Tracking COVID-19 in Alaska: 427 new cases while ICUs remain strained

Alaska reported 427 new COVID-19 cases on Monday and no new deaths, according to the state Department of Health and Social Services.

In total, 175 Alaskans and one nonresident with COVID-19 have died since the pandemic began here in March. Alaska’s overall death rate per capita is among the lowest in the country, but officials say it’s difficult to compare Alaska to other states because of its vast geography and vulnerable health care system.

A modeling tool on the state’s data dashboard Monday showed case numbers starting to level off. But the health department has said its ability to report all cases in a timely way has been limited, and that recent case counts underestimate the true number of statewide infections.

The high case numbers have meant increased hospitalizations and deaths. The state on Saturday recorded its largest daily increase in reported deaths with 18, five of which occurred recently.

By Monday, there were 133 people with COVID-19 hospitalized statewide and another seven people in hospitals who were suspected to have the virus. In total, 14.2% of people hospitalized in Alaska had COVID-19.

Throughout the state there were 35 staffed intensive care unit beds left open. In Anchorage, where the state’s sickest patients often end up, only five of 72 intensive care unit beds were available.

The number of available staffed ICU beds there in December has ranged from five to 18 beds, after reaching a low of just one available bed on Nov. 30, according to a report from the city’s health department. Hospitals have the capacity to shift their staffing around if they run out of staffed ICU beds.

In total, approximately 15% of COVID-19 patients in Anchorage have required hospitalization. National data shows that about half of COVID patients require hospital stays of longer than a week.

[Alaska’s first shipment of COVID-19 vaccine has arrived in Anchorage]

Of the 420 new cases reported in Alaska residents Monday, there were 194 in Anchorage plus six in Chugiak, and nine in Eagle River; three in Homer; four in Kenai; one in Nikiski; two in Seward; three in Soldotna; one in Sterling; ten in Kodiak; one in Cordova; one in Valdez; one in Healy; 62 in Fairbanks; 15 in North Pole; four in Delta Junction; two in Tok; 10 in Palmer; seven in Wasilla; two in Nome; one in Prudhoe Bay; 19 in Utqiagvik; one in Kotzebue; three in Juneau; one in Ketchikan; two in Sitka; 14 in Bethel; one in Dillingham; one in Hooper Bay; and 16 in the Kusilvak Census Area.

Among communities smaller than 1,000 people not named to protect privacy, there was one in the southern Kenai Peninsula Borough; one in the Kodiak Island Borough; six in the Fairbanks North Star Borough; three in the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area; one in the Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area; one in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough; three in the North Slope Borough; five in the Bethel Census Area; one in Bristol Bay plus Lake and Peninsula Area; and one in the Dillingham Census Area.

Of the seven new cases reported in nonresidents, there were three in Anchorage, one in Soldotna, and three in an unidentified region of the state.

While people might get tested more than once, each case reported by the state health department represents only one person.

It is not clear how many of the people who tested positive were showing symptoms. The CDC estimates about a third of people with coronavirus infections are asymptomatic.

The statewide test positivity rate fell to 5.33% during the last week, after reaching a peak of over 9% in mid-November. Health officials said that a positivity rate above 5% can indicate widespread community transmission.

- Annie Berman