Egg prices continue to climb amid the bird flu outbreak

Photos of bare grocery refrigerator cases and tales of egg prices gone wild have been rampant on social media this winter.

The scenes aren’t manufactured drama. The U.S. Department of Agriculture noted last week that some grocery stores have been limiting the number of cartons customers can buy and hanging signs announcing shortages where cartons of eggs would normally be stacked.

The bird flu outbreak behind the shortages began affecting U.S. chickens in 2022, and prices are still rising. Adding to consumers’ woes, experts say that prices now could rise in Michigan and Colorado as the states join others requiring all eggs to come from chickens raised without cages. Here’s how much - and why - you might be shelling out more than ever.

How much are eggs?

Prices differ widely, of course, depending on geographic area and individual retailers. But nationwide, the consumer price index puts the cost at $3.65 for a dozen regular large white eggs in November (the latest available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics).

That’s higher than they were last year at the same time, when the price was $2.14, and far more than 2016, when the purchase would set you back only $1.32.

Why are they so expensive?

Experts say it’s a classic case of supply and demand. According to the USDA, nearly 40 million commercial egg-laying hens across the country were lost last year to the H5N1 strain of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and fires. The losses were especially high in December, the agency noted, which coincided with the usual peak holiday demand for eggs, leading to “record-high wholesale and retail prices.”

And on the demand side, it’s not just the rise in holiday sales: The volume of eggs sold at retail has been up year over year for 21 consecutive months, according to the American Egg Board, which attributes Americans’ appetite to a number of factors, including the emphasis many people are placing on protein in their diets.

“These two forces combined - tight supply and high demand - are directly causing the spike in wholesale prices we’ve seen recently,” Egg Board CEO Emily Metz said in an emailed statement to The Washington Post.

Egg prices are particularly sensitive, too, more so than those of many other grocery items. Dan Sumner, an agricultural economist at the University of California Davis, says eggs are considered “inelastic” - that is, shoppers have a hard time finding a substitute for them. “And so (if there is) a small change in the quantity of eggs available, the price goes up a lot,” he said.

Will they get cheaper?

Don’t expect a price drop anytime soon, experts say. The latest projections from the USDA suggest that egg prices are expected to climb even higher in 2025, given the continued bird flu threat. USDA economist Megan Sweitzer said the agency is predicting another price increase this year, of 11.4, assuming the avian flu remains a problem. “We’re still seeing egg-laying flocks being affected by the avian influenza,” she said in a radio interview posted last month on the USDA’s website.

And Michael Persia, a professor of poultry nutrition and management at Virginia Tech, says the extended duration of the outbreak has made it harder for the industry to make up the losses in egg production. “Over the past three years, we’ve seen significant reductions in our flocks, and at this point, there’s a bottleneck in that replacement, because the entire mechanism that generates all of these birds is stretched to the limit,” he said.

The new laws in Colorado and Michigan, too, might push prices higher “because cage-free production is more costly,” Sumner said.

Incoming president Donald Trump may be hard-pressed to fix the problem. Eggs were among the groceries he displayed at a campaign event at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey, in August, along with other staples such as milk, cereal and coffee - and he attributed the price hikes to his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, echoing repeated promises that he would bring down the cost of food. But in a November interview following his election, he was less confident. “I’d like to bring them down,” he told Time magazine. “It’s hard to bring things down once they’re up. You know, it’s very hard.”

What about poultry prices?

Farms that grow birds for eating (a.k.a. “broilers”) have been far less affected by the avian flu than those that raise laying hens. Persia notes that this particular virus mostly affects older birds; broilers are typically harvested at 6 to 8 weeks age, while egg-laying hens can be as old as 2 years, he said.

Still, the companies that provide the chicken in your grocery case are taking some hits, as they euthanize any flocks where the flu is detected. In Delaware this week, a farm destroyed birds on its property after tests came back positive for H5N1, marking the first such instance in that state.

But Sumner noted that it’s relatively easy for poultry farmers to replace the young broilers, as long as the number of affected birds remains relatively low. “It does reduce the supply, but since you’re coming back with new broilers very quickly,” he said, “it would take a really massive change to affect the quantity supplied, and therefore the price.”

The USDA is forecasting that supplies of broilers will be up in 2025.

Are eggs and poultry safe to eat during the bird flu outbreak?

News last week that a Louisiana man had died of avian influenza - the first instance of a human with a fatal case of the virus in the United States - has made many people more nervous. But health officials say that the risk to people is low and note that many of those who have contracted the disease had contact directly with animals, primarily as farm workers.

Persia, echoing the Food and Drug Administration’s guidance, points to screening by food producers and the quick onset of the disease among chickens - which quickly alerts farmers to the presence of the virus - as reasons consumers should feel confident. The FDA said the chances of contaminated egg shells making it to a grocery shelf is “low.”

“From a safety standpoint, I’ve never viewed this, and I continue to not view this as any sort of food safety issue,” Persia said.

The FDA said people can lower their risk even further by properly storing and preparing their food. The agency recommends storing eggs in the refrigerator, as well as cooking eggs “until both the yolk and the white are firm.” Dishes containing eggs, such as casseroles, should be cooked to 160 degrees.

Consumers should be cautious about their milk, too, the FDA has said. Despite its name, avian flu has spread to dairy cows. And while federal officials say that the nation’s milk supply is safe, they are referring only to pasteurized milk. “Because raw milk has the potential to contain viable (live) HPAI H5N1 virus, it represents a potential route of consumer exposure to the virus,” the agency said in a June letter to state health officials. (Raw milk is not permitted in interstate commerce, but some states allow sales within the state.) In November, raw milk sold at a California market tested positive for the virus.