With Alaska outmigration continuing, community members contemplate responses

As Alaskans from different organizations convened at the University of Alaska Anchorage to brainstorm ways to reverse the state’s continuing population outmigration, a leading state economist delivered some bad news.

Dan Robinson, research chief at the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, revealed that the latest data shows that Alaska has now had 12 consecutive years with more residents leaving than arriving.

That is unprecedented, he said.

“This is not normal for us. It hasn’t happened before,” Robinson said on Thursday at the start of the two-day meeting.

The longest prior streak was four years, he said.

Robinson spoke at a meeting organized by Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, UAA’s Institute of Social and Economic Research, the Alaska Federation of Natives and the First Alaskans Institute

Behind the outmigration statistics are specific patterns, he said.

The driver is not really the Alaskans who are leaving, he said. In 2023, 40,924 people moved out of the state, a smaller total than in any year since 2010, according to the department’s data. Rather, he said, is it the lack of people who are coming to Alaska. Less is known about them than about neighbors moving away, he said. “It’s harder to tell stories about the people who don’t come,” he said.

Particularly important is the age of those who are not coming to Alaska, Robinson said. “Historically, our biggest net gains have been people in the second half of their 20s and 30s,” he said. Part of that is because of the military, and partly that is because Alaska is “an adventurous kind of place,” he said.

Added to the lack of new young adult Alaskans is the continued phenomenon of college-age Alaskans who leave the state to attend school in the Lower 48, he said. The result is less economic vitality, he said. “It’s not a healthy sign,” he said.

Even before the current outmigration streak started, Alaska’s population ebbs and flows were the subject of much study. Those studies have been aided by a uniquely Alaska institution: the Alaska Permanent Fund dividend. Receipt of that annual payout is a metric frequently used to define Alaska residency.

Mike Jones, an assistant economics professor working at ISER, ran through some of the Alaska population findings that have emerged over the years.

Within Alaska, factors affecting migration from rural to urban areas or between rural areas include reliance on and success with subsistence food harvests, availability of water and sewer service and rates of violent crime, past research has found, he said.

Within urban Alaska, there are also patterns.

Some of the most recent analysis reveals that population loss in Alaska’s largest city appears to be driven by military personnel reductions, according to a new analysis in Alaska Economic Trends, the monthly magazine of the Department of Labor and Workforce Development’s research division.

The outflow of Anchorage residents over the last 14 years has largely been driven by reductions at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, that analysis found. The combined U.S. Air Force and U.S. Army base lost over 2,600 people from 2010 to 2023, more than Anchorage’s overall loss of 2,173 people during the same period, according to the analysis.

Meanwhile, Alaska’s long-term overall demographic outlook appears dim. State demographers, in their most recent forecast, are predicting a population decline by mid-century that is driven by outmigration, reduced birth rates and the aging of residents.

Peltola, during a break in the sessions, said she was inspired to help organize the event because of widespread concern about Alaska’s dwindling working-age population.

During her two years in office and throughout her travels and discussions with people from different communities, industries and sectors, she heard a similar refrain about Alaska’s demographic trends, she said.

“Everyone is concerned about outmigration and not enough people in the employment pool to draw from,” she said.

Beyond in-state residents and new arrivals who used to be attracted to Alaska, Alaska has long depended on foreign workers who have special authorizations, known as J-1 visas, that allow them to be employed in seasonal industries, she noted.

Now the need for workers with J-1 visas appears to be more acute – and employers are seeking such workers even for winter duty, she said. She addressed that issue in her opening remarks.

“We need J-1 visas like nobody’s business, because we need foreign people to come and help us fill our sectors,” she said in her opening remarks.

Visas under the J-1 program and another program called H-2 have long been used to fill seasonal jobs in Alaska like seafood and tourism.

Peltola’s main election opponent, Republican Nick Begich, has attacked the Biden-Harris administration over immigration policies – and tied Peltola to those policies.

His campaign office did not immediately provide information on his views about reversing Alaska’s continued outmigration. However, the National Republican Congressional Committee on Thursday criticized Peltola’s comments about J-1 visa workers in Alaska.

“No wonder Mary Peltola aided and abetted Biden and Harris unleashing this historic border crisis. Peltola thinks foreigners should fill Alaska jobs, not Americans,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Ben Peterson said in an emailed statement.

Originally published by the Alaska Beacon, an independent, nonpartisan news organization that covers Alaska state government.

[Clarification: This article has been updated to more clearly define the visas used by seafood workers.]