessarily predict the outcome of a campaign but it does suggest who may have an edge in political messaging.

When it came to city issues, Quinn-Davidson, Rose and Moore shared a main talking point: crime. All had different ideas for how they'd approach the city's rising rates of property crime.

Quinn-Davidson said she supported Berkowitz's efforts to grow the Anchorage Police Department. She has previously said she planned to delve more into the root causes of crime if elected.